Land degradation and declining productivity in the Ethiopian Highlands are primarily caused by soil fertility decline due to erosion, nutrient depletion, and soil acidity. An integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) project operating over a six-year period aimed to combat this and boost yields through participatory demonstrations. Despite high levels of yield variability expected from a farmer-managed observational study over a wide area, results show that crop yields increased with increased use of ISFM. Detailed statistical analysis using multiple linear regression models explained the contribution of individual practices. Use of improved varieties and line-seeding rather than broadcasting were consistently and highly significant. The contribution of inorganic blended fertiliser was less clear, probably due to low soil organic matter and use on acidic soils, although response to nitrogen was highly significant. The contribution of organic fertilisers was less than expected, possibly due to soil disturbance from farmer practices of multiple ploughing. Responses to crop residue management and agroforestry practices were significant on most crops reflecting their importance in improving soil water management, soil organic matter and recycling nutrients. Response to lime application on acid soils was highly significant confirming the importance of correcting acidity. Unexplained differences are attributed to the additive effects of using several ISFM treatments as well as unrecorded beneficial farmer management practices. It can be concluded that ISFM can play an essential role in improving productivity, addressing food insecurity and the challenges of climate change. Further expansion will require advocacy, awareness-raising, field-level extension and involvement of the private sector.

The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling, and ice-shelf stability. The structure of firn can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz–Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is strictly appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, full waveform inversion (FWI) may yield more success than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals. Using synthetic firn density profiles, assuming both steady- and non-steady-state accumulation, we show that FWI outperforms HWI for detecting ice slab boundaries (5–80 m thick, 5–80 m deep) and velocity anomalies within firn. FWI can detect slabs thicker than one wavelength (here, 20 m, assuming a maximum frequency of 60 Hz) but requires the starting velocity model to be accurate to ±2.5%. We recommend for field practice that the shallowest layers of velocity models are constrained with ground-truth data. Nonetheless, FWI shows advantages over established methods, and should be considered when the characterisation of firn ice slabs is the goal of the seismic survey.

The density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling and for ice shelf stability. The firn structure can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz-Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) can be more successful than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals, thus offering a more accurate estimate of a velocity profile. We show the FWI characterisation of the velocity model has an error of only 1.7% for regions (vs. 4.2% with HWI) with an ice slab (20 m thick, 40 m deep) in an otherwise steady-state firn profile.

‘Dietary variety’ has been identified as a factor associated with food intake. Whilst this relationship may have longer-term benefits for body weight management when eating low-energy, nutrient-dense foods, it may increase the risk of overconsumption (and body adiposity) when foods are high energy density. This study sought to further explore pathways underpinning the relationship between dietary variety and body weight, by considering energy density as a moderating factor and portion size as a mediating factor in this relationship. Using prospective data from the UK Biobank, dietary variety scores (DVS), cumulative portion size and energy density were derived from 24-h dietary recall questionnaires at baseline and follow-up. BMI, whole-body fat percentage and fat-free mass were included as outcomes. Contrary to predictions, linear multiple regression models found some evidence of a negative, direct association between DVS and body weight outcomes at baseline (b = –0·13). Though dietary variety was significantly associated with larger portions across time points (b = 41·86–82·64), a moderated mediation effect was not supported at baseline or follow-up (Index ≤ 0·035). Taken together, these findings provide population-level evidence to support a positive association between variety and food intake, which in turn has potential implications for body weight management, both in terms of moderating food intake and benefitting diet quality.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, public-health decision makers have increasingly relied on hospitalization forecasts that are routinely provided, accurate, and based on timely input data to inform pandemic planning. In North Carolina, we adapted an existing agent-based model (ABM) to produce 30-day hospitalization forecasts of COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 hospitalizations for use by public-health decision makers. We sought to continually improve model speed and accuracy during forecasting. Methods: The geospatially explicit ABM included movement of agents (ie, patients) among 104 short-term acute-care hospitals, 10 long-term acute-care hospitals, 421 licensed nursing homes, and the community in North Carolina. Agents were based on a synthetic population of North Carolina residents (ie, >10.4 million agents). We assigned SARS-CoV-2 infections to agents according to county-level susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) models informed by reported COVID-19 cases by county. Agents’ COVID-19 severity and probability of hospitalization were determined using agent-specific characteristics (eg, age, comorbidities). During May 2020–December 2020, we produced weekly 30-day forecasts of intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU bed occupancy for COVID-19 agents and non–COVID-19 agents statewide and by region under a range of SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction numbers. During the reporting period, we identified optimizations for faster results turnaround. We evaluated the incorporation of real-time hospital-level occupancy data at model initialization on forecast accuracy using mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Results: During May 2020–December 2020, we provided 31 weekly reports of 30-day hospitalization forecasts with a 1-day turnaround time. Reports included (1) raw and smoothed 7-day average values for 42 model output variables; (2) static visuals of ICU and non-ICU bed demand and capacity; and (3) an interactive Tableau workbook of hospital demand variables. Identifying code efficiencies reduced a single model runtime from ~100 seconds to 28 seconds. The use of cloud computing reduced simulation runtime from ~20 hours to 15 minutes. Across forecasts, the average MAPEs were 21.6% and 7.1% for ICU and non-ICU bed demand, respectively. By incorporating hospital-level occupancy data, we reduced the average MAPE to 6.5% for ICU bed demand and 3.9% for non-ICU bed demand, indicating improved accuracy. Conclusions: We adapted an ABM and continually improved it during COVID-19 forecasting by optimizing code and computing resources and including real-time hospital-level occupancy data. Planned SEIR model updates for enhanced forecasts include the addition of compartments for undocumented infections and recoveries as well as permission of reinfection from recovered compartments.

