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In this work we consider a new class of oscillatory instabilities that pertain to thermocapillary destabilization of a liquid film heated by a solid substrate. We assume the substrate thickness and substrate–film thermal conductivity ratio are large so that the effect of substrate thermal diffusion is retained at leading order in the long-wave approximation. As a result, the system dynamics is described by a nonlinear partial differential equation for the film thickness that is non-locally coupled to the full substrate heat equation. Perturbing about a steady quiescent state, we find that its stability is described by a non-self-adjoint eigenvalue problem. We show that, under appropriate model parameters, the linearized eigenvalue problem admits complex eigenvalues that physically correspond to oscillatory (in time) instabilities of the thin-film height. As the principal results of our work, we provide a complete picture of the susceptibility to oscillatory instabilities for different model parameters. Using this description, we conclude that oscillatory instabilities are more relevant experimentally for films heated by insulating substrates. Furthermore, we show that oscillatory instability where the fastest-growing (most unstable) wavenumber is complex, arises only for systems with sufficiently large substrate thicknesses. Finally, we discuss adaptation of our model to a practical setting and make predictions of conditions at which the reported instabilities can be observed.
Introduction: Patients with concussion often present to the emergency department (ED). Current guidelines recommend graded return to work and physical activity (i.e., sport, recreation and exercise activities); however, whether emergency physicians target this advice based on patient-reported activities is unknown. This study aimed to assess mismatches between physicians’ rest and return-to-activity advice and self-reported pre-injury work and physical activity of adult concussion patients. Methods: Adults (>17 years) presenting with a concussion from April 2013 to April 2015 to a study ED with Glasgow coma scale score ≥13 were recruited by on-site research assistants. Data on patient characteristics (i.e., age, sex, employment, and physical activity level) and activity leading to injury were collected from structured patient interviews. A structured questionnaire collected data from the treating physician about discharge advice provided. “Working” was defined as employed or enrolled in any level of school at the time of injury. “Physically active” was defined by reporting regular exercise (≥2 times a week) or concussed during a sports-related activity. Proportions or medians (interquartile range [IQR]) are reported, as appropriate. Results: Physician questionnaires were completed for 198/248 enrolled patients (median age: 37 years [IQR: 23, 49]; 46% male). Overall, 89% (177/198) were working; 110/177 (62%) received return-to-work advice, while 10/21 (48%) patients also received return-to-work advice, despite not working. Mentally strenuous work/school duties were reported by 143 patients, of which 85 (60%) were recommended cognitive rest. Overall, 148 patients were physically active and 115 (78%) of these were recommended physical rest while 124 (82%) were advised on safe return to physical activity. On the other hand, 35/50 (70%) patients who were not physically active received advice on safe return to physical activity. Sustaining a sports-related injury significantly increased the likelihood of safe return to physical activity advice among physically active patients (Fisher's exact p = 0.001). Conclusion: There is a mismatch between concussed patients’ pre-injury activities, and the rest and return-to-activity (i.e., work and physical activity) advice provided by emergency physicians. The possible effect of this mismatch on patient outcomes should be assessed in future research, as should strategies to improve emergency physician-patient communications around concussion management.
