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Assessment of risks of illnesses has been an important part of medicine for decades. We now have hundreds of ‘risk calculators’ for illnesses, including brain disorders, and these calculators are continually improving as more diverse measures are collected on larger samples.
We first replicated an existing psychosis risk calculator and then used our own sample to develop a similar calculator for use in recruiting ‘psychosis risk’ enriched community samples. We assessed 632 participants age 8–21 (52% female; 48% Black) from a community sample with longitudinal data on neurocognitive, clinical, medical, and environmental variables. We used this information to predict psychosis spectrum (PS) status in the future. We selected variables based on lasso, random forest, and statistical inference relief; and predicted future PS using ridge regression, random forest, and support vector machines.
Cross-validated prediction diagnostics were obtained by building and testing models in randomly selected sub-samples of the data, resulting in a distribution of the diagnostics; we report the mean. The strongest predictors of later PS status were the Children's Global Assessment Scale; delusions of predicting the future or having one's thoughts/actions controlled; and the percent married in one's neighborhood. Random forest followed by ridge regression was most accurate, with a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adjustment of the model including only six variables reached an AUC of 0.70.
Results support the potential application of risk calculators for screening and identification of at-risk community youth in prospective investigations of developmental trajectories of the PS.
Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most common birth defect for infants born in the United States, with approximately 36,000 affected infants born annually. While mortality rates for children with CHD have significantly declined, there is a growing population of individuals with CHD living into adulthood prompting the need to optimise long-term development and quality of life. For infants with CHD, pre- and post-surgery, there is an increased risk of developmental challenges and feeding difficulties. Feeding challenges carry profound implications for the quality of life for individuals with CHD and their families as they impact short- and long-term neurodevelopment related to growth and nutrition, sensory regulation, and social-emotional bonding with parents and other caregivers. Oral feeding challenges in children with CHD are often the result of medical complications, delayed transition to oral feeding, reduced stamina, oral feeding refusal, developmental delay, and consequences of the overwhelming intensive care unit (ICU) environment. This article aims to characterise the disruptions in feeding development for infants with CHD and describe neurodevelopmental factors that may contribute to short- and long-term oral feeding difficulties.
The separation dynamics of a sphere released from the surface of a ramp into a hypersonic flow is investigated, focusing on the influence of the ramp boundary layer on the sphere behaviour. First, numerical simulations are conducted of a sphere interacting with an isolated high-speed boundary layer to determine the influence on the sphere force coefficients as the sphere diameter and wall-normal location are varied. It is found that the lift coefficient is strongly affected by the near-wall interactions, becoming increasingly negative as the ratio of the sphere radius to boundary-layer thickness,
, is decreased. These results are combined with force coefficients derived from simulations of the sphere interacting with the ramp-generated oblique shock to enable numerical predictions of the sphere trajectories for a
ramp at Mach 6 (using a similar decoupled approach to Part 1 of this work). It is found that the three trajectory types of the inviscid situation – shock surfing, ejection followed by re-entrainment within the shock layer and direct entrainment – also characterize the sphere behaviour here. Their relative prevalence, however, is influenced by the sphere size: for smaller values of
, direct entrainment dominates because of the wall suction, while shock surfing and then ejection/re-entrainment become increasingly likely at larger values of
. Increasing the ramp angle and/or the free-stream Mach number reduces the relative influence of the boundary-layer interactions. Finally, experiments are conducted using free-flying spheres released from a ramp surface in a hypersonic shock tunnel, confirming the major trends predicted numerically.
The Late Triassic fauna of the Lossiemouth Sandstone Formation (LSF) from the Elgin area, Scotland, has been pivotal in expanding our understanding of Triassic terrestrial tetrapods. Frustratingly, due to their odd preservation, interpretations of the Elgin Triassic specimens have relied on destructive moulding techniques, which only provide incomplete, and potentially distorted, information. Here, we show that micro-computed tomography (μCT) could revitalise the study of this important assemblage. We describe a long-neglected specimen that was originally identified as a pseudosuchian archosaur, Ornithosuchus woodwardi. μCT scans revealed dozens of bones belonging to at least two taxa: a small-bodied pseudosuchian and a specimen of the procolophonid Leptopleuron lacertinum. The pseudosuchian skeleton possesses a combination of characters that are unique to the clade Erpetosuchidae. As a basis for investigating the phylogenetic relationships of this new specimen, we reviewed the anatomy, taxonomy and systematics of other erpetosuchid specimens from the LSF (all previously referred to Erpetosuchus). Unfortunately, due to the differing representation of the skeleton in the available Erpetosuchus specimens, we cannot determine whether the erpetosuchid specimen we describe here belongs to Erpetosuchus granti (to which we show it is closely related) or if it represents a distinct new taxon. Nevertheless, our results shed light on rarely preserved details of erpetosuchid anatomy. Finally, the unanticipated new information extracted from both previously studied and neglected specimens suggests that fossil remains may be much more widely distributed in the Elgin quarries than previously recognised, and that the richness of the LSF might have been underestimated.
