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Recent evidence suggests that quitline text messaging is an effective treatment for smoking cessation, but little is known about the relative effectiveness of the message content.
A pilot study of the effects of gain-framed (GF; focused on the benefits of quitting) versus loss-framed (LF; focused on the costs of continued smoking) text messages among smokers contacting a quitline.
Participants were randomized to receive LF (N = 300) or GF (N = 300) text messages for 30 weeks. Self-reported 7-day point prevalence abstinence and number of 24 h quit attempts were assessed at week 30. Intent-to-treat (ITT) and responder analyses for smoking cessation were conducted using logistic regression.
The ITT analysis showed 17% of the GF group quit smoking compared to 15% in the LF group (P = 0.508). The responder analysis showed 44% of the GF group quit smoking compared to 35% in the LF group (P = 0.154). More participants in the GF group reported making a 24 h quit attempt compared to the LF group (98% vs. 93%, P = 0.046).
Although there were no differences in abstinence rates between groups at the week 30 follow-up, participants in the GF group made more quit attempts than those in the LF group.
Older adults often have atypical presentation of illness and are particularly vulnerable to influenza and its sequelae, making the validity of influenza case definitions particularly relevant. We sought to assess the performance of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) criteria in hospitalized older adults.
Prospective cohort study.
The Serious Outcomes Surveillance Network of the Canadian Immunization Research Network undertakes active surveillance for influenza among hospitalized adults.
Data were pooled from 3 influenza seasons: 2011/12, 2012/13, and 2013/14. The ILI and SARI criteria were defined clinically, and influenza was laboratory confirmed. Frailty was measured using a validated frailty index.
Of 11,379 adult inpatients (7,254 aged ≥65 years), 4,942 (2,948 aged ≥65 years) had laboratory-confirmed influenza. Their median age was 72 years (interquartile range [IQR], 58–82) and 52.6% were women. The sensitivity of ILI criteria was 51.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.6–52.6) for younger adults versus 44.6% (95% CI, 43.6–45.8) for older adults. SARI criteria were met by 64.1% (95% CI, 62.7–65.6) of younger adults versus 57.1% (95% CI, 55.9–58.2) of older adults with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Patients with influenza who were prefrail or frail were less likely to meet ILI and SARI case definitions.
A substantial proportion of older adults, particularly those who are frail, are missed by standard ILI and SARI case definitions. Surveillance using these case definitions is biased toward identifying younger cases, and does not capture the true burden of influenza. Because of the substantial fraction of cases missed, surveillance definitions should not be used to guide diagnosis and clinical management of influenza.
On low-input smallholder farms of Kenyan upland landscapes, erosion of nutrient-rich topsoil strongly affects crop yields. Where maize (Zea mays) is intercropped on erosion-prone slopes, intercropping can potentially reduce soil erosion. The objective of this research was to quantify the contribution of crops and crop mixtures of different growth habits to erosion control and their influence on above-ground biomass and earthworm abundance as indicators of soil function in smallholder farming systems under a bimodal rainfall pattern in Western Kenya. The experiment involved five treatments, namely maize (Z. mays)/common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) intercrop (maize intercrop), maize/common bean intercrop plus Calliandra (Calliandra calothyrsus) hedgerows and Calliandra mulch (Calliandra), sole Lablab (Lablab purpureus), sole Mucuna (Mucuna pruriens) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) intercropped with maize (during the short rains). The experiment was conducted over three consecutive cropping seasons and the cropping system had significant effects on soil loss, runoff, water infiltration, earthworm abundance and above-ground biomass and crop grain yield. The Calliandra treatment had the lowest runoff (11.6–17.2 mm ha−1) and soil erosion (31–446 kg ha−1 per season) in all the seasons, followed by the Mucuna treatment. Lablab was affected by disease and showed the highest soil erosion in the last two seasons. Infiltration was highest in Calliandra treatment, and earthworm abundance was higher under Mucuna and Calliandra treatments (229 and 165 earthworms per square metre, respectively) than under other crops. Our results suggest that including sole crops of herbaceous species such as Mucuna, or tree hedgerows with mixtures of maize and grain legumes has the potential to reduce runoff and soil erosion in smallholder farming. Additionally, these species provide a suitable habitat for earthworms which stabilise soil structure and macropores and thus potentially increase infiltration, further reducing soil erosion.
The Rio scale is a tool for communicating the significance of a signal to the general public. It assigns scores to signals detected in searches for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), which characterizes both the consequences of a signal and the probability the signal is truly from ETI, in an easily digestible format for laypeople to interpret. In the 17 years since its construction, the number of groups actively conducting searches for evidence of intelligent life beyond the Earth has increased significantly, and theoretical work has established a new suite of observables that are capable of revealing the presence of ETI in a range of astronomical observations. In this paper, we revise the Rio scale, with the aim of (i) achieving consensus across academic disciplines on a scheme for classifying signals potentially indicating the existence of advanced extraterrestrial life, (ii) supplying a pedagogical tool to help inform the public about the process scientists go through to develop an understanding of a signal and (iii) providing a means of calibrating the expectations of the world at large when signals are discussed in the media. We also present (and encourage the SETI community to adopt) a single set of consistent terminology for discussing signals.