Introduction: Patients with concussion often present to the emergency department (ED). Although sports and recreation (SR) activities account for less than half of all adult concussions, guidelines developed for management of SR-related concussions (SRC) are widely used for all concussion patients. This study aimed to identify whether there are clinically relevant differences in patient and injury characteristics between SRC and those occurring outside of SR activities. Methods: Adults ( >17 years) presenting from April 2013 to April 2015 with a concussion to one of three EDs with Glasgow coma scale score ≥13 were recruited by on-site research assistants. Data on patient characteristics (i.e., age, sex, employment, lifestyle, relevant medical history), ED presentation (i.e., EMS arrival, hours since injury, CTAS, Glasgow Coma Scale score) and injury characteristics (i.e., activity leading to injury, loss of consciousness [LOC], signs and symptoms [scored using the Rivermead Post-Concussion Questionnaire], and health-related quality of life [from the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey [SF-12]) were collected from structured interviews and the ED chart. Dichotomous and categorical variables were compared using Fisher's exact test; continuous variables were compared using t-tests or Mann-Whitney tests, as appropriate. Results: In total, 248 patients were enrolled (47% male, median [IQR] age: 35 [23, 49]). Patients with SRC were younger (median: 23.5 years vs 35 years; p < 0.001), more likely to be a student (31% vs 8%; p > 0.001), and more likely to exercise regularly (89% vs 66%; p = 0.001). Patients with SRC were less likely to present during the daytime (66% vs. 77%; p = 0.022), less likely to have a history of mental health issues (18% vs 33%; p = 0.011) and had significantly higher median SF-12 physical components scores (55.5 [IQR: 51.4 to 57.8] vs. 53.5 [IQR: 45.5 to 56.7]; p = 0.025). All other characteristics were similar between the two groups. Conclusion: Although differences in demographics and lifestyle have been identified between patients sustaining a SRC and those concussed during other activities, injury characteristics, such as presentation acuity, proxies for severity, and signs and symptoms, were similar in both groups. Further analysis to assess whether the demographic and lifestyle differences affect clinical outcomes, such as time to symptom resolution, between these two groups is required to assess if sport-based treatment guidelines are appropriate for all patients.
This paper presents new excavation data on the Chinchihuapi I (CH-I) locality within the Monte Verde site complex, located along Chinchihuapi Creek in the cool, temperate Valdivian rain forest of south-central Chile. The 2017 and 2018 archaeological excavations carried out in this open-air locality reveal further that CH-I is an intermittently occupied site dating from the Early Holocene (~10,000 cal yr BP) to the late Pleistocene (at least ~14,500 cal yr BP) and probably earlier. A new series of radiocarbon dates refines the chronology of human use of the site during this period. In this paper, we describe the archaeological and stratigraphic contexts of the recent excavations and analyze the recovered artifact assemblages. A fragmented Monte Verde II point type on an exotic quartz newly recovered from excavations at CH-I indicates that this biface design existed in at least two areas of the wider site complex ~14,500 cal yr BP. In addition, associated with the early Holocene component at CH-I are later Paijan-like points recovered with lithic tools and debris and other materials. We discuss the geographic distribution of diagnostic artifacts from the site and their probable relationship to other early sites in South America.
A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.
Mixing matrices quantify how people with similar or different characteristics make contact with each other, creating potential for disease transmission. Little empirical data on mixing patterns among persons who inject drugs (PWID) are available to inform models of blood-borne disease such as HIV and hepatitis C virus. Egocentric drug network data provided by PWID in Baltimore, Maryland between 2005 and 2007 were used to characterise drug equipment-sharing patterns according to age, race and gender. Black PWID and PWID who were single (i.e. no stable sexual partner) self-reported larger equipment-sharing networks than their white and non-single counterparts. We also found evidence of assortative mixing according to age, gender and race, though to a slightly lesser degree in the case of gender. Highly assortative mixing according to race and gender highlights the existence of demographically isolated clusters, for whom generalised treatment interventions may have limited benefits unless targeted directly. These findings provide novel insights into mixing patterns of PWID for which little empirical data are available. The age-specific assortativity we observed is also significant in light of its role as a key driver of transmission for other pathogens such as influenza and tuberculosis.
Human movement contributes to the probability that pathogens will be introduced to new geographic locations. Here we investigate the impact of human movement on the spatial spread of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Southern Thailand during a recent re-emergence. We hypothesised that human movement, population density, the presence of habitat conducive to vectors, rainfall and temperature affect the transmission of CHIKV and the spatiotemporal pattern of cases seen during the emergence. We fit metapopulation transmission models to CHIKV incidence data. The dates at which incidence in each of 151 districts in Southern Thailand exceeded specified thresholds were the target of model fits. We confronted multiple alternative models to determine which factors were most influential in the spatial spread. We considered multiple measures of spatial distance between districts and adjacency networks and also looked for evidence of long-distance translocation (LDT) events. The best fit model included driving-distance between districts, human movement, rubber plantation area and three LDT events. This work has important implications for predicting the spatial spread and targeting resources for control in future CHIKV emergences. Our modelling framework could also be adapted to other disease systems where population mobility may drive the spatial advance of outbreaks.
