To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure email@example.com
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty.
Face up to uncertainty
Deconstruct the problem
Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases)
Models can be helpful, but also dangerous
Think about adaptability and resilience
Bring people with you
These were arrived at following extensive discussions and literature reviews over a 5-year period. While this is an important topic for actuaries, the intended audience is any decision maker or advisor in any sector (public or private).
Natural living conductive biofilms transport electrons between electrodes and cells, as well as among cells fixed within the film, catalyzing an array of reactions from acetate oxidation to CO2 reduction. Synthetic biology offers tools to modify or improve electron transport through biofilms, creating a new class of engineered living conductive materials. Engineered living conductive materials could be used in a range of applications for which traditional conducting polymers are not appropriate, including improved catalytic coatings for microbial fuel-cell electrodes, self-powered sensors for austere environments, and next-generation living components of bioelectronic devices that interact with the human microbiome.
A core question in the debate about how to organise mental healthcare is whether in- and out-patient treatment should be provided by the same (personal continuity) or different psychiatrists (specialisation). The controversial debate drives costly organisational changes in several European countries, which have gone in opposing directions. The existing evidence is based on small and low-quality studies which tend to favour whatever the new experimental organisation is.
We compared 1-year clinical outcomes of personal continuity and specialisation in routine care in a large scale study across five European countries.
This is a 1-year prospective natural experiment conducted in Belgium, England, Germany, Italy and Poland. In all these countries, both personal continuity and specialisation exist in routine care. Eligible patients were admitted for psychiatric in-patient treatment (18 years of age), and clinically diagnosed with a psychotic, mood or anxiety/somatisation disorder.
Outcomes were assessed 1 year after the index admission. The primary outcome was re-hospitalisation and analysed for the full sample and subgroups defined by country, and different socio-demographic and clinical criteria. Secondary outcomes were total number of inpatient days, involuntary re-admissions, adverse events and patients’ social situation. Outcomes were compared through mixed regression models in intention-to-treat analyses. The study is registered (ISRCTN40256812).
We consecutively recruited 7302 patients; 6369 (87.2%) were followed-up. No statistically significant differences were found in re-hospitalisation, neither overall (adjusted percentages: 38.9% in personal continuity, 37.1% in specialisation; odds ratio = 1.08; confidence interval 0.94–1.25; p = 0.28) nor for any of the considered subgroups. There were no significant differences in any of the secondary outcomes.
Whether the same or different psychiatrists provide in- and out-patient treatment appears to have no substantial impact on patient outcomes over a 1-year period. Initiatives to improve long-term outcomes of psychiatric patients may focus on aspects other than the organisation of personal continuity v. specialisation.
With their sizes larger than 0.7 Mpc, Giant Radio Galaxies (GRGs) are the largest individual objects in the Universe. To date, the reason why they reach such enormous extensions is still unclear. One of the proposed scenarios suggests that they are the result of multiple episodes of jet activity. Cross-correlating the INTEGRAL+Swift AGN population with radio catalogues (NVSS, FIRST, SUMSS), we found that 22% of the sources are GRG (a factor four higher than those selected from radio catalogues). Remarkably, all of the sources in the sample show signs of restarting radio activity. The X-ray properties are consistent with this scenario, the sources being in a high-accretion, high-luminosity state with respect to the previous activity responsible for the radio lobes.
The cosmic ray array at Buckland Park is being developed to extend its useful collecting area at 1016 eV to ∼105m2 so that anisotropy measurements can be made at higher energies than previously possible with that system. A new array is also being designed to assist with this investigation. Design considerations for the new arrays are discussed.
A search has been made using the Buckland Park air shower array for evidence of any excess of events from the direction of the recent supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud. Upper limits resulting from this search and their significance are discussed in this paper.
