We investigate the role of optimism bias in bull price expectations using incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments with Alabama and Tennessee cattle producers. We develop bull price prediction tasks and reward accurate predictions. We find that the EPD information provision prevents optimism bias from contaminating price expectations in the whole sample. However, we also document that, unlike buyers, sellers are prone to unrealistic optimistic expectations, and our results reveal that optimism bias can be moderated by the type of expected progeny difference information utilized, breed characteristics, and regional differences in cattle operations. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of behavioral biases.

We determine optimal stocker strategies based on calving season, herd size, and the number of days of retention before marketing weaned calves. We estimate a hedonic pricing model for feeder cattle and incorporate this into a simulation model that considers the variability of cattle prices and feed costs. The profit and utility-maximizing decision for fall calving herd would be to retain weaned calves for 150-day postweaning. The producer marketing spring-born calves would prefer to sell these calves at weaning. The results are being utilized by extension to aid cattle producers in reducing their feed costs and increasing their profits.

We estimate a hedonic pricing model to determine producers’ value for bull expected progeny differences (EPDs), genomic-enhanced EPDs, and phenotypic traits. Birth weight EPD, ribeye area EPD, sale weight, age, frame score, and other factors had a statistically significant impact on bull prices. GE-EPDs were not associated with a change in the bull sales prices expect for weaned calf value and birth weight EPDs. Including weaned calf value and GE-EPDs in a bull hedonic pricing model provides a unique contribution. The results from this work will inform educational programming for bull purchasers on using new economic selection indices and GE-EPDs.

This study determines which factors are associated with the use of rotational grazing and the frequency with which Tennessee producers rotate cattle during the summer months. Survey data were used to estimate an ordered response model with sample selection. Most respondents used rotational grazing, and the most frequent rotational schedule was rotating cattle one to two times per month. Factors including labor, capital, knowledge, and water availability influenced the use of rotational grazing and the frequency of rotating cattle. The insights from this study can inform the development of incentives to promote more intensive use of rotational grazing.

A hedonic model was employed to examine factors impacting feeder cattle prices at a monthly video auction in Tennessee. Home-raised cattle were estimated to have a $2 per cwt. premium and cattle that have been tested for PI-BVDV (persistent infections with bovine viral diarrhea virus) sold for a premium of $1.19 per cwt. We also show how price varies across sale months for steers and heifers, suggesting opportune times to market gender-specific lots. Corn price was interacted with an average weight per head of the lot to show that lighter cattle were negatively affected, while heavier cattle prices were positively affected by increasing corn prices.

We determined how pasture and grazing management practices affected the number of days hay was fed to cattle by season. Data were collected from a survey of Tennessee cattle producers. Days of cattle on hay varied across seasons because of variations in forage production and weather. The number of days hay was fed to cattle varied with pasture-animal management practices such as rotating pastures, forage mixtures, and weed management strategies. Having mixtures of cool- and warm-season grasses reduced the number of days on hay in the winter, spring, and summer months indicating benefits from diversified forages.

Prevented planting provision in crop insurance protects producers from failure to plant attributable to natural causes. We determined the impact of this provision at various crop insurance coverage levels on prevented planting claims and ex post moral hazard. The moral hazard incentive in the prevented planting provision is stronger for corn than soybeans. Reducing the prevented planting coverage factor for corn could likely reduce moral hazard, but the degree of the reduction will likely depend on the revenue protection coverage level. Conversely, we found moral hazard is unlikely to occur for soybean production regardless of the revenue protection coverage level.

We estimate the values of bull phenotypic traits, performance measurements, and expected progeny differences (EPDs) over time using bull sale data from an auction in Tennessee from 2006 to 2016. Moreover, we determine how a state partial-cost reimbursement program for bulls with certain EPDs affects bull sale price. Purebred seed stock producers in this region should focus on selling large, fast-growing, mature bulls that produce lighter calves for reduced calving stress. The state cost-share payment did not significantly increase bull prices in most years, meaning this payment was retained by cow-calf producers in most years.

