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Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
The seasonality of individual influenza subtypes/lineages and the association of influenza epidemics with meteorological factors in the tropics/subtropics have not been well understood. The impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on the prevalence of seasonal influenza virus remains to be explored. Using wavelet analysis, the periodicities of A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1, A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria and Yamagata were identified, respectively, in Panzhihua during 2006–2015. As a subtropical city in southwestern China, Panzhihua is the first industrial city in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The relationship between influenza epidemics and local climatic variables was examined based on regression models. The temporal distribution of influenza subtypes/lineages during the pre-pandemic (2006–2009), pandemic (2009) and post-pandemic (2010–2015) years was described and compared. A total of 6892 respiratory specimens were collected and 737 influenza viruses were isolated. A/H3N2 showed an annual cycle with a peak in summer–autumn, while A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria and Yamagata exhibited an annual cycle with a peak in winter–spring. Regression analyses demonstrated that relative humidity was positively associated with A/H3N2 activity while negatively associated with Victoria activity. Higher prevalence of A/H1N1pdm09 and Yamagata was driven by lower absolute humidity. The role of weather conditions in regulating influenza epidemics could be complicated since the diverse viral transmission modes and mechanism. Differences in seasonality and different associations with meteorological factors by influenza subtypes/lineages should be considered in epidemiological studies in the tropics/subtropics. The development of subtype- and lineage-specific prevention and control measures is of significant importance.
AgNPs@g-C3N4 composite was synthesized from Ag-containing sol and g-C3N4 powder by the ultrasonic-assisted self-assembly method. The composite has hierarchical pore size distributions, which will be beneficial to the ion transport with different size. Ag nanoparticles with the size of 5 nm successfully adhere on the surface of g-C3N4. The AgNPs@g-C3N4 composite has excellent specific capacitance and specific power performance for the supercapacitors as an electrode material. The specific capacitance of composite is 4 times greater than that of g-C3N4. It can be ascribed to the introduction of Ag nanoparticles that the internal resistance of the composite is significantly decreased.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The objective of this project is to determine whether HRV, collected peri-operatively, is predictive of cognitive decline among older adults who undergo elective surgery/anesthesia. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This project is a part of the ongoing INTUIT/PRIME study, which is collecting pre- and post-operative cognitive testing, fMRI imaging, CSF samples, and EEG recordings from 200 older adults (age ≥ 60) undergoing elective non-cardiac/non-neurologic surgery scheduled to last > 2 hours at Duke University Medical Center and Duke Regional Hospital. This project utilizes data from the first 60 INTUIT participants who contributed continuous heart rate data before and during surgery. Participants undergo cognitive testing prior to surgery (baseline) and at 6 weeks after surgery. Our primary dependent variable is the change in the composite score from baseline to 6-weeks. Delirium is assessed in the hospital with the twice daily 3D-CAM tool, so we will report the proportion of individuals with 6-week cognitive decline who exhibited delirium in the days following surgery. Participants’ echocardiogram (ECG) recordings are extracted pre- and intraoperatively from B650/B850 patient monitors with VSCapture software. HRV is defined as the variability between successive R-spikes or inter-beat-intervals on ECG. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We anticipate that lower intraoperative HRV is associated with worse cognitive decline at 6 weeks after surgery. As secondary objectives, we will determine whether pre-operative HRV or change in HRV (from pre-operative to intra-operative measures) are predictive of cognitive decline after surgery. We expect that in-hospital delirium will be detected in a higher proportion of those with 6-week cognitive decline, compared to those with stable or improved cognition at 6 weeks. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: HRV may address the present need for pre- and intra-operative cognitive risk stratification in the elderly. Physiological indices like HRV have the potential to dramatically change our understanding of CI in older adults undergoing surgery, as they offer an accessible, cost-effective, and non-invasive means whereby clinicians, particularly those unfamiliar with the nuances of geriatric and CI/dementia-related care, can monitor patients and refer those at high-risk of CI after surgery for early intervention.
We examined whether undergraduates’ achievement goal orientations could be represented as profiles and whether profiles were linked to self-reported motivation, epistemic beliefs and academic achievement. Data collected during an undergraduate course were analyzed using a clustering technique. Using the 2 × 2 goal model (Elliot & McGregor, 2001), we identified five achievement goal profiles. Our findings suggest the interaction of goal orientations supports varying interpretations of students’ motivation and learning beliefs. Although no statistically significant differences in achievement were found across clusters, a High-Approach-Low-Avoidance cluster displayed an adaptive profile that was most positive towards learning and self but least anxious about exams. In contrast, a Performance-Avoidance-Dominant cluster demonstrated a maladaptive pattern of lowest self-efficacy and task value, and higher anxiety. Further, High-Approach-Low-Avoidance and Low-Performance-Avoidance clusters recognized that knowledge is not simple and authority could be questioned, compared to the other groups.