Several extragalactic HI surveys using a λ21 cm 13-beam focal plane array will begin in early 1997 using the Parkes 64 m telescope. These surveys are designed to detect efficiently nearby galaxies that have failed to be identified optically because of low optical surface brightness or high optical extinction. We discuss scientific and technical aspects of the multibeam receiver, including astronomical objectives, feed, receiver and correlator design and data acquisition. A comparison with other telescopes shows that the Parkes multibeam receiver has significant speed advantages for any large-area λ21 cm galaxy survey in the velocity range range 0–14000 km s−1.
We report here a search of data recorded by the Buckland Park air shower array from the first year after the supernova and set an upper limit to the proton luminosity of SN1987A of 7.7 × 1040 ergs s−1.
An analysis has been made of events recorded in one year from the direction of the active galaxy Centaurus A using the Buckland Park UHE gamma-ray telescope. No statistically significant excess was observed over this period. Data collected between 1984 and 1989 show evidence for an excess of events from this direction at shower sizes in the range of 2 × 105 to 5 × 105 particles.
The extreme isotropy of cosmic ray events allows one to put upper limits on any possible non-isotropic contribution to the flux. In particular, one can investigate any excess of events which may be confined to the galactic plane. Such extra events would be expected from galactic ultra-high-energy (UHE) gamma-ray sources. Under the assumption of an isotropic cosmic ray flux, recent Buckland Park data place a 95% confidence level limit on the total southern hemisphere (declination −15° to −55°) flux of UHE gamma-rays at between 0.6 and 6 equivalent Cygnus X-3 sources, depending on assumptions concerning the gamma-ray spectrum.
Fracking is a controversial practice but is thriving in many areas. We combine a comprehensive data set on local bans and moratoria in the state of New York with local-level census data and spatial characteristics in a spatial econometric analysis of local fracking policies. Some factors, including location in the Utica shale, proportion of registered Democrats, and education level, increase the probability of restrictions on fracking. Extent of local land development, location in highly productive petroleum areas, and number of extant oil and gas wells are among factors that have a negative impact on the likelihood of a ban or moratorium.
A cloud monitor has been developed for use with cosmic ray air shower fluorescence detectors, the High Resolution Fly's Eye and the Pierre Auger Observatory. This is based on an infrared thermopile device which, unlike previous such monitors, requires no moving chopper and is suitable for unattended operation over long periods of time.
Cadmium, chromium, copper, nickel, lead and zinc concentrations in the bivalve mollusc Macoma balthica and the polychaete annelids Hediste diversicolor and Arenicola marina were measured, during winter and summer, at sites throughout the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel. The mean concentration of each metal in A. marina was greater in the lower Severn Estuary than in the far less contaminated outer Bristol Channel and the concentration of a given metal, e.g. Cr, in a species occasionally peaked at a site, reflecting local metal contamination. The concentrations of each metal in each of these biomonitor species almost invariably differed significantly among sites and often seasons and there were sometimes interactions between site and season. This indicates that the various factors that determine the concentration of a metal in a species operate in a complex manner and that their individual effects can vary among sites and/or seasons. The rank order of each metal concentration in each species at a site within the estuary frequently did not match the sequence for the concentration of that metal measured in the sediment at that site at the same time. This lack of correspondence is likely to be due, at least in part, to one or both of the following: (1) variations in the bioavailability of certain metals among sites due to differences in such features as the metal-binding properties of the sediments; (2) the effects of the constant transport and redistribution of the sediments and thus also of their associated trace metals by the very strong tidal action that characterizes the Severn Estuary. This would mean that single time measurements do not accurately reflect the overall trace metal environment to which the biomonitor organism had been exposed in the weeks/months prior to sampling. Marked differences in the concentrations of certain metals, e.g. Cu and Zn, in co-occurring biomarker species could frequently be related to differences between the ability of these species to regulate certain metals. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling ordination and associated tests emphasize that the relationships between the concentrations of the various metals differed markedly among species and between sites and seasons in individual species and elucidated which metals contributed most to those differences. If the proposed scheme for harnessing tidal power in the Severn Estuary proceeds, the data in this paper provide a baseline for assessing the impact of such major changes on the bioavailability of trace metals in this estuary. This information will also be invaluable for predicting the changes likely to occur in other estuaries that become subjected to major structural changes.