The adenovirus vaccine and benzathine penicillin G (BPG) have been used by the US military to prevent acute respiratory diseases (ARD) in trainees, though these interventions have had documented manufacturing problems. We fit Poisson regression and random forest models (RF) to 26 years of weekly ARD incidence data to explore the impact of the adenovirus vaccine and BPG prophylaxis on respiratory disease burden. Adenovirus vaccine availability was among the most important predictors of ARD in the RF, while BPG was the ninth most important. BPG was a significant protective factor against ARD (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67–0.70), but less so than either the old or new adenovirus vaccine (IRR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.38–0.39 and IRR = 0.11, 95% CI 0.11–0.11), respectively. These results suggest that BPG is moderately predictive of, and significantly protective against ARD, though to a lesser extent than either the old or new adenovirus vaccine.
Introduction: Patients with concussion frequently present to the emergency department (ED). Studies of athletes and children indicate that concussion symptoms are often more severe and prolonged in females compared with males. To-date, study of sex-based concussion differences in general adult populations have been limited. This study examined sex-based differences in concussion outcomes. Methods: Adult (>17 years) patients presenting to one of three urban EDs in Edmonton, Alberta with Glasgow coma scale score 13 within 72 hours of a concussive event were recruited by on-site research assistants. Follow-up calls at 30 and 90 days post ED discharge captured extent of PCS using the Rivermead Post-Concussion questionnaire (RPQ), effect on daily living activities measured by the Rivermead Head Injury Questionnaire (RHIQ), and overall health-related quality of life using the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12). Dichotomous and categorical variables were compared using Fishers exact test; continuous variables were compared using t-tests or Mann-Whitney tests, as appropriate. Results: Overall, 130/250 enrolled patients were female. The median age was 35 years; men trended towards being younger (median=32 years; IQR: 23, 45) than women (median=40 years; IQR: 22, 52). Compared to women, more men were single (56% vs 38% (p=0.007) and employed (82% vs 71% (p=0.055). Men and women experienced different injury mechanisms (p=0.007) with more women reporting injury due to a fall (44% vs 26%), while more men were injured at work (16% vs 7%) or due to an assault (11% vs. 3%). Men had a higher return to ED rate (13% vs. 5%; p=0.015). Women had higher RPQ scores at baseline (p<0.001) and 30-day follow-up (p=0.001); this difference was not significant by 90 days (p=0.099). While women reported on the RHIQ at 30 days that their injury affected their usual activities significantly more than men (Median=5, IQR: 0, 11 vs. median=0.5, IQR: 0.5, 7; p=0.004), both groups had similar scores on the SF-12 physical composite and mental composite scales at all three measurement points. Conclusion: In a general ED concussion population, demographic differences exist between men and women. Based on self-reported and objective outcomes, womens usual activities may be more affected by concussion and PCS than men. Further analysis of these differences is required in order to identify different treatment options and ensure adequate care and treatment of injury.
Evolution of cold dry snow and firn plays important roles in glaciology; however, the physical formulation of a densification law is still an active research topic. We forced eight firn-densification models and one seasonal-snow model in six different experiments by imposing step changes in temperature and accumulation-rate boundary conditions; all of the boundary conditions were chosen to simulate firn densification in cold, dry environments. While the intended application of the participating models varies, they are describing the same physical system and should in principle yield the same solutions. The firn models all produce plausible depth-density profiles, but the model outputs in both steady state and transient modes differ for quantities that are of interest in ice core and altimetry research. These differences demonstrate that firn-densification models are incorrectly or incompletely representing physical processes. We quantitatively characterize the differences among the results from the various models. For example, we find depth-integrated porosity is unlikely to be inferred with confidence from a firn model to better than 2 m in steady state at a specific site with known accumulation rate and temperature. Firn Model Intercomparison Experiment can provide a benchmark of results for future models, provide a basis to quantify model uncertainties and guide future directions of firn-densification modeling.
