Diurnal depth cycles of decimeter scale are observed in a supraglacial lake on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We evaluate two possible causes: (1) tidal tilt of the ice shelf in response to the underlying ocean tide, and (2) meltwater input variation. We find the latter to be the most likely explanation of our observations. However, we do not rule out tidal tilt as a source of centimeter scale variations, and point to the possibility that other, larger supraglacial lake systems, particularly those on ice shelves that experience higher amplitude tidal tilts, such as in the Weddell Sea, may have depth cycles driven by ocean tide. The broader significance of diurnal cycles in meltwater depth is that, under circumstances where the ice shelf is thin, tidal-tilt amplitudes are high, and meltwater runoff rates are large, there may be associated flexure stresses that can contribute to ice-shelf fracture and destabilization. For the McMurdo Ice Shelf (~20–50 m thickness, ~ 1 m tidal amplitude and ~10 cm water-depth variations), these stresses amount to several 10's of kPa.

Surface debris covers much of the western portion of the McMurdo Ice Shelf and has a strong influence on the local surface albedo and energy balance. Differential ablation between debris-covered and debris-free areas creates an unusual heterogeneous surface of topographically low, high-ablation, and topographically raised (‘pedestalled’), low-ablation areas. Analysis of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery from 1999 to 2018, alongside field observations from the 2016/2017 austral summer, shows that pedestalled relict lakes (‘pedestals’) form when an active surface meltwater lake that develops in the summer, freezes-over in winter, resulting in the lake-bottom debris being masked by a high-albedo, superimposed, ice surface. If this ice surface fails to melt during a subsequent melt season, it experiences reduced surface ablation relative to the surrounding debris-covered areas of the ice shelf. We propose that this differential ablation, and resultant hydrostatic and flexural readjustments of the ice shelf, causes the former supraglacial lake surface to become increasingly pedestalled above the lower topography of the surrounding ice shelf. Consequently, meltwater streams cannot flow onto these pedestalled features, and instead divert around them. We suggest that the development of pedestals has a significant influence on the surface-energy balance, hydrology and flexure of the ice shelf.

Seismograms acquired on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica, during an Austral summer melt season (November 2016–January 2017) reveal a diurnal cycle of seismicity, consisting of hundreds of thousands of small ice quakes limited to a 6–12 hour period during the evening, in an area where there is substantial subsurface melting. This cycle is explained by thermally induced bending and fracture of a frozen surface superimposed on a subsurface slush/water layer that is supported by solar radiation penetration and absorption. A simple, one-dimensional model of heat transfer driven by observed surface air temperature and shortwave absorption reproduces the presence and absence (as daily weather dictated) of the observed diurnal seismicity cycle. Seismic event statistics comparing event occurrence with amplitude suggest that the events are generated in a fractured medium featuring relatively low stresses, as is consistent with a frozen surface superimposed on subsurface slush. Waveforms of the icequakes are consistent with hydroacoustic phases at frequency $ {\bf \gt} \bf 75\,{\bf Hz}$ and flexural-gravity waves at frequency $ \bf {\bf \lt}25\,{\bf Hz}$ . Our results suggest that seismic observation may prove useful in monitoring subsurface melting in a manner that complements other ground-based methods as well as remote sensing.

The West Kunlun Shan lie close to, or are perhaps part of, two significant glaciological phenomena – the High Mountain Asia surge ‘supercluster’ and the Karakoram Anomaly. However, glaciological studies, and particularly surge studies, in the range are limited. Here, we extend the database of known surges in the region using Landsat imagery and cross-correlation feature tracking. We examine 88 glaciers larger than 1 km2 in the Hotan Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, and find evidence of nine surges occurring between 1972 and 2017. Glaciers display low active phase velocities (~0.2–1.5 km a−1) that show seasonal acceleration in the summer, active phase periods as short as 2 years, and build-up and deceleration phases of months--years. Although these observations display characteristics indicative of both the classic hydrological and thermal switch mechanisms, the surging observed displays a close resemblance to that in the adjacent Karakoram ranges. Furthermore, the majority of the surges occur clustered at the end of a decadal-scale warming period, corroborating previously proposed causal links between climate and surging in the Karakoram. We suggest that the two regions should be considered part of one larger system when considering surge dynamics in High Mountain Asia.