This paper provides specific guidelines for the neurodevelopmental evaluation of children aged birth through 5 years with complex congenital heart disease. There is wide recognition that children with congenital heart disease are at high risk for neurodevelopmental impairments that are first apparent in infancy and often persist as children mature. Impairments among children with complex congenital heart disease cross developmental domains and affect multiple functional abilities. The guidelines provided are derived from the substantial body of research generated over the past 30 years describing the characteristic developmental profiles and the long-term trajectories of children surviving with complex congenital heart conditions. The content and the timing of the guidelines are consistent with the 2012 American Heart Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics scientific statement documenting the need for ongoing developmental monitoring and assessment from infancy through adolescence. The specific guidelines offered in this article were developed by a multidisciplinary clinical research team affiliated with the Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Outcome Collaborative, a not-for-profit organisation established to determine and implement best neurodevelopmental practices for children with congenital heart disease. The guidelines are designed for use in clinical and research applications and offer an abbreviated core protocol and an extended version that expands the scope of the evaluation. The guidelines emphasise the value of early risk identification, use of evidence-based assessment instruments, consideration of family and cultural preferences, and the importance of providing multidimensional community-based services to remediate risk.
Although seafood is considered to be an important part of a balanced diet, many national food consumption surveys suggest that seafood is not consumed in sufficient amounts. As consumers are moving to diversify their diet from animal-based protein, it is important to understand the factors influencing consumption of marine foods. This review aims to assess the characteristics of seafood consumers as well as the influences on seafood consumption in Europe, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Systematic search strategies were used to identify relevant journal articles from three electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science and Embase). Three searches were carried out and identified 4405 unique publications from which 121 met the criteria for the review process. The reviewed studies revealed that seafood consumers were more likely to be older, more affluent and more physically active and were less likely to smoke compared with non-seafood consumers. Sex and BMI did not appear to have a directional association with seafood consumption. The most commonly reported barriers to seafood consumption were cost, followed by sensory or physical barriers, health and nutritional beliefs, habits, availability and cooking skills. The most commonly reported influences were beliefs about the contribution of seafood to health, environmental influences and personal preferences. Based on the findings of this review, future intervention strategies to increase seafood consumption may need to consider affordability and education in terms of health, nutrition and cooking skills. More research is needed to explore the effectiveness of specific interventions at increasing the consumption of seafood.
Whilst it is important that we treat patients with depression in primary care if possible there are many patients with depression who will need the more expert support provided in secondary care.
Aims and methods
An Anonymised Database held by the Bedford East Community Mental Health Team was studied to assess what factors were related to the use of Augmentation Strategies to treat resistant depression.
Of the total 282 patients 109 (38.7%) were on augmentation therapy. In the F32 and F33 group just over a third of the patients (35.8% and 37.1%) were on augmentation therapy and in the F41.2 group over a half of patients (56.7%) were on augmentation therapy.
There does seem to be a relationship between the number of risk factors a patient has and the likelihood that they are on augmentation. Particularly strong factors are another psychiatric diagnosis and ‘other suicide risk factors’.
Generally the patients coming to secondary care with more of the specified risk factors are more likely to need augmentation.
In recent years there has been a move towards treating depressed patients in the community.One factor that may reduce the likelihood of discharge from secondary care is suicidality. The aim of this audit was to identify factors associated with continued suicidality among Community patients.
Subjects and methods
We searched an anonymised database of patients and identified all those with previously documented suicidal thoughts or attempts. We also noted the presence of factors such as alcohol problems, drug problems, augmentation therapy and ‘other risk’ factors (e.g. financial problems or homelessness). We assessed the latest clinic letter, to see if patients were still reporting suicidality. We compared the aforementioned factors between the group of patients in which suicidality was still present (group N) and the group of patients in which suicidality was no longer a feature (group Y).
Of the 56 patients with suicidal thoughts or attempts there were 44 in group N (79%) and 12 in group Y (21%). Alcohol problems, drug problems and ‘other’ risk factors were more common among group Y than group N. Conversely, the percentage of patients on augmentation therapy was greater in group N than group Y.
The audit provides an insight into the factors that might influence outcomes among depressed patients.
