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The spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas led to large outbreaks across the region and most of the Southern hemisphere. Of greatest concern were complications following acute infection during pregnancy. At the beginning of the outbreak, the risk to unborn babies and their clinical presentation was unclear. This report describes the methods and results of the UK surveillance response to assess the risk of ZIKV to children born to returning travellers. Established surveillance systems operating within the UK – the paediatric and obstetric surveillance units for rare diseases, and national laboratory monitoring – enabled rapid assessment of this emerging public health threat. A combined total of 11 women experiencing adverse pregnancy outcomes after possible ZIKV exposure were reported by the three surveillance systems; five miscarriages, two intrauterine deaths and four children with clinical presentations potentially associated with ZIKV infection. Sixteen women were diagnosed with ZIKV during pregnancy in the UK. Amongst the offspring of these women, there was unequivocal laboratory evidence of infection in only one child. In the UK, the number and risk of congenital ZIKV infection for travellers returning from ZIKV-affected countries is very small.
Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) are sites identified as being globally important for the conservation of bird populations on the basis of an internationally agreed set of criteria. We present the first review of the development and spread of the IBA concept since it was launched by BirdLife International (then ICBP) in 1979 and examine some of the characteristics of the resulting inventory. Over 13,000 global and regional IBAs have so far been identified and documented in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems in almost all of the world’s countries and territories, making this the largest global network of sites of significance for biodiversity. IBAs have been identified using standardised, data-driven criteria that have been developed and applied at global and regional levels. These criteria capture multiple dimensions of a site’s significance for avian biodiversity and relate to populations of globally threatened species (68.6% of the 10,746 IBAs that meet global criteria), restricted-range species (25.4%), biome-restricted species (27.5%) and congregatory species (50.3%); many global IBAs (52.7%) trigger two or more of these criteria. IBAs range in size from < 1 km2 to over 300,000 km2 and have an approximately log-normal size distribution (median = 125.0 km2, mean = 1,202.6 km2). They cover approximately 6.7% of the terrestrial, 1.6% of the marine and 3.1% of the total surface area of the Earth. The launch in 2016 of the KBA Global Standard, which aims to identify, document and conserve sites that contribute to the global persistence of wider biodiversity, and whose criteria for site identification build on those developed for IBAs, is a logical evolution of the IBA concept. The role of IBAs in conservation planning, policy and practice is reviewed elsewhere. Future technical priorities for the IBA initiative include completion of the global inventory, particularly in the marine environment, keeping the dataset up to date, and improving the systematic monitoring of these sites.
BirdLife International´s Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBA) Programme has identified, documented and mapped over 13,000 sites of international importance for birds. IBAs have been influential with governments, multilateral agreements, businesses and others in: (1) informing governments’ efforts to expand protected area networks (in particular to meet their commitments through the Convention on Biological Diversity); (2) supporting the identification of Ecologically or Biologically Significant Areas (EBSAs) in the marine realm, (3) identifying Wetlands of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention; (4) identifying sites of importance for species under the Convention on Migratory Species and its sister agreements; (5) identifying Special Protected Areas under the EU Birds Directive; (6) applying the environmental safeguards of international finance institutions such as the International Finance Corporation; (7) supporting the private sector to manage environmental risk in its operations; and (8) helping donor organisations like the Critical Ecosystems Partnership Fund (CEPF) to prioritise investment in site-based conservation. The identification of IBAs (and IBAs in Danger: the most threatened of these) has also triggered conservation and management actions at site level, most notably by civil society organisations and local conservation groups. IBA data have therefore been widely used by stakeholders at different levels to help conserve a network of sites essential to maintaining the populations and habitats of birds as well as other biodiversity. The experience of IBA identification and conservation is shaping the design and implementation of the recently launched Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) Partnership and programme, as IBAs form a core part of the KBA network.