The catchments of Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are two of the largest, most rapidly changing, and potentially unstable sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. They are also neighboring outlets, separated by the topographically unconfined eastern shear margin of Thwaites Glacier and the southwest tributary of Pine Island Glacier. This tributary begins just downstream of the eastern shear margin and flows into the Pine Island ice shelf. As a result, it is a potential locus of interaction between the two glaciers and could result in cross-catchment feedback during the retreat of either. Here, we analyze relative basal reflectivity profiles from three radar sounding survey lines collected using the UTIG HiCARS radar system in 2004 and CReSIS MCoRDS radar system in 2012 and 2014 to investigate the extent and character of ocean access beneath the southwest tributary. These profiles provide evidence of ocean access ~12 km inland of the 1992–2011 InSAR-derived grounding line by 2014, suggesting either retreat since 2011 or the intrusion of ocean water kilometers inland of the grounding line.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide an essential tool in statistics for sampling from complex probability distributions. While the standard approach to MCMC involves constructing discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernel is obtained via the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, there has been recent interest in alternative schemes based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). One such approach is based on the zig-zag process, introduced in Bierkens and Roberts (2016), which proved to provide a highly scalable sampling scheme for sampling in the big data regime; see Bierkens et al. (2016). In this paper we study the performance of the zig-zag sampler, focusing on the one-dimensional case. In particular, we identify conditions under which a central limit theorem holds and characterise the asymptotic variance. Moreover, we study the influence of the switching rate on the diffusivity of the zig-zag process by identifying a diffusion limit as the switching rate tends to ∞. Based on our results we compare the performance of the zig-zag sampler to existing Monte Carlo methods, both analytically and through simulations.
This book presents a wide range of new research on many aspects of naval strategy in the early modern and modern periods. Among the themes covered are the problems of naval manpower, the nature of naval leadership and naval officers, intelligence, naval training and education, and strategic thinking and planning. The book is notable for giving extensive consideration to navies other than those ofBritain, its empire and the United States. It explores a number of fascinating subjects including how financial difficulties frustrated the attempts by Louis XIV's ministers to build a strong navy; how the absence of centralised power in the Dutch Republic had important consequences for Dutch naval power; how Hitler's relationship with his admirals severely affected German naval strategy during the Second World War; and many more besides. The book is a Festschrift in honour of John B. Hattendorf, for more than thirty years Ernest J. King Professor of Maritime History at the US Naval War College and an influential figure in naval affairs worldwide.
N.A.M. Rodger is Senior Research Fellow at All Souls College, Oxford.
J. Ross Dancy is Assistant Professor of Military History at Sam Houston State University.
Benjamin Darnell is a D.Phil. candidate at New College, Oxford.
Evan Wilson is Caird Senior Research Fellow at the National Maritime Museum, Greenwich.
Contributors: Tim Benbow, Peter John Brobst, Jaap R. Bruijn, Olivier Chaline, J. Ross Dancy, Benjamin Darnell, James Goldrick, Agustín Guimerá, Paul Kennedy, Keizo Kitagawa, Roger Knight, Andrew D. Lambert, George C. Peden, Carla Rahn Phillips, Werner Rahn, Paul M. Ramsey, Duncan Redford, N.A.M. Rodger, Jakob Seerup, Matthew S. Seligmann, Geoffrey Till, Evan Wilson
It is unknown whether there are racial differences in the heritability of major depressive disorder (MDD) because most psychiatric genetic studies have been conducted in samples comprised largely of white non-Hispanics. To examine potential differences between African-American (AA) and European-American (EA) young adult women in (1) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) MDD prevalence, symptomatology, and risk factors, and (2) genetic and/or environmental liability to MDD, we analyzed data from a large population-representative sample of twins ascertained from birth records (n = 550 AA and n = 3226 EA female twins) aged 18–28 years at the time of MDD assessment by semi-structured psychiatric interview. AA women were more likely to have MDD risk factors; however, there were no significant differences in lifetime MDD prevalence between AA and EA women after adjusting for covariates (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67–1.15). Most MDD risk factors identified among AA women were also associated with MDD at similar magnitudes among EA women. Although the MDD heritability point estimate was higher among AA women than EA women in a model with paths estimated separately by race (56%, 95% CI: 29–78% vs. 41%, 95% CI: 29–52%), the best fitting model was one in which additive genetic and non-shared environmental paths for AA and EA women were constrained to be equal (A = 43%, 33–53% and E = 57%, 47–67%). In spite of a marked elevation in the prevalence of environmental risk exposures related to MDD among AA women, there were no significant differences in lifetime prevalence or heritability of MDD between AA and EA young women.
The Mojave Desert has been long considered a suitable terrestrial analogue to Mars in many geological and astrobiological aspects. The Silver Lake region in the Mojave Desert hosts several different rock types (talc, marble, quartz, white carbonate and red-coated carbonate) colonized by hypoliths within a few kilometres. This provides an opportunity to investigate the effect of rock type on hypolithic colonization in a given environment. Transmission measurements from 300 to 800 nm showed that the transmission of blue and UVA varied between rock types. The wavelength at which the transmission fell to 1% of the transmission at 600 nm was 475 nm for white carbonate and quartz, 425 nm for red-coated carbonate and talc and 380 nm for marble. The comparative analysis of the cyanobacterial component of hypoliths under different rocks, as revealed by sequencing 16S rRNA gene clone libraries, showed no significant variation with rock type; hypoliths were dominated by phylotypes of the genus Chroococcidiopsis, although less abundant phylotypes of the genus Loriellopsis, Leptolyngbya and Scytonema occurred. The comparison of the confocal laser scanning microscopy-λ (CLSM-λ) scan analysis of the spectral emission of the photosynthetic pigments of Chroococcidiopsis in different rocks with the spectrum of isolated Chroococcidiopsis sp. 029, revealed a 10 nm red shift in the emission fingerprinting for quartz and carbonate and a 5 nm red shift for talc samples. This result reflects the versatility of Chroococcidiopsis in inhabiting dry niches with different light availability for photosynthesis.