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The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.
This paper presents latest thinking from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ Model Risk Working Party and follows on from their Phase I work, Model Risk: Daring to Open the Black Box. This is a more practical paper and presents the contributors’ experiences of model risk gained from a wide range of financial and non-financial organisations with suggestions for good practice and proven methods to reduce model risk. After a recap of the Phase I work, examples of model risk communication are given covering communication: to the Board; to the regulator; and to external stakeholders. We present a practical framework for model risk management and quantification with examples of the key actors, processes and cultural challenge. Lessons learned are then presented from other industries that make extensive use of models and include the weather forecasting, software and aerospace industries. Finally, a series of case studies in practical model risk management and mitigation are presented from the contributors’ own experiences covering primarily financial services.
Undernutrition and non-communicable disease (NCD) are important public health issues in India, yet their relationship with dietary patterns is poorly understood. The current study identified distinct dietary patterns and their association with micronutrient undernutrition (Ca, Fe, Zn) and NCD risk factors (underweight, obesity, waist:hip ratio, hypertension, total:HDL cholesterol, diabetes).
Data were from the cross-sectional Indian Migration Study, including semi-quantitative FFQ. Distinct dietary patterns were identified using finite mixture modelling; associations with NCD risk factors were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression models.
Migrant factory workers, their rural-dwelling siblings and urban non-migrants. Participants (7067 adults) resided mainly in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
Five distinct, regionally distributed, dietary patterns were identified, with rice-based patterns in the south and wheat-based patterns in the north-west. A rice-based pattern characterised by low energy consumption and dietary diversity (‘Rice & low diversity’) was consumed predominantly by adults with little formal education in rural settings, while a rice-based pattern with high fruit consumption (‘Rice & fruit’) was consumed by more educated adults in urban settings. Dietary patterns met WHO macronutrient recommendations, but some had low micronutrient contents. Dietary pattern membership was associated with several NCD risk factors.
Five distinct dietary patterns were identified, supporting sub-national assessments of the implications of dietary patterns for various health, food system or environment outcomes.
Although mental disorders are significant predictors of educational attainment throughout the entire educational career, most research on mental disorders among students has focused on the primary and secondary school years.
The World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys were used to examine the associations of mental disorders with college entry and attrition by comparing college students (n = 1572) and non-students in the same age range (18–22 years; n = 4178), including non-students who recently left college without graduating (n = 702) based on surveys in 21 countries (four low/lower-middle income, five upper-middle-income, one lower-middle or upper-middle at the times of two different surveys, and 11 high income). Lifetime and 12-month prevalence and age-of-onset of DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavioral and substance disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI).
One-fifth (20.3%) of college students had 12-month DSM-IV/CIDI disorders; 83.1% of these cases had pre-matriculation onsets. Disorders with pre-matriculation onsets were more important than those with post-matriculation onsets in predicting subsequent college attrition, with substance disorders and, among women, major depression the most important such disorders. Only 16.4% of students with 12-month disorders received any 12-month healthcare treatment for their mental disorders.
Mental disorders are common among college students, have onsets that mostly occur prior to college entry, in the case of pre-matriculation disorders are associated with college attrition, and are typically untreated. Detection and effective treatment of these disorders early in the college career might reduce attrition and improve educational and psychosocial functioning.
Benzodiazepines and Z-drugs are commonly prescribed for insomnia and anxiety
syndromes and there is increasing concern regarding their misuse. Using an
internet-based questionnaire we found that of 1500 respondents 7.7%
(n = 116) had misused one or more of these medications.
Almost 15% of those misusing at least one of these drugs did so once weekly
or more often. The main reasons reported for their use were to help sleep
(66.4%), to cope with stress (37.1%) and/or to get high (31.0%). A total of
31% obtained the medications from multiple sources; healthcare professionals
(55.2%) and friends/family (39.7%) most commonly. Our study can be used to
inform prevention measures for their misuse.
Children in care often have poor outcomes. There is a lack of evaluative
research into intervention options.
To examine the efficacy of Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care for
Adolescents (MTFC-A) compared with usual care for young people at risk in
foster care in England.
A two-arm single (assessor) blinded randomised controlled trial (RCT)
embedded within an observational quasi-experimental case–control study
involving 219 young people aged 11–16 years (trial registration: ISRCTN
68038570). The primary outcome was the Child Global Assessment Scale
(CGAS). Secondary outcomes were ratings of educational attendance,
achievement and rate of offending.