The methodological and epistemological challenges that research on ethnopolitical violence faces are examined. This research area is fundamentally important for political reasons and for understanding, as well as subsequent interventions to ameliorate, youths’ responses to ethnopolitical violence. Advances in methods are reviewed that can overcome the obstacles placed by the various challenges. These issues are discussed in the context of the articles that comprise this Special Section.
The stellar life cycle is dominated by phases such as the hydrogen-burning stage and the remnant white dwarf cooling phase. However, between these two stages, stars dramatically transform themselves by losing the bulk of their mass. Planetary nebulae (PNe) provide a powerful clue to the processes involved in this transformation, but they are very complex. Over the past 15 years, a new wave of imaging and spectroscopy programs have uncovered the remnants of PNe, white dwarfs, in a wide range of well-measured environments. With this we can map the masses and temperatures of the stellar remnants to the properties of their progenitors. This work has now led to the first uniform mapping of the initial-final mass relation from 1.5 to 7 M⊙. The resulting relation is a fundamental input to our understanding of stellar evolution for low and intermediate-mass stars that produce PNe and has a wide range of applications.
This study examined the transactional interplay among dimensions of destructive interparental conflict (i.e., hostility and dysphoria), children's emotional insecurity, and their psychological problems from middle childhood and adolescence. Participants were 232 families, with the first of five measurement occasions occurring when children were in first grade (M age = 7 years). Cross-lagged, autoregressive models were conducted with a multiple-method, multiple-informant measurement approach to identify developmental cascades of interparental and child cascades. Results indicated that emotional insecurity was a particularly powerful mediator of prospective associations between interparental conflict (i.e., dysphoria and hostility) and child adjustment during adolescence rather than childhood. In reflecting bidirectionality in relationships between interparental and child functioning, children's psychological problems predicted increases in interparental dysphoria during childhood and adolescence. Although emotional insecurity was not identified as a proximal predictor of interparental difficulties, an indirect cascade was identified whereby insecurity in early adolescence was associated with increases in teen psychological problems, which in turn predicted greater interparental dysphoria over time. Results are interpreted in the context of how they advance transactional formulation of emotional security theory and its resulting translational implications for clinical initiatives.
Introduction: Some non-urgent/low-acuity Emergency Department (ED) presentations are considered convenience visits and potentially avoidable with improved access to primary care services. This study surveyed patients who presented to the ED and explored their self-reported reasons and barriers for not being connected to a primary care provider (PCP). Methods: Patients aged 17 years and older were randomly selected from electronic registration records at three urban EDs in Edmonton, Alberta (AB), Canada. Following initial triage, stabilization, and verbal informed consent, patients completed a 47-item questionnaire. Data from the survey were cross-referenced to a minimal patient dataset consisting of ED and demographic information. The questionnaire collected information on patient characteristics, their connection to a PCP, and patients' reasons for not having a PCP. Results: Of the 2144 eligible patients, 1408 (65.7%) surveys were returned and 1402 (65.4%) were completed. The majority of patients (74.4%) presenting to the ED reported having a family physician; however, the ‘closeness’ of the connection to their family physician varied greatly among ED patients with the most recent family physician visit ranging from 1 hour before ED presentation to 45 years prior. Approximately 25% of low acuity ED patients reported no connection with a family physician. Reasons for a lack of PCP connection included: prior physician retired, left, or died (19.8%), they had never tried to find one (19.2%), they had recently moved to Alberta (18.0%), and they were unable to find one (16.5%). Conclusion: A surprisingly high proportion of ED patients (25.6%) have no identified PCP. Patients had a variety of reasons for not having a family physician. These need to be understood and addressed in order for primary care access to successfully contribute to diverting non-urgent, low acuity presentations from the ED.