Funding: No

Disclosures: None

Ralph Waldo Emerson is known to have said, “the greatest wonder is that we can see these trees and not wonder more.” As industrial and organizational (I-O) psychologists, we often encounter this very dilemma when we examine how numerous professions rise and fall in relevance. More recently, however, we have encountered this dilemma from an existential perspective as we strive to understand the evolution of our own profession and the situational characteristics making change inevitable. We have fallen into a trap—we, too, now look at all of our practices, aiming to reconfigure the makeup of our profession while losing sight of the macrotrends affecting more than just our evolved existence. Rather than focusing on the smaller issue first, we need to start by examining the broader issues affecting it.

The paper discusses the Garboldisham macehead: an unusual decorated macehead carved from red deer antler. The macehead was found in the 1960s deposited in a tributary of the river Little Ouse, Norfolk and is decorated with three spirals, making it especially significant. This paper reports on the analysis of the decoration using digital imaging, discusses a new radiocarbon date recently obtained for the artefact, and discusses its significance alongside other dated antler maceheads.

Due to rising pressure to appear egalitarian, subtle discrimination pervades today's workplace. Although its ambiguous nature may make it seem innocuous on the surface, an abundance of empirical evidence suggests subtle discrimination undermines employee and organizational functioning, perhaps even more so than its overt counterpart. In the following article, we argue for a multidimensional and continuous, rather than categorical, framework for discrimination. In doing so, we propose that there exist several related but distinct continuums on which instances of discrimination vary, including subtlety, formality, and intentionality. Next, we argue for organizational scholarship to migrate toward a more developmental, dynamic perspective of subtle discrimination in order to build a more comprehensive understanding of its antecedents, underlying mechanisms, and outcomes. We further contend that everyone plays a part in the process of subtle discrimination at work and, as a result, bears some responsibility in addressing and remediating it. We conclude with a brief overview of research on subtle discrimination in the workplace from each of four stakeholder perspectives—targets, perpetrators, bystanders, and allies—and review promising strategies that can be implemented by each of these stakeholders to remediate subtle discrimination in the workplace.

Radiocarbon dating and Bayesian chronological modelling, undertaken as part of the investigation by the Times of Their Lives project into the development of Late Neolithic settlement and pottery in Orkney, has provided precise new dating for the Grooved Ware settlement of Barnhouse, excavated in 1985–91. Previous understandings of the site and its pottery are presented. A Bayesian model based on 70 measurements on 62 samples (of which 50 samples are thought to date accurately the deposits from which they were recovered) suggests that the settlement probably began in the later 32nd century cal bc (with Houses 2, 9, 3 and perhaps 5a), possibly as a planned foundation. Structure 8 – a large, monumental structure that differs in character from the houses – was probably built just after the turn of the millennium. Varied house durations and replacements are estimated. House 2 went out of use before the end of the settlement, and Structure 8 was probably the last element to be abandoned, probably during the earlier 29th century cal bc. The Grooved Ware pottery from the site is characterised by small, medium-sized, and large vessels with incised and impressed decoration, including a distinctive, false-relief, wavy-line cordon motif. A considerable degree of consistency is apparent in many aspects of ceramic design and manufacture over the use-life of the settlement, the principal change being the appearance, from c. 3025–2975 cal bc, of large coarse ware vessels with uneven surfaces and thick applied cordons, and of the use of applied dimpled circular pellets. The circumstances of new foundation of settlement in the western part of Mainland are discussed, as well as the maintenance and character of the site. The pottery from the site is among the earliest Grooved Ware so far dated. Its wider connections are noted, as well as the significant implications for our understanding of the timing and circumstances of the emergence of Grooved Ware, and the role of material culture in social strategies.

A grant from the Department of Employment, Education and Training and matching funding from the University of Western Sydney, Nepean, has allowed the construction of a teaching and public access observatory on the University’s Werrington North campus. The observatory consists of a lecture theatre for about 50 students, an office for administration and project/souvenir sales, and an enclosed office for research activities. The 6·5 m dome will house a fork-mounted 0·6 m (24 inch) Ritchey-Chrétien telescope working at f/10. There will also be two outside observation areas for tripod-mounted telescopes. The expected completion date for the entire project is mid-1994.