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The mechanisms by which democracies process conflicts are examined. Conflicts managed through elections are distinguished from those that arise between elections.
Lessons from past crises of demoracy are drawn. If the past is a guide, we should be looking at economic conditions: income, its growth, and its distribution, consider the democratic history of a particular country, and pay attention to the intensity of divisions in society.
The main question is whether the observed political patterns can be attributed to economic causes or to some cultural transformations not reducible to economics. A vast plethora of empirical studies is summarized.
Economic, political, and institutional features of democracies that survived until 2008 and of those that collapsed are compared. The vulnerability of democracies to different types of crises is examined.
Potential causes of the current crisis are catalogued and examined. They may include globalization, technological change, breakdown of class compromise, immigration, authorization of prejudices by some insurgent politicians, or something else?
A concept of crises is developed to serve as the framework for subsequent analysis. Economic inequality and the quest for political power are identified as recurrent threats to democracy.
The rapid erosion of traditional party systems, the rise of the radical Right, and the decline of support for democracy in surveys are documented and analyzed.
The conclusions are drawn by identifying the range of possibilities contained in the current crisis. Positive and negative economic trends are documented. Populism is shown to be endemic in representative institutions. Deep social and cultural roots of the crisis are emphasized.
Democracy can be eroded by governments that use only constitutional means to monopolize power and gain discretion in policy making. Opposition can be effective only if citizens are forward looking, anticipating cumulative consequences.