Rabies is one of the major public health problems in China, and the mortality rate of rabies remains the highest among all notifiable infectious diseases. A meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) vaccination rate and risk factors for human rabies in mainland China. The PubMed, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese Science and Technology Periodical and Wanfang databases were searched for articles on rabies vaccination status (published between 2007 and 2017). In total, 10 174 human rabies cases from 136 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Approximately 97.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 95.1–98.7%) of rabies cases occurred in rural areas and 72.6% (95% CI 70.0–75.1%) occurred in farmers. Overall, the vaccination rate in the reported human rabies cases was 15.4% (95% CI 13.7–17.4%). However, among vaccinated individuals, 85.5% (95% CI 79.8%–83.4%) did not complete the vaccination regimen. In a subgroup analysis, the PEP vaccination rate in the eastern region (18.8%, 95% CI 15.9–22.1%) was higher than that in the western region (13.3%, 95% CI 11.1–15.8%) and this rate decreased after 2007. Approximately 68.9% (95% CI 63.6–73.8%) of rabies cases experienced category-III exposures, but their PEP vaccination rate was 27.0% (95% CI 14.4–44.9%) and only 6.1% (95% CI 4.4–8.4%) received rabies immunoglobulin. Together, these results suggested that the PEP vaccination rate among human rabies cases was low in mainland China. Therefore, standardised treatment and vaccination programs of dog bites need to be further strengthened, particularly in rural areas.
Transition metal perovskite chalcogenides, a class of materials with rich tunability in functionalities, are gaining increased attention as candidate materials for renewable energy applications. Perovskite oxides are considered excellent n-type thermoelectric materials. Compared to oxide counterparts, we expect the chalcogenides to possess more favorable thermoelectric properties such as lower lattice thermal conductivity and smaller band gap, making them promising material candidates for high temperature thermoelectrics. Thus, it is necessary to study the thermal properties of these materials in detail, especially thermal stability, to evaluate their potential. In this work, we report the synthesis and thermal stability study of five compounds, α-SrZrS3, β-SrZrS3, BaZrS3, Ba2ZrS4, and Ba3Zr2S7. These materials cover several structural types including distorted perovskite, needle-like, and Ruddlesden–Popper phases. Differential scanning calorimeter and thermogravimetric analysis measurements were performed up to 1200 °C in air. Structural and chemical characterizations such as X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and energy dispersive analytical X-ray spectroscopy were performed on all the samples before and after the heat treatment to understand the oxidation process. Our studies show that perovskite chalcogenides possess excellent thermal stability in air at least up to 550 °C.
Sufficient amino acid (AA) transport is essential to ensure the normal physiological function and growth of growing animals. The processes of AA sensing and transport in humans and murine animals, but rarely in goats, have been arousing great interest recently. This study was conducted to investigate the messenger RNA expression patterns of lysophosphatidic acid receptor 5 (LPAR5), guanine nucleotide-binding protein α-transducing 3 (GNAT3) and important partial AA transporters in digestive tracts, metabolic organs and muscles of growing goats. The results showed that these genes were widely expressed in goats, and had different expression patterns. LPAR5, GNAT3, solute carrier (SLC38A2), SLC7A7, SLC7A1 and SLC3A1 were rarely expressed in the rumen, but were highly expressed in the abomasum and intestine which are the main sites of AA absorption. GNAT3, SLC38A1, SLC38A2, SLC6A19, SLC7A7 and SLC7A1 showed comparatively high expression in the pancreas and the vital digestive glands, and the relatively high expression of these nine genes were noted in the tibialis posterior, the active muscle in energy metabolism. The correlation analysis showed that there were certain positive correlation among most genes. The current results indicate that the AA sensing and transport occur extensively in the abomasum and small intestine, metabolic organs and muscle tissues of ruminants, and that related genes have tissue specificity.