Introduction: Some low acuity Emergency Department (ED) presentations are considered non-urgent or convenience visits and potentially avoidable with improved access to primary care. This study explored self-reported reasons why non-urgent patients presented to the ED. Methods: Patients, 17 years and older, were randomly selected from electronic registration records at three urban EDs in Edmonton, Alberta (AB), Canada during weekdays (0700 to 1900). A 47-item questionnaire was completed by each consenting patient, which included items on whether the patient believed the ED was their best care option and the rationale supporting their response. A thematic content analysis was performed on the responses, using previous experience and review of the literature to identify themes. Results: Of the 2144 eligible patients, 1408 (65.7%) questionnaires were returned, and 1402 (65.4%) were analyzed. For patients who felt the ED was their best option (n = 1234, 89.3%), rationales included: safety concerns (n = 309), effectiveness of ED care (n = 284), patient-centeredness of ED (n = 277), and access to health care professionals in the ED (n = 204). For patients who felt the ED was not their best care option (n = 148, 10.7%), rationales included a perception that: access to health professionals outside the ED was preferable (n = 39), patient-centeredness (particularly timeliness) was lacking in the ED (n = 26), and their health concern was not important enough to require ED care (n = 18). Conclusion: Even during times when alternative care options are available, the majority of non-urgent patients perceived the ED to be the most appropriate location for care. These results highlight that simple triage scores do not accurately reflect the appropriateness of care and that understanding the diverse and multi-faceted reasons for ED presentation are necessary to implement strategies to support non-urgent, low acuity care needs.
The extent to which indices of maternal physiological arousal (skin conductance augmentation) and regulation (vagal withdrawal) while parenting predict infant attachment disorganization and behavior problems directly or indirectly via maternal sensitivity was examined in a sample of 259 mothers and their infants. Two covariates, maternal self-reported emotional risk and Adult Attachment Interview attachment coherence were assessed prenatally. Mothers' physiological arousal and regulation were measured during parenting tasks when infants were 6 months old. Maternal sensitivity was observed during distress-eliciting tasks when infants were 6 and 14 months old, and an average sensitivity score was calculated. Attachment disorganization was observed during the Strange Situation when infants were 14 months old, and mothers reported on infants' behavior problems when infants were 27 months old. Over and above covariates, mothers' arousal and regulation while parenting interacted to predict infant attachment disorganization and behavior problems such that maternal arousal was associated with higher attachment disorganization and behavior problems when maternal regulation was low but not when maternal regulation was high. This effect was direct and not explained by maternal sensitivity. The results suggest that maternal physiological dysregulation while parenting places infants at risk for psychopathology.
Velocardiofacial syndrome, also known as 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS), is associated with an increased risk of major psychiatric disorders, including schizophrenia. The emergence of psychotic symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia in the general population is often preceded by a premorbid period of poor or worsening social and/or academic functioning. Our current study evaluated premorbid adjustment (via the Cannon–Spoor Premorbid Adjustment Scale [PAS]) and psychotic symptoms (via the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and the Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children—Present and Lifetime Version) in youth with 22q11DS (N = 96), unaffected siblings (N = 40), and community controls (N = 50). The PAS scores indicated greater maladjustment during all developmental periods in individuals with 22q11DS compared to the controls. Many participants with 22q11DS had chronically poor (n = 33) or deteriorating (n = 6) PAS scores. In 22q11DS, chronically poor PAS trajectories and poor childhood and early adolescence academic domain and total PAS scores significantly increased the risk of prodromal symptoms or overt psychosis. Taking into account the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) genotype, the best predictor of (prodromal) psychosis was the early adolescence academic domain score, which yielded higher sensitivity and specificity in the subgroup of youth with 22q11DS and the high-activity (valine) allele. PAS scores may help identify individuals at higher risk for psychosis.
The co-occurring development of internalizing and externalizing problems were examined in an inception cohort of 392 children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder at age 3 who were assessed on four occasions. Results indicated that internalizing and externalizing problems were stable over time and highly comorbid. Joint trajectory analysis suggested that 13% of the sample followed a dual high-risk trajectory. High risk was not found to be associated with intellectual ability or autism spectrum disorder symptom severity but was linked to lower income and gender: more girls than boys were found in the high/stable internalizing problems trajectory. The results suggest that 1 in 4 preschoolers followed a trajectory of internalizing or externalizing problems (or a combination of the two) that could be characterized as clinically elevated.