On 2 March 2016, several small en échelon tabular icebergs calved from the seaward front of the McMurdo Ice Shelf, and a previously inactive rift widened and propagated by ~3 km, ~25% of its previous length, setting the stage for the future calving of a ~14 km2 iceberg. Within 24 h of these events, all remaining land-fast sea ice that had been stabilizing the ice shelf broke-up. The events were witnessed by time-lapse cameras at nearby Scott Base, and put into context using nearby seismic and automatic weather station data, satellite imagery and subsequent ground observation. Although the exact trigger of calving and rifting cannot be identified definitively, seismic records reveal superimposed sets of both long-period (>10 s) sea swell propagating into McMurdo Sound from storm sources beyond Antarctica, and high-energy, locally-sourced, short-period (<10 s) sea swell, in the 4 days before the fast ice break-up and associated ice-shelf calving and rifting. This suggests that sea swell should be studied further as a proximal cause of ice-shelf calving and rifting; if proven, it suggests that ice-shelf stability is tele-connected with far-field storm conditions at lower latitudes, adding a global dimension to the physics of ice-shelf break-up.

We present an age-structured mathematical model of malaria and pneumonia to study the effect of two capacity-building interventions: Integrated Management of Infectious Diseases (IMID) and On-site Support Services (OSS). IMID leads to a reduction in malaria prevalence by more than 2·4% across the [0,5), [5,14) and [14,50) age groups. IMID + OSS reduces it by more than 16·0% across all age groups. IMID decreases pneumonia prevalence by more than 3·0% across all age groups while IMID + OSS decreases it by more than 1·0% across all age groups. The number of malaria and pneumonia deaths is reduced by 7·8% by IMID across all age groups and IMID + OSS decreases this number by 30·5% across all age groups, which translates to saving a life of a child per month. Prevalence of malaria-pneumonia for the [0,5) age group is 0·52% at baseline, and IMID and IMID + OSS reduce it by 6·6% and 23·6%, respectively. There is no change in incidence of malaria or pneumonia disease episodes. The results also indicate that triaging of children contributes more than 50% to the effect of the interventions in reduction of deaths and a range of 14–91% in reduction of disease cases.

Five cases of STEC O157 phage type (PT) 21/28 reported consumption of raw cows' drinking milk (RDM) produced at a dairy farm in the South West of England. STEC O157 PT21/28 was isolated from faecal specimens from milking cows on the implicated farm. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) showed that human and cattle isolates were the same strain. Further analysis of WGS data confirmed that sequences of isolates from an additional four cases (who did not report consumption of RDM when first questioned) fell within the same five single nucleotide polymorphism cluster as the initial five cases epidemiologically linked to the consumption of RDM. These four additional cases identified by WGS were investigated further and were, ultimately, associated with the implicated farm. The RDM outbreak strain encoded stx2a, which is associated with increased pathogenicity and severity of symptoms. Further epidemiological analysis showed that 70% of isolates within a wider cluster containing the outbreak strain were from cases residing in, or linked to, the same geographical region of England. During this RDM outbreak, use of WGS improved case ascertainment and provided insights into the evolution of a highly pathogenic clade of STEC O157 PT21/28 stx2a associated with the South West of England.

On 30 May 2012, Surrey and Sussex Health Protection Unit was called by five nurseries reporting children and staff with sudden onset vomiting approximately an hour after finishing their lunch that day. Over the following 24 h 50 further nurseries supplied by the same company reported cases of vomiting (182 children, 18 staff affected). Epidemiological investigations were undertaken in order to identify the cause of the outbreak and prevent further cases. Investigations demonstrated a nursery-level attack rate of 55 out of 87 nurseries (63·2%, 95% confidence interval 52·2–73·3). Microbiological tests confirmed the presence of Bacillus cereus in food and environmental samples from the catering company and one nursery. This was considered microbiologically and epidemiologically consistent with toxin from this bacterium causing the outbreak. Laboratory investigations showed that the conditions used by the caterer for soaking of pearl haricot beans (known as navy bean in the USA) used in one of the foods supplied to the nurseries prior to cooking, was likely to have provided sufficient growth and toxin production of B. cereus to cause illness. This large outbreak demonstrates the need for careful temperature control in food preparation.

Despite many advances in recent years for patients with critical paediatric and congenital cardiac disease, significant variation in outcomes remains across hospitals. Collaborative quality improvement has enhanced the quality and value of health care across specialties, partly by determining the reasons for variation and targeting strategies to reduce it. Developing an infrastructure for collaborative quality improvement in paediatric cardiac critical care holds promise for developing benchmarks of quality, to reduce preventable mortality and morbidity, optimise the long-term health of patients with critical congenital cardiovascular disease, and reduce unnecessary resource utilisation in the cardiac intensive care unit environment. The Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium (PC4) has been modelled after successful collaborative quality improvement initiatives, and is positioned to provide the data platform necessary to realise these objectives. We describe the development of PC4 including the philosophical, organisational, and infrastructural components that will facilitate collaborative quality improvement in paediatric cardiac critical care.

The Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory (DRAO) is carrying out a survey as part of an international collaboration to image the northe, at a common resolution, in emission from all major constituents of the interstellar medium; the neutral atomic gas, the molecular gas, the ionised gas, dust and relativistic plasma. For many of these constituents the angular resolution of the images (1 arcmin) will be more than a factor of 10 better than any previous studies. The aim is to produce a publicly-available database of high resolution, high-dynamic range images of the Galaxy for multi-phase studies of the physical states and processes in the interstellar medium. We will sketch the main scientific motivations as well as describe some preliminary results from the Canadian Galactic Plane Survey/Releve Canadien du Plan Galactique (CGPS/RCPG).

We propose a general strategy for determining the minimal finite amplitude disturbance that triggers transition to turbulence in shear flows. This involves constructing a variational problem that searches over all disturbances of fixed initial amplitude which respect the boundary conditions, incompressibility and the Navier–Stokes equations, to maximize a chosen functional over an asymptotically long time period. The functional must be selected such that it identifies turbulent velocity fields by taking significantly enhanced values compared to those for laminar fields. We illustrate this approach using the ratio of the final to initial perturbation kinetic energies (energy growth) as the functional and the energy norm to measure amplitudes in the context of pipe flow. Our results indicate that the variational problem yields a smooth converged solution provided that the initial amplitude is below the threshold for transition. This optimal is the nonlinear analogue of the well-studied (linear) transient growth optimal. At the critical threshold, the optimization seeks out a disturbance that is on the ‘edge’ of turbulence during the period. Above this threshold, when disturbances trigger turbulence by the end of the period, convergence is then practically impossible. The first disturbance found to trigger turbulence as the amplitude is increased identifies the ‘minimal seed’ for the given geometry and forcing (Reynolds number). We conjecture that it may be possible to select a functional such that the converged optimal below threshold smoothly converges to the minimal seed at threshold. Our choice of the energy growth functional is shown to come close to this for the pipe flow geometry investigated here.

While it is clear that self-reported racial/ethnic discrimination is related to illness, there are challenges in measuring self-reported discrimination or unfair treatment. In the present study, we evaluate the psychometric properties of a self-reported instrument across racial/ethnic groups in a population-based sample, and we test and interpret findings from applying two different widely-used approaches to asking about discrimination and unfair treatment. Even though we found that the subset of items we tested tap into a single underlying concept, we also found that different groups are more likely to report on different aspects of discrimination. Whether race is mentioned in the survey question affects both frequency and mean scores of reports of racial/ethnic discrimination. Our findings suggest caution to researchers when comparing studies that have used different approaches to measure racial/ethnic discrimination and allow us to suggest practical empirical guidelines for measuring and analyzing racial/ethnic discrimination. No less important, we have developed a self-reported measure of recent racial/ethnic discrimination that functions well in a range of different racial/ethnic groups and makes it possible to compare how racial/ethnic discrimination is associated with health disparities among multiple racial/ethnic groups.

Scores on the Boston Naming Test (BNT) are frequently lower for African American when compared with Caucasian adults. Although demographically based norms can mitigate the impact of this discrepancy on the likelihood of erroneous diagnostic impressions, a growing consensus suggests that group norms do not sufficiently address or advance our understanding of the underlying psychometric and sociocultural factors that lead to between-group score discrepancies. Using item response theory and methods to detect differential item functioning (DIF), the current investigation moves beyond comparisons of the summed total score to examine whether the conditional probability of responding correctly to individual BNT items differs between African American and Caucasian adults. Participants included 670 adults age 52 and older who took part in Mayo’s Older Americans and Older African Americans Normative Studies. Under a two-parameter logistic item response theory framework and after correction for the false discovery rate, 12 items where shown to demonstrate DIF. Of these 12 items, 6 (“dominoes,” “escalator,” “muzzle,” “latch,” “tripod,” and “palette”) were also identified in additional analyses using hierarchical logistic regression models and represent the strongest evidence for race/ethnicity-based DIF. These findings afford a finer characterization of the psychometric properties of the BNT and expand our understanding of between-group performance. (JINS, 2009, 15, 758–768.)

A central role for neuropsychological evaluations is the measurement of change in cognitive functioning over time. However, change scores obtained from repeated neuropsychological assessments may be affected by normal variability because of measurement error and practice effects caused by repeated measurements. The current study uses reliable change estimates to establish normative rates of change on the Dementia Rating Scale from baseline to first follow-up testing among 1080 cognitively normal adults aged 65 and older. Results showed that a 6-point decline by European Americans or a 9-point decline by African American adults within a 9–15 month test-retest interval represents reliable change. Within a 16–24-month test-retest interval, a 7-point decline among European Americans or an 8-point decline among African American adults represents reliable change. In addition, preliminary cross-validation was performed in a clinical comparison sample of another 22 older adults. The findings are discussed in the context of potential clinical and research applications. (JINS, 2007, 13, 716–720.)