We estimated the excess risk of in-patient hospitalization in a large cohort of persons diagnosed with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, controlling for social deprivation. A total of 20 749 individuals diagnosed with HCV in Scotland by 31 December 2006 were linked to the Scottish hospital discharge database, and indirectly standardized hospitalization rates, adjusting for sex, age, year and deprivation were calculated. We observed significant excess morbidity considering episodes for: any diagnosis [standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) 3·4, 95% CI 3·3–3·5]; liver-related diagnoses (SMR 41·3, 95% CI 39·6–43·0); and only non-liver-related diagnoses (SMR 2·14, 95% CI 2·08–2·19). Cox regression analyses of the 2000–2006 data indicated increased relative risks of hospitalization for males [hazard ratio (HR) 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·2], older age (per 10 years) (HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·5–1·6), and those testing HIV-positive (HR 1·6, 95% CI 1·3–1·8). This study has revealed substantial excess all-cause and liver-related morbidity in the Scottish HCV-diagnosed population, even after allowing for deprivation.
Charcoal is the result of natural and anthropogenic burning events, when biomass is exposed to elevated temperatures under conditions of restricted oxygen. This process produces a range of materials, collectively known as pyrogenic carbon, the most inert fraction of which is known as black carbon (BC). BC degrades extremely slowly and is resistant to diagenetic alteration involving the addition of exogenous carbon, making it a useful target substance for radiocarbon dating particularly of more ancient samples, where contamination issues are critical. We present results of tests using a new method for the quantification and isolation of BC, known as hydropyrolysis (hypy). Results show controlled reductive removal of non-BC organic components in charcoal samples, including lignocellulosic and humic material. The process is reproducible and rapid, making hypy a promising new approach not only for isolation of purified BC for 14C measurement but also in quantification of different labile and resistant sample C fractions.
We estimated the extent of undiagnosed hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in injecting drug users (IDUs) in Scotland. We used record-linkage to determine HCV diagnosis status for 41 062 current/former IDUs attending drug treatment and support services between 1 April 1995 and 31 March 2006; the extent of undiagnosed HCV infection was estimated by comparing the number HCV-diagnosed to the number HCV-infected (estimated from an unlinked anonymous testing survey of 2141 current/former IDUs). In all, 9145 IDUs (22%) were diagnosed HCV antibody-positive since first attendance at drug services (diagnosis rate of 33·6/1000 person-years, 95% CI 32·7–34·4). By 31 March 2006, of the 19 632 current/former IDUs who had attended drug services and were determined to be living with HCV, an estimated 58% (95% CI 45–62) had not been HCV-diagnosed. It is essential that the deployment of resources for identifying at-risk IDUs with a view to offering antiviral therapy is guided by evidence.
On 24 August 2008, an outbreak alert regarding cases of acute gastroenteritis in Podgorica triggered investigations to guide control measures. From 23 August to 7 September, 1699 cases were reported in Podgorica (population 136 000) and we estimated the total size of the outbreak to be 10 000–15 000 corresponding to an attack rate of ~10%. We conducted an age- and neighbourhood-matched case-control study, microbiologically analysed faecal and municipal water samples and assessed the water distribution system. All cases (83/83) and 90% (89/90) of controls drank unboiled chlorinated municipal water [matched odds ratio (mOR) 11·2, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1·6–∞]. Consumption of bottled water was inversely associated with illness (mOR 0·3, 95% CI 0·1–0·8). Analyses of faecal samples identified six norovirus genotypes (21/38 samples) and occasionally other viruses. Multiple defects in the water distribution system were noted. These results suggest that the outbreak was caused by faecally contaminated municipal water. It is unusual to have such a large outbreak in a European city especially when the municipal water supply is chlorinated. Therefore, it is important to establish effective multiple-barrier water-treatment systems whenever possible, but even with an established chlorinated supply, sustained vigilance is central to public health.