The role that vitamin D plays in pulmonary function remains uncertain. Epidemiological studies reported mixed findings for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)–pulmonary function association. We conducted the largest cross-sectional meta-analysis of the 25(OH)D–pulmonary function association to date, based on nine European ancestry (EA) cohorts (n 22 838) and five African ancestry (AA) cohorts (n 4290) in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium. Data were analysed using linear models by cohort and ancestry. Effect modification by smoking status (current/former/never) was tested. Results were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Mean serum 25(OH)D was 68 (sd 29) nmol/l for EA and 49 (sd 21) nmol/l for AA. For each 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, forced expiratory volume in the 1st second (FEV1) was higher by 1·1 ml in EA (95 % CI 0·9, 1·3; P<0·0001) and 1·8 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·5; P<0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·06), and forced vital capacity (FVC) was higher by 1·3 ml in EA (95 % CI 1·0, 1·6; P<0·0001) and 1·5 ml (95 % CI 0·8, 2·3; P=0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·56). Among EA, the 25(OH)D–FVC association was stronger in smokers: per 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, FVC was higher by 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·3) for current smokers and 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·2, 2·1) for former smokers, compared with 0·8 ml (95 % CI 0·4, 1·2) for never smokers. In summary, the 25(OH)D associations with FEV1 and FVC were positive in both ancestries. In EA, a stronger association was observed for smokers compared with never smokers, which supports the importance of vitamin D in vulnerable populations.
The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) of animals is capable of sensing various kinds of nutrients via G-protein coupled receptor-mediated signaling transduction pathways, and the process is known as ‘gut nutrient chemosensing’. GPR40, GPR41, GPR43 and GPR119 are chemoreceptors for free fatty acids (FFAs) and lipid derivatives, but they are not well studied in small ruminants. The objective of this study is to determine the expression of GPR40, GPR41, GPR43 and GPR119 along the GIT of kid goats under supplemental feeding (S) v. grazing (G) during early development. In total, 44 kid goats (initial weight 1.35±0.12 kg) were slaughtered for sampling (rumen, abomasum, duodenum, jejunum, ileum, cecum, colon and rectum) between days 0 and 70. The expression of GPR41 and GPR43 were measured at both mRNA and protein levels, whereas GPR40 and GPR119 were assayed at protein level only. The effects of age and feeding system on their expression were variable depending upon GIT segments, chemoreceptors and expression level (mRNA or protein), and sometimes feeding system × age interactions (P<0.05) were observed. Supplemental feeding enhanced expression of GPR40, GPR41 and GPR43 in most segments of the GIT of goats, whereas G enhanced expression of GPR119. GPR41 and GPR43 were mainly expressed in rumen, abomasum and cecum, with different responses to age and feeding system. GPR41 and GPR43 expression in abomasum at mRNA level was greatly (P<0.01) affected by both age and feeding system; whereas their expression in rumen and abomasum at protein level were different, feeding system greatly (P<0.05) affected GPR41 expression, but had no effect (P>0.05) on GPR43 expression; and there were no feeding system×age interactions (P>0.05) on GPR41 and GPR43 protein expression. The expression of GPR41 and GPR43 in rumen and abomasum linearly (P<0.01) increased with increasing age (from days 0 to 70). Meanwhile, age was the main factor affecting GPR40 expression throughout the GIT. These outcomes indicate that age and feeding system are the two factors affecting chemoreceptors for FFAs and lipid derivatives expression in the GIT of kids goats, and S enhanced the expression of chemoreceptors for FFAs, whereas G gave rise to greater expression of chemoreceptors for lipid derivatives. Our results suggest that enhanced expression of chemoreceptors for FFAs might be one of the benefits of early supplemental feeding offered to young ruminants during early development.
Extensive insecticide use has led to the resistance of mosquitoes to these insecticides, posing a major barrier to mosquito control. Previous Solexa high-throughput sequencing of Culex pipiens pallens in the laboratory has revealed that the abundance of a novel microRNA (miRNA), miR-13664, was higher in a deltamethrin-sensitive (DS) strain than a deltamethrin-resistant (DR) strain. Real-time quantitative PCR revealed that the miR-13664 transcript level was lower in the DR strain than in the DS strain. MiR-13664 oversupply in the DR strain increased the susceptibility of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin, whereas inhibition of miR-13664 made the DS strain more resistant to deltamethrin. Results of bioinformatic analysis, quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, luciferase assay and miR mimic/inhibitor microinjection revealed CpCYP314A1 to be a target of miR-13664. In addition, downregulation of CpCYP314A1 expression in the DR strain reduced the resistance of mosquitoes to deltamethrin. Taken together, our results indicate that miR-13664 could regulate deltamethrin resistance by interacting with CpCYP314A1, providing new insights into mosquito resistance mechanisms.