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Smoking during pregnancy (SDP) is associated with negative health outcomes, both proximal (e.g., preterm labor, cardiovascular changes, low birth weight) and distal (e.g., increased child externalizing behaviors and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, increased risk of child smoking). As pregnancy provides a unique, strong incentive to quit smoking, investigating SDP allows analysis of individual predictive factors of recalcitrant smoking behaviors. Utilizing a female twin-pair cohort provides a model system for characterizing genotype×environment interactions using statistical approaches. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Using women from the Missouri Adolescent Female Twin Study, parental report of twin ADHD inattentive and hyperactive symptoms at twin median age 15, and twin report of DSM-IV lifetime diagnosis of major depressive disorder, trauma exposure (physical assault and childhood sexual abuse), collected at median age 22, were merged with Missouri birth record data for enrolled twins, leading to 1553 individuals of European ancestry and 163 individuals of African-American ancestry included in final analyses. A SDP propensity score was calculated from sociodemographic variables (maternal age, marital status, educational attainment, first born child) and used as a 6-level ordinal covariate in subsequent logistic regressions. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: For European ancestry individuals, parental report of hyperactive ADHD symptoms and exposure to childhood sexual abuse were predictive of SDP, while a lifetime diagnosis of major depressive disorder, parental report of inattentive ADHD symptoms, and exposure to assaultive trauma were all not significantly predictive of future SDP. For African-American individuals, none of these variables were significant in predicting future SDP. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Understanding this relationship of risk-mechanisms is important for clinical understanding of early predictors of SDP and tailoring interventions to at risk individuals. Ultimately, the focus of this research is to mitigate risk to pregnant smokers and their children. Additionally, the cohort-ecological approach informs how well research and administrative (vital record) data agree. This allows for evaluation of whether administrative data improve prediction in research cohorts, and conversely if research data improve prediction over standard sociodemographic variables available in administrative data.
The Taipan galaxy survey (hereafter simply ‘Taipan’) is a multi-object spectroscopic survey starting in 2017 that will cover 2π steradians over the southern sky (δ ≲ 10°, |b| ≳ 10°), and obtain optical spectra for about two million galaxies out to z < 0.4. Taipan will use the newly refurbished 1.2-m UK Schmidt Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory with the new TAIPAN instrument, which includes an innovative ‘Starbugs’ positioning system capable of rapidly and simultaneously deploying up to 150 spectroscopic fibres (and up to 300 with a proposed upgrade) over the 6° diameter focal plane, and a purpose-built spectrograph operating in the range from 370 to 870 nm with resolving power R ≳ 2000. The main scientific goals of Taipan are (i) to measure the distance scale of the Universe (primarily governed by the local expansion rate, H0) to 1% precision, and the growth rate of structure to 5%; (ii) to make the most extensive map yet constructed of the total mass distribution and motions in the local Universe, using peculiar velocities based on improved Fundamental Plane distances, which will enable sensitive tests of gravitational physics; and (iii) to deliver a legacy sample of low-redshift galaxies as a unique laboratory for studying galaxy evolution as a function of dark matter halo and stellar mass and environment. The final survey, which will be completed within 5 yrs, will consist of a complete magnitude-limited sample (i ⩽ 17) of about 1.2 × 106 galaxies supplemented by an extension to higher redshifts and fainter magnitudes (i ⩽ 18.1) of a luminous red galaxy sample of about 0.8 × 106 galaxies. Observations and data processing will be carried out remotely and in a fully automated way, using a purpose-built automated ‘virtual observer’ software and an automated data reduction pipeline. The Taipan survey is deliberately designed to maximise its legacy value by complementing and enhancing current and planned surveys of the southern sky at wavelengths from the optical to the radio; it will become the primary redshift and optical spectroscopic reference catalogue for the local extragalactic Universe in the southern sky for the coming decade.
For any odd prime
-part of the class number of the imaginary quadratic field
. Nontrivial pointwise upper bounds are known only for
; nontrivial upper bounds for averages of
have previously been known only for
. In this paper we prove nontrivial upper bounds for the average of
for all primes
$\ell \geqslant 7$
, as well as nontrivial upper bounds for certain higher moments for all primes
$\ell \geqslant 3$
For a finite field of odd cardinality
, we show that the sequence of iterates of
, starting at
, always recurs after
, the same is true for any starting value. We suggest that the traditional “birthday paradox” model is inappropriate for iterates of
is 2 mod 3.