The effect of animal characteristics and placement decisions on retained ownership profitability of Tennessee cattle from 2005 to 2015 was determined using a mixed model regression. Ex post simulation analysis examined retained ownership profitability by placement season under different animal characteristic and corn price scenarios. Regression results indicate that placement weight, placement season, days on feed, animal health, and animal sex affect retained ownership profitability. Simulation results indicate that winter placement of cattle in feedlots had the highest expected retained ownership profits. Results provide risk-averse producers information regarding the profitability of retained ownership.

Livestock risk protection (LRP) insurance is a price risk management tool available to cattle producers; however, producers have been hesitant to adopt LRP. The objective of the study was to determine the monthly feeder cattle LRP contract coverage level and length maximizing the probability of the LRP net price being greater than the CME Feeder Cattle Index (CME FCI) price. The CME FCI prices were higher than the LRP net price for the majority of the contract lengths and coverage levels. Several coverage lengths and levels provided similar price protection, and there was no consistent preferred coverage length and level.

Little research exists on the optimal temporal frequency between soil tests, given empirical data on potassium (K) carryover and its interaction with cotton yield. We evaluate how decreasing the temporal frequency between obtaining K soil test information affects the net present value (NPV) of cotton production. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine NPV for cotton production using five soil test schedules ranging from soil testing annually to every fifth year. NPV of returns to K was maximized at $7,580/ac. when producers updated soil testing information every 2 years, which was $2/ac. per year greater than annual soil testing.

We determined the profitability and risk for spring- and fall-calving beef cows in Tennessee. Simulation models were developed using 19 years of data and considered the seasonality of cattle prices and feed prices for least-cost feed rations to find a distribution of net returns for spring- and fall-calving seasons for two weaning months. Fall calving was more profitable than the spring calving for all feed rations and weaning months. Fall calving was also risk preferred over spring calving for all levels of risk aversion. Higher calf prices at weaning were the primary factor influencing the risk efficiency of fall calving.

Little is known about the impact of a supplemental prepartum feed ration for cows on the profitability of their calves. Therefore, we investigated the impact of animal characteristics and a supplemental prepartum feed program for cows on net returns to finished steers and the probability of a steer grading Choice or higher. Data were collected for 160 Tennessee steers that were finished in a feedlot. The supplemental prepartum feeding program decreased net returns of finished steers. Several animal characteristics were found to influence net returns of finished steers and the probability of a steer grading Choice or higher.

Little is known about the impact of corn and energy prices on the profitability of irrigating corn in Tennessee. We evaluated the probability of a positive net present value (NPV) for center-pivot irrigation in Tennessee corn production. Three corn price series were employed to evaluate the effects of the shift in corn prices on the feasibility of irrigation. The recent rise in corn prices increased the probability of NPV being positive for irrigation investment. Future corn prices will need to remain high for investment in center-pivot irrigation to remain profitable under Tennessee growing conditions.

This study examines water system characteristics, managers' attitudes and perceptions toward water conservation, and future planning strategies that influence the adoption of water conservation programs for urban and rural communities. We surveyed water system managers in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Florida; and we parameterized predictive adoption models for price-based (PC) and nonprice-based (NPC) conservation programs. Notably, results suggest that information about the price elasticity of water demand for a community does encourage PC and NPC adoption; and we found no evidence that PC and NPC adoption is jointly considered by water systems.

Deterministic and stochastic yield response plateau functions were estimated to determine the expected profit-maximizing nitrogen rates, yields, and net returns for corn grown after corn, cotton, and soybeans. The stochastic response functions were more appropriate than their deterministic counterparts, and the linear response stochastic plateau described the data the best. The profit-maximizing nitrogen rates were similar for corn after corn, cotton, and soybeans, but relative to corn after corn, the expected corn yield plateaus increased by 12% and 16% after cotton and soybeans, respectively. Expected net returns increased for corn after cotton and soybeans relative to corn after corn.