Although the results are suggestive, it is difficult to make firm conclusions about patient outcomes on the present data. The audit provides a useful starting point, especially in considering the treatment of patients within the CMHT.
Strategies for the treatment of refractory depression include “switching” and “augmentation”. in recent years, there has been particular interest in the use of augmentation.
The purpose of this audit was to define patient factors among people receiving augmentation therapy with either mirtazepine or atypical antipsychotics.
Subjects and methods:
We searched an anonymised database of patients and identified those receiving augmentation with mirtazepine (group A), atypical antipsychotics (group B) or both (group C). for each of the three groups we recorded the following factors: (1) age, (2) sex, (3) suicidal ideation, (4) alcohol problems, (5) drug problems, (6) domestic problems (e.g. debts, child abuse & domestic violence) (7) psychotic symptoms and (8) co-existing physical diagnoses.
Group B spanned a wider range of ages than either of the other two groups. Group A contained the highest proportion of patients with suicidal ideation than either. Alcohol problems were most common in group A, drug problems most common in group B and domestic problems most common in group C. Perhaps unsurprisingly psychotic symptoms were present in a relatively high percentage of patients in group B. there was little difference in physical co-morbidities between the three groups.
The audit reveals some interesting differences in patient factors between the three groups. Knowledge about such differences is useful in practical terms because it allows doctors in the BCMHT to target therapy for different patients towards their specific needs.
Potential augmentation regimes include the addition of atypical antipsychotics or other antidepressants (e.g. mirtazepine). there is growing evidence in the literature to support the efficacy of both the aforementioned augmentation strategies.
The purpose of this audit was to compare patient outcomes between groups receiving different augmentation strategies.
Subjects and methods:
We searched an anonymised database of patients and identified those receiving augmentation with mirtazepine (group A), atypical antipsychotics (group B) or both (group C). for each patient we noted
(1) The discharge status and
(2) The presence of suicidal ideation.
We then looked at clinical notes to find out whether or not patients were still reporting suicidality.
The proportion of patients who had been discharged was highest in group A. the percentage of patients still reporting suicidal thoughts was higher in group B than in groups A or C.
Augmentation with mirtazepine resulted in better outcomes in terms of both discharge rates and in terms of reduction in suicidality than augmentation with atypical antipsychotics. One explanation for this is that mirtazepine augmentation is a more effective method of treatment in patients with refractory depression. However, it is also possible that differences in patient factors (e.g. age and drug problems) between the different treatment groups could contribute to variability in outcomes. A previous audit (Holt et al, 2011) has already confirmed that such differences do exist among the patients being analysed in this audit.
Out of hours, there is only one on-site junior doctor. First year psychiatry trainees (CT1s) and GP trainees may have no prior experience in psychiatry. On-call shifts are therefore potentially daunting for new trainees.
Expand the resources available for trainees when on-call.
We issued questionnaires to CT1s asking if they would have appreciated more information about on-call scenarios and in what format.
Based on the questionnaire results we implemented some changes. These were:
– a printed “pocket-guide” summarising common on-call scenarios;
– a training video on common on-call scenarios.
The handout was given to new trainees in February 2016 and in August 2016. The video was shown to new trainees in August 2016. Trainees provided feedback on the resources.
Of 24 CT1s, 15 (63%) were “neutral” or “disagreed” that they had felt prepared for on-calls.
CT1s wanted additional resources, especially a paper handout or phone download.
Feedback on the “pocket-guide” from trainees in February 2016 (n = 8) was positive (62.5% reported increased confidence in on-call situations). Feedback is also being collected from trainees who received the guide in August 2016.
Trainees in August 2016 (n = 36) liked the video – no trainees “disagreed” with statements asking if the video had been useful.
The video improved the confidence of trainees about on-call situations by an average of 2.8 points.
We have expanded available resources relating to on-calls and improved confidence. Further improvements would include making resources more easily available in downloadable formats.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Enterococcus causes clinically significant bloodstream infections (BSIs). In centers with a higher prevalence of vancomycin resistant enterococcus (VRE) colonization, a common clinical question is whether empiric treatment directed against VRE should be initiated in the setting of a suspected enterococcal BSI. Unfortunately, VRE treatment options are limited, and relatively expensive, and subject patients to the risk of adverse reactions. We hypothesized that the results of VRE colonization screening could predict vancomycin resistance in enterococcal BSI.
We reviewed 370 consecutive cases of enterococcal BSI over a 7-year period at 2 tertiary-care hospitals to determine whether vancomycin-resistant BSIs could be predicted based on known colonization status (ie, patients with swabs performed within 30 days, more remotely, or never tested). We calculated sensitivity and specificity, and we plotted negative predictives values (NPVs) and positive predictive values (PPVs) as a function of prevalence.