Approximately half of the variation in wellbeing measures overlaps with variation in personality traits. Studies of non-human primate pedigrees and human twins suggest that this is due to common genetic influences. We tested whether personality polygenic scores for the NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) domains and for item response theory (IRT) derived extraversion and neuroticism scores predict variance in wellbeing measures. Polygenic scores were based on published genome-wide association (GWA) results in over 17,000 individuals for the NEO-FFI and in over 63,000 for the IRT extraversion and neuroticism traits. The NEO-FFI polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction in 7 cohorts, positive affect in 12 cohorts, and general wellbeing in 1 cohort (maximal N = 46,508). Meta-analysis of these results showed no significant association between NEO-FFI personality polygenic scores and the wellbeing measures. IRT extraversion and neuroticism polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction and positive affect in almost 37,000 individuals from UK Biobank. Significant positive associations (effect sizes <0.05%) were observed between the extraversion polygenic score and wellbeing measures, and a negative association was observed between the polygenic neuroticism score and life satisfaction. Furthermore, using GWA data, genetic correlations of -0.49 and -0.55 were estimated between neuroticism with life satisfaction and positive affect, respectively. The moderate genetic correlation between neuroticism and wellbeing is in line with twin research showing that genetic influences on wellbeing are also shared with other independent personality domains.
be an integral quadratic form with determinant coprime to some modulus
. We show that
for some non-zero integer vector
, for any fixed
. Without the coprimality condition on the determinant one could not necessarily achieve an exponent below
. The proof uses a bound for short character sums involving binary quadratic forms, which extends a result of Chang.
To investigate familial influences on the full range of variability in attention and activity across adolescence, we collected maternal ratings of 339 twin pairs at ages 12, 14, and 16, and estimated the transmitted and new familial influences on attention and activity as measured by the Strengths and Weaknesses of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Normal Behavior Scale. Familial influences were substantial for both traits across adolescence: genetic influences accounted for 54%–73% (attention) and 31%–73% (activity) of the total variance, and shared environmental influences accounted for 0%–22% of the attention variance and 13%–57% of the activity variance. The longitudinal stability of individual differences in attention and activity was largely accounted for by familial influences transmitted from previous ages. Innovations over adolescence were also partially attributable to familial influences. Studying the full range of variability in attention and activity may facilitate our understanding of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder's etiology and intervention.
Childhood maltreatment (CM) has consistently been linked with adverse outcomes including substance use disorders and adult sexual revictimization. Adult sexual victimization itself has been linked with psychopathology but has predominately been studied in women. The current investigation examines the impact of CM and co-occurring psychopathology on adult sexual victimization in men and women, replicating findings in three distinct samples.
We investigated the association between continuous CM factor scores and adult sexual victimization in the Childhood Trauma Study (CTS) sample (N = 2564). We also examined the unique relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adult sexual victimization while adjusting for co-occurring substance dependence and psychopathology. We replicated these analyses in two additional samples: the Comorbidity and Trauma Study (CATS; N = 1981) and the Australian Twin-Family Study of Alcohol Use Disorders (OZ-ALC; N = 1537).
Analyses revealed a significant association with CM factor scores and adult sexual victimization for both men and women across all three samples. The CSA factor score was strongly associated with adult sexual victimization after adjusting for substance dependence and psychopathology; higher odds ratios were observed in men (than women) consistently across the three samples.
A continuous measure of CSA is independently associated with adult sexual trauma risk across samples in models that included commonly associated substance dependence and psychopathology as covariates. The strength of the association between this CSA measure and adult sexual victimization is higher in magnitude for men than women, pointing to the need for further investigation of sexual victimization in male community samples.
The main theme of the trimester was the interplay of different methods used in modern number theory. We wish to emphasize the new results and conjectures in arithmetic geometry, having direct bearing on the classical number theoretic problems. Two sessions, on the recently proved Serre's conjecture from 15 January to 14 February (organizers: L. Dieulefait and J.-P. Wintenberger) and on counting rational points on algebraic varieties from 15 March to 14 April (organizer: D.R. Heath-Brown), as well as a couple of shorter workshops, several seminars, and mini-courses were organized. The trimester culminated in a research conference from 15 to 19 April.