The MTFC-A group showed a non-significant improvement in CGAS outcome in
both the randomised cohort (n = 34, adjusted mean
difference 1.3, 95% CI −7.1 to 9.7, P = 0.75) and in the
trimmed observational cohort (n = 185, adjusted mean
difference 0.95, 95% CI −2.38 to 4.29, P = 0.57). No
significant effects were seen in secondary outcomes. There was a possible
differential effect of the intervention according to antisocial
There was no evidence that the use of MTFC-A resulted in better outcomes
than usual care. The intervention may be more beneficial for young people
with antisocial behaviour but less beneficial than usual treatment for
The Millimetre Astronomy Legacy Team 90 GHz (MALT90) survey aims to characterise the physical and chemical evolution of high-mass star-forming clumps. Exploiting the unique broad frequency range and on-the-fly mapping capabilities of the Australia Telescope National Facility Mopra 22 m single-dish telescope1, MALT90 has obtained 3′ × 3′ maps towards ~2 000 dense molecular clumps identified in the ATLASGAL 870 μm Galactic plane survey. The clumps were selected to host the early stages of high-mass star formation and to span the complete range in their evolutionary states (from prestellar, to protostellar, and on to
regions and photodissociation regions). Because MALT90 mapped 16 lines simultaneously with excellent spatial (38 arcsec) and spectral (0.11 km s−1) resolution, the data reveal a wealth of information about the clumps’ morphologies, chemistry, and kinematics. In this paper we outline the survey strategy, observing mode, data reduction procedure, and highlight some early science results. All MALT90 raw and processed data products are available to the community. With its unprecedented large sample of clumps, MALT90 is the largest survey of its type ever conducted and an excellent resource for identifying interesting candidates for high-resolution studies with ALMA.
The aim of the present study was to assess the recent trends in the epidemiology of non-typhoid Salmonella in Israel using a sentinel laboratory-based surveillance network. Between 1999 and 2009, 8758 Salmonella stool isolates were reported by five sentinel laboratories. There was a significant decrease in the incidence rate of Salmonella isolates from 70·5/100 000 in 1999 to 21·6/100 000 in 2005 followed by a slight increase to 30·3/100 000 in 2009. Of all Salmonella, 64·3% were isolated from children in the 0–4 years age group. Up to 2008, S. Enteritidis was the most prevalent serotype and in 2009 S. Infantis emerged as the most common Salmonella serotype. The decrease in the incidence of S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium and increase in S. Infantis among humans were associated with a similar trend among breeding flocks, which followed significant preventive interventions conducted against S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium infections in poultry. Tight surveillance and education of food handlers and consumers should be enhanced to reduce the foodborne transmission of Salmonella in Israel.
Electrochromic (EC) devices are able to vary their throughput of visible light and solar energy by the application of a voltage. They are of much interest for “smart” windows in buildings and are able to create energy efficiency, occupant well being, and security. This paper gives a survey over oxide-based EC device technology and also presents some recent advances regarding EC thin films of mixed metal oxides, nanoparticle-containing electrolytes to join these films, and metal-based transparent electrical conductors needed to apply the voltage.
Recent data provide strong support for a substantial common polygenic contribution (i.e. many alleles each of small effect) to genetic susceptibility for schizophrenia and overlapping susceptibility for bipolar disorder.
To test hypotheses about the relationship between schizophrenia and psychotic types of bipolar disorder.
Using a polygenic score analysis to test whether schizophrenia polygenic risk alleles, en masse, significantly discriminate between individuals with bipolar disorder with and without psychotic features. The primary sample included 1829 participants with bipolar disorder and the replication sample comprised 506 people with bipolar disorder.
The subset of participants with Research Diagnostic Criteria schizoaffective bipolar disorder (n = 277) were significantly discriminated from the remaining participants with bipolar disorder (n = 1552) in both the primary (P = 0.00059) and the replication data-sets (P = 0.0070). In contrast, those with psychotic bipolar disorder as a whole were not significantly different from those with non-psychotic bipolar disorder in either data-set.
Genetic susceptibility influences at least two major domains of psychopathological variation in the schizophrenia–bipolar disorder clinical spectrum: one that relates to expression of a ‘bipolar disorder-like’ phenotype and one that is associated with expression of ‘schizophrenia-like’ psychotic symptoms.