A negative screening swab within 30 days of infection yielded NPVs of 90% and 95% in settings where <27.0% and 15.0% of enterococcal BSI are resistant to vancomycin, respectively. In patients with known VRE colonization, the PPV for VRE in enterococcal BSI was >50% at any prevalence exceeding 25%.
The results of a negative VRE screening test result performed within 30 days can help eliminate unnecessary empiric therapy in patients with suspected enterococcal BSI. Conversely, patients with positive VRE screening swabs require careful consideration of empiric VRE-directed therapy when enterococcal BSI appears likely.
The Australian prime lamb industry is seeking to improve lean meat yield (LMY) as a means to increasing efficiency and profitability across the whole value chain. The LMY of prime lambs is affected by genetics and on-farm nutrition from birth to slaughter and is the total muscle weight relative to the total carcass weight. Under the production conditions of south eastern Australia, many ewe flocks experience a moderate reduction in nutrition in mid to late pregnancy due to a decrease in pasture availability and quality. Correcting nutritional deficits throughout gestation requires the feeding of supplements. This enables the pregnant ewe to meet condition score (CS) targets at lambing. However, limited resources on farm often mean it is difficult to effectively manage nutritional supplementation of the pregnant ewe flock. The impact of reduced ewe nutrition in mid to late pregnancy on the body composition of finishing lambs and subsequent carcass composition remains unknown. This study investigated the effect of moderately reducing ewe nutrition in mid to late gestation on the body composition of finishing lambs and carcass composition at slaughter on a commercial scale. Multiple born lambs to CS2.5 target ewes were lighter at birth and weaning, had lower feedlot entry and exit weights with lower pre-slaughter and carcass weights compared with CS3.0 and CS3.5 target ewes. These lambs also had significantly lower eye muscle and fat depth when measured by ultrasound prior to slaughter and carcass subcutaneous fat depth measured 110 mm from the spine along the 12th rib (GR 12th) and at the C-site (C-fat). Although carcasses were ~5% lighter, results showed that male progeny born to ewes with reduced nutrition from day 50 gestation to a target CS2.5 at lambing had a higher percentage of lean tissue mass as measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and a lower percentage of fat during finishing and at slaughter, with the multiple born progeny from CS3.0 and CS3.5 target ewes being similar. These data suggest lambs produced from multiple bearing ewes that have had a moderate reduction in nutrition during pregnancy are less mature. This effect was also independent of lamb finishing system. The 5% reduction in carcass weight observed in this study would have commercially relevant consequences for prime lamb producers, despite a small gain in LMY.
The COllaborative project of Development of Anthropometrical measures in Twins (CODATwins) project is a large international collaborative effort to analyze individual-level phenotype data from twins in multiple cohorts from different environments. The main objective is to study factors that modify genetic and environmental variation of height, body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) and size at birth, and additionally to address other research questions such as long-term consequences of birth size. The project started in 2013 and is open to all twin projects in the world having height and weight measures on twins with information on zygosity. Thus far, 54 twin projects from 24 countries have provided individual-level data. The CODATwins database includes 489,981 twin individuals (228,635 complete twin pairs). Since many twin cohorts have collected longitudinal data, there is a total of 1,049,785 height and weight observations. For many cohorts, we also have information on birth weight and length, own smoking behavior and own or parental education. We found that the heritability estimates of height and BMI systematically changed from infancy to old age. Remarkably, only minor differences in the heritability estimates were found across cultural–geographic regions, measurement time and birth cohort for height and BMI. In addition to genetic epidemiological studies, we looked at associations of height and BMI with education, birth weight and smoking status. Within-family analyses examined differences within same-sex and opposite-sex dizygotic twins in birth size and later development. The CODATwins project demonstrates the feasibility and value of international collaboration to address gene-by-exposure interactions that require large sample sizes and address the effects of different exposures across time, geographical regions and socioeconomic status.
Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who experience acute exacerbations usually require treatment with oral steroids or antibiotics, depending on the etiology of the exacerbation. Current management is based on clinician's assessment and judgement, which lacks diagnostic accuracy and results in overtreatment. A test to guide these decisions in primary care is in development. We developed an early decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this treatment stratification test in the primary care setting in the United Kingdom.
A combined decision tree and Markov model was developed of COPD progression and the exacerbation care pathway. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to guide technology development and inform evidence generation requirements.