Electron and proton microprobes, along with electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis were used to study the microstructure of the contemporary Al–Cu–Li alloy AA2099-T8. In electron probe microanalysis, wavelength and energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry were used in parallel with soft X-ray emission spectroscopy (SXES) to characterize the microstructure of AA2099-T8. The electron microprobe was able to identify five unique compositions for constituent intermetallic (IM) particles containing combinations of Al, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn. A sixth IM type was found to be rich in Ti and B (suggesting TiB2), and a seventh IM type contained Si. EBSD patterns for the five constituent IM particles containing Al, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn indicated that they were isomorphous with four phases in the 2xxx series aluminium alloys including Al6(Fe, Mn), Al13(Fe, Mn)4 (two slightly different compositions), Al37Cu2Fe12 and Al7Cu2Fe. SXES revealed that Li was present in some constituent IM particles. Al SXES mapping revealed an Al-enriched (i.e., Cu, Li-depleted) zone in the grain boundary network. From the EBSD analysis, the kernel average misorientation map showed higher levels of localized misorientation in this region, suggesting greater deformation or stored energy. Proton-induced X-ray emission revealed banding of the TiB2 IM particles and Cu inter-band enrichment.
Finite-amplitude manifestations of stratified shear flow instabilities and their spatio-temporal coherent structures are believed to play an important role in turbulent geophysical flows. Such shear flows commonly have layers separated by sharp density interfaces, and are therefore susceptible to the so-called Holmboe instability, and its finite-amplitude manifestation, the Holmboe wave. In this paper, we describe and elucidate the origin of an apparently previously unreported long-lived coherent structure in a sustained stratified shear flow generated in the laboratory by exchange flow through an inclined square duct connecting two reservoirs filled with fluids of different densities. Using a novel measurement technique allowing for time-resolved, near-instantaneous measurements of the three-component velocity and density fields simultaneously over a three-dimensional volume, we describe the three-dimensional geometry and spatio-temporal dynamics of this structure. We identify it as a finite-amplitude, nonlinear, asymmetric confined Holmboe wave (CHW), and highlight the importance of its spanwise (lateral) confinement by the duct boundaries. We pay particular attention to the spanwise vorticity, which exhibits a travelling, near-periodic structure of sheared, distorted, prolate spheroids with a wide ‘body’ and a narrower ‘head’. Using temporal linear stability analysis on the two-dimensional streamwise-averaged experimental flow, we solve for three-dimensional perturbations having two-dimensional, cross-sectionally confined eigenfunctions and a streamwise normal mode. We show that the dispersion relation and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the fastest-growing confined Holmboe instability are in good agreement with those of the observed confined Holmboe wave. We also compare those results with a classical linear analysis of two-dimensional perturbations (i.e. with no spanwise dependence) on a one-dimensional base flow. We conclude that the lateral confinement is an important ingredient of the confined Holmboe instability, which gives rise to the CHW, with implications for many inherently confined geophysical flows such as in valleys, estuaries, straits or deep ocean trenches. Our results suggest that the CHW is an example of an experimentally observed, inherently nonlinear, robust, long-lived coherent structure which has developed from a linear instability. We conjecture that the CHW is a promising candidate for a class of exact coherent states underpinning the dynamics of more disordered, yet continually forced stratified shear flows.
Records of absenteeism from primary schools are valuable data for infectious diseases surveillance. However, the analysis of the absenteeism is complicated by the data features of clustering at zero, non-independence and overdispersion. This study aimed to generate an appropriate model to handle the absenteeism data collected in a European Commission granted project for infectious disease surveillance in rural China and to evaluate the validity and timeliness of the resulting model for early warnings of infectious disease outbreak. Four steps were taken: (1) building a ‘well-fitting’ model by the zero-inflated Poisson model with random effects (ZIP-RE) using the absenteeism data from the first implementation year; (2) applying the resulting model to predict the ‘expected’ number of absenteeism events in the second implementation year; (3) computing the differences between the observations and the expected values (O–E values) to generate an alternative series of data; (4) evaluating the early warning validity and timeliness of the observational data and model-based O–E values via the EARS-3C algorithms with regard to the detection of real cluster events. The results indicate that ZIP-RE and its corresponding O–E values could improve the detection of aberrations, reduce the false-positive signals and are applicable to the zero-inflated data.