Growth of ZnSe on GaAs from H2S9 and Zn[N(TMS)2]2 precursors has been demonstrated. When Et2Zn is used as the zinc precursor a higher quality deposit is obtained. Results of experiments employing Et2Zn as the main zinc source with Zn[N(TMS)2]2 introduced at a dopant level indicate nitrogen has been incorporated. Final thin films were characterized by PL, XRD, SIMS, and Raman.
The deposition of polycrystalline silicon in a rapid thermal processor was studied in the temperature range of 600-1100°C using a mixture of silane and argon at reduced pressures. The amorphous-to-polycrystalline transition temperature was determined by X-ray diffraction and UV-visible spectrophotometry to be between 650 and 700°C. The activation energy of the deposition was found to be approximately 1.5 eV in the temperature range of 600 to 800°C, in reasonable agreement with LPCVD and APCVD results. At 800°C and above, the deposition rate depended only weakly on temperature, as is characteristic of mass-transport-fimited processes. The partial pressure of silane was found to affect the deposition rate in both surface-limited and gas-transport-limited depositions. A UV-visible spectrophotometer was used as a reflectometer to measure the surface roughness of the samples, which in general increased with increasing deposition temperature and film thickness. At the lower deposition temperatures, the surfaces were very smooth, as is characteristic of amorphous-silicon films. Furthermore, the ability to change temperature rapidly appears to allow smoother films to be obtained by initially depositing at lower temperatures, and then ramping to a higher temperature to increase the deposition rate.
The development of next-generation high-speed bipolar devices depends critically on reproducible shallow dopant profiles, with base and emitter widths considerably less than 1000 Angstroms. Sequential diffusion of boron and arsenic from implanted polysilicon is a promising means of producing such shallow emitter-base profiles. The restricted thermal budget required to reproducibly form such shallow junctions severely limits the use of conventional furnaces. We report the formation of extremely shallow emitter-base profiles using rapid thermal processing (RTP) in a double-diffused polysilicon emitter process. Polysilicon was implanted with various doses of BF2 and subjected to a conventional furnace anneal at 900ºC. This process was followed by As implantation and furnace anneal at 900ºC or RTP at 10500C or 1100ºC. A range of emitter-base profiles was generated with emitter and base widths ranging from 350-800A. Emitter-base profiles were measured using low-energy Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS), after removal of the polysilicon to improve depth resolution. Deconvolution of the instrumental broadening function allowed extraction of base and emitter widths as well as the boron concentration in the base. Variation of the profiles is discussed as a function of anneal times and implant dose. Modified SUPREM III parameters are obtained for diffusivities under these RTP conditions. The implications for high speed bipolar device fabrication will be presented.
In an effort to extend the performance limits of semiconductors, devices based on heterojunctions rather than homojunctions are being investigated with great interest. Heterojunctions allow certain device design constraints to be relaxed because the charge distribution, electric field, and potential can be tailored extensively, permitting better device structures to be utilized. Silicon technology today enjoys a firm grip on a large portion of the electronics industry due in part to its superior material properties.
Further progress in IC dimension reduction, increase in integration degree and speed require development and use of new current-conducting materials. This is due to the fact that existing current-conducting systems based on aluminium are low temperature, characterized by low electromi gration stability and require use of complex barrier layersi[l]. Polycide currentconducting materials have quite high resistance, interact with aluminium and are sensitive to the formation conditions. From this point of view, borides and titanium borides in particular are very promising for making current-conducting systems since they are very much characterized by good barrier properties, high conductance, properties and electromigration stability .
Large grain polycrystalline boron carbides have a high-temperature thermal conductivity which changes from being characteristic of a crystal to being glass-like as the carbon content is reduced from its maximal value. We relate this phenomenon, to compositional changes within the three-atom intericosahedral chains. With a reduction of the carbon concentration from its maximal concentration (20 %), a carbon atom within some of the three-atom (CBC) intericosahedral chains is replaced by a boron atom, thereby producing CBB chains. We estimate that the CBB chains are significantly softer than the CBC chains. Thus, with this reduction of carbon content the intericosahedral chains are inhomogeneously softened. This suppresses the coherent transport of heat through the chains. The remaining thermal transport occurs incoherently through vibrationally inequivalent structural units, i.e. “phonon hopping.”