The aim of the session “Serre's conjecture” was to report on recent works linked to that conjecture, in particular about Galois representations and automorphic representations. During the weeks starting on 14 January and 21 January, Henri Carayol lectured on his work on the algebraic properties of Griffiths-Schmid varieties. The Griffiths-Schmid varieties are analytic varieties classifying Hodge structures. Studying their algebraic properties might be a step towards constructing Galois representations associated to automorphic representations appearing in the cohomology of these varieties. Our secondtheme related to the recent work of Michael Harris, Kai-Wen Lan, Richard Taylor and Jack Thorne, who have constructed Galois representations associated to not necessarily self-dual automorphic representations. The proof heavily relies on p-adic properties of automorphic representations.
The aim of the session “counting rational points on algebraic varieties” was to report on recent works on the existence, frequency and distribution of rational points on algebraic varieties. Thus the main themes were local to global principles, Manin's conjecture, developments of the Hardy-Littlewood method and the determinant method.
January 8, Jeanine Van Order, Iwasawa main conjectures forGL(2) via Howard's criterion (abstract). In this talk, I will present the Iwasawa main conjectures for Hilbert modular eigenforms of parallel weight two in dihedral or anticyclotomic extensions of CM fields. The first part will include an overview of known results, as well as some discussion of open problems and applications (e.g. to bounding Mordell-Weil ranks), and should be accessible to the non-specialist. The second part will describe the p-adic L-functions in more detail, as well as the non-vanishing criterion of Howard (and its implications for the main conjectures).
January 15, Oliver Lorscheid, A blueprinted view on F1-geometry (abstract). A blueprint is an algebraic structure that “interpolates” between multiplicative monoids and semirings. The associated scheme theory applies to several problems in F1-geometry: Tits's idea of Chevalley groups and buildings over F1, Euler characteristics as the number of F1-rational points, total positivity, K-theory, Arakelov compactifications of arithmetic curves; and it has multiple connections to other branches of algebraic geometry: Lambdaschemes (after Borger), log schemes (after Kato), relative schemes (after Toen and Vaquie), congruence schemes (after Berkovich and Deitmar), idempotent analysis, analytic spaces and tropical geometry. After a brief overview and an introduction to the basic definitions of this theory, we focus on the combinatorial aspects of blue schemes. In particular, we explain how to realize Jacques Tits's idea ofWeyl groups as Chevalley groups over F1 and Coxeter complexes as buildings over F1. The central concepts are the rank space of a blue scheme and the Tits category, which make the idea of “F1-rational points” rigorous.
January 16, Jean-Pierre Wintenberger, Introduction to Serre's modularity conjecture (abstract). This lecture is intended for non-specialists. We state Serre's modularity conjecture and give some consequences and hints on its proof.
January 17, Henri Carayol, Realization of some automorphic forms and rationality questions (Part I) (abstract).
Genetic influences contribute significantly to co-morbidity between conduct disorder and substance use disorders. Estimating the extent of overlap can assist in the development of phenotypes for genomic analyses.
Multivariate quantitative genetic analyses were conducted using data from 9577 individuals, including 3982 complete twin pairs and 1613 individuals whose co-twin was not interviewed (aged 24–37 years) from two Australian twin samples. Analyses examined the genetic correlation between alcohol dependence, nicotine dependence and cannabis abuse/dependence and the extent to which the correlations were attributable to genetic influences shared with conduct disorder.
Additive genetic (a2 = 0.48–0.65) and non-shared environmental factors explained variance in substance use disorders. Familial effects on conduct disorder were due to additive genetic (a2 = 0.39) and shared environmental (c2 = 0.15) factors. All substance use disorders were influenced by shared genetic factors (rg = 0.38–0.56), with all genetic overlap between substances attributable to genetic influences shared with conduct disorder. Genes influencing individual substance use disorders were also significant, explaining 40–73% of the genetic variance per substance.
Among substance users in this sample, the well-documented clinical co-morbidity between conduct disorder and substance use disorders is primarily attributable to shared genetic liability. Interventions targeted at generally reducing deviant behaviors may address the risk posed by this shared genetic liability. However, there is also evidence for genetic and environmental influences specific to each substance. The identification of these substance-specific risk factors (as well as potential protective factors) is critical to the future development of targeted treatment protocols.