The base case test strategy cost GBP 423 (USD 542) less and resulted in a health gain of 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years per patient compared with not testing. Testing reduced antibiotic prescriptions by 30 percent, potentially lowering the risk of antimicrobial resistance developing. In sensitivity analysis, the result depended on the clinical effects of treating patients according to the test result, as opposed to treating according to clinical judgement alone, for which there is limited evidence. The results were less sensitive to the accuracy of the test.
Testing may be cost-saving in primary care, but this requires robust evidence on whether test-guided treatment is effective. High quality evidence on the clinical utility of testing is required for early modeling of diagnostic tests generally.
Filamentary structures can form within the beam of protons accelerated during the interaction of an intense laser pulse with an ultrathin foil target. Such behaviour is shown to be dependent upon the formation time of quasi-static magnetic field structures throughout the target volume and the extent of the rear surface proton expansion over the same period. This is observed via both numerical and experimental investigations. By controlling the intensity profile of the laser drive, via the use of two temporally separated pulses, both the initial rear surface proton expansion and magnetic field formation time can be varied, resulting in modification to the degree of filamentary structure present within the laser-driven proton beam.
Parts I through III of this paper will examine several, increasingly comprehensive forms of aggregation, ranging from insurance reimbursement “lock-in” programs to PDMPs to completely unified electronic medical records (EMRs). Each part will advocate for the adoption of these aggregation systems and provide suggestions for effective implementation in the fight against opioid misuse. All PDMPs are not made equal, however, and Part II will, therefore, focus on several elements — mandating prescriber usage, streamlining the user interface, ensuring timely data uploads, creating a national data repository, mitigating privacy concerns, and training doctors on how to respond to perceived doctor-shopping — that can make these systems more effective. In each part, we will also discuss the privacy concerns of aggregating data, ranging from minimal to significant, and highlight the unique role of stigma in motivating these concerns. In Part IV, we will conclude by suggesting remedial steps to offset this loss of privacy and to combat the stigma around SUDs and mental health disorders in general.
At the QEII Health Sciences Centre Emergency Department (ED) in Halifax, Nova Scotia, advanced care paramedics (ACPs) perform procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA) for many indications, including orthopedic procedures. We have begun using ACPs as sedationists for emergent upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy. This study compares ACP-performed ED PSA for UGI endoscopy and orthopedic procedures in terms of adverse events, airway intervention, vasopressor requirement, and PSA medication use.
A data set was built from an ED PSA quality control database matching 61 UGI endoscopy PSAs to 183 orthopedic PSAs by propensity scores calculated using age, gender, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. Outcomes assessed were hypotension (systolic BP<100 mm Hg or a 15% decrease from baseline), hypoxia (SaO2<90%), apnea (>30 sec), vomiting, arrhythmias, death, airway intervention, vasopressor requirement, and PSA medication use.
UGI endoscopy patients experienced hypotension more frequently than orthopedic patients (OR=4.11, CI: 2.05-8.22) and required airway repositioning less often (OR=0.24, CI: 0.10-0.59). They received ketamine more frequently (OR=15.7, CI: 4.75-67.7) and fentanyl less often (OR=0.30, CI: 0.15-0.63) than orthopedic patients. Four endoscopy patients received phenylephrine, and one required intubation. No patient died in either group.
In ACP-led sedation for UGI endoscopy and orthopedic procedures, adverse events were rare with the notable exception of hypotension, which was more frequent in the endoscopy group. Only endoscopy patients required vasopressor treatment and intubation. We provide preliminary evidence that ACPs can manage ED PSA for emergent UGI endoscopy, although priorities must shift from pain control to hemodynamic optimization.
Primary care clinicians have a central role in managing influenza/influenza-like illness (ILI) during influenza pandemics. This study identifies risk factors for influenza-related complications in children presenting with influenza/ILI in primary care. We conducted a cohort study using routinely collected linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink on children aged 17 years and younger who presented with influenza/ILI during the 2009/10 pandemic. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for potential risk factors in relation to influenza-related complications, complications requiring intervention, pneumonia, all-cause hospitalisation and hospitalisation due to influenza-related complications within 30 days of presentation. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders including age, vaccination and socio-economic deprivation. Asthma was a risk factor for influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21–1.80, P < 0.001), complications requiring intervention (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.11–1.88; P = 0.007), pneumonia (adjusted OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.07–2.51, P = 0.024) and hospitalisation due to influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.09–5.56, P = 0.031). Neurological conditions were risk factors for all-cause hospitalisation (adjusted OR 4.25, 95% CI 1.50–12.07, P = 0.007) but not influenza-related complications (adjusted OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.83–2.56, P = 0.189). Community-based early interventions to prevent influenza-related clinical deterioration should therefore be primarily targeted at children with asthma and neurological conditions.