To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure email@example.com
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
This chapter provides an outlook of the issues, born out of the material presented in the book, that will likely be at the center of future developments of the field. They are organized following the scheme set by the preceding chapters.
This chapter illustrates the implications of river network structure for the spread of waterborne diseases. Human mobility is also added as a driver and a network of interaction. The water-related (WR) diseases considered are epidemic cholera, endemic schistosomiasis, and proliferative kidney disease in fish. After reviewing the basic (space-implicit) epidemiological models for micro- and micro-parasites, general space-explicit models for both kinds of parasites are studied. Both the hydrologic and the human mobility network are included, and the general conditions for disease establishment are derived, including also the case of seasonal forcings. Conditions for transient (though possibly large) epidemics are also found. The microparasitic model is applied to several cholera epidemics, including the one that has been devastating Haiti. Spatially explicit macroparasitic models of schistosomiasis are then analyzed and applied to the cases of Senegal and Burkina Faso. Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) in salmonid fish, a pathology linked to global warming, is modeled. The space-explicit approach is used for the study of PKD spread in the basin of the river Wigger (Switzerland).
Three separate appendices, rather technical, compose this chapter. The first deals with the stability of dynamical systems and bifurcation analysis, the second with a background and rationale for optimal channel networks. The third deals with computational tools: Matlab code is explained and run, and results are highlighted. The source codes may be downloaded at www.epfl.ch/labs/echo/.
The chapter explores the problem of species spread in river systems. It introduces the basic quantitative tools for dealing with the topic: first advection-diffusion-reaction traditional equations, then more modern approaches via interacting particle systems and reaction random walks on graphs. The Mississippi-Missouri river system is once again taken as the epitomizing river network: the dramatic invasion of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha), seeded by the accidental discharge of ballast water from European cargo ships in the Great Lakes region, is studied via a multilayer network model, including not only hydrology but also the displacement due to anthropic activity. Advanced laboratory experiments are then described and modeled in which the response of the alga Euglena gracilis when exposed to controlled light fields is analyzed. This allows insight into the problem of how spatial resource availability shapes the invasion patterns of riverine populations. Finally, a thorough analysis of mixing and dispersion in river systems is the basic tool to tackle a problem of enormous interest, namely, estimating species distribution and abundance using environmental DNA.
The introductory chapter outlines the leit-motiv of the book – dendritic substrates for ecological interactions, chief and foremost river networks in our case, bear important consequences for a number of processes, from patterns of biodiversity to controls of spreading of waterborne disease. In this chapter we discuss important methodological aspects of spatially explicit ecology that are used throughout the book.
The chapter is not a complete review of the subject but rather contains a specific choice of topics relevant to the general concepts of biodiversity in river networks. It first explores the fish diversity of the Mississippi-Missouri river system via a hierarchical metacommunity model that includes river hydrology and habitat suitability. Illustrated is the role of the frequency distribution of shear stresses in determining the spatially explicit probability distribution functions of benthic invertebrate habitat suitability. The viewpoint is then broadened by addressing general metapopulation persistence in river networks; this is achieved by analyzing stage-structured populations that exploit different dispersal pathways, both alongstream and overland. Examples are given with reference to amphibians. Gradients of biodiversity in fluvial landscapes, as determined by changes in elevation, is the next topic. The characteristic features of hump-shaped patterns of species richness along elevational gradients are derived, using both idealized (but realistic) fluvial landscapes and real landscapes of the Swiss Alps. The approach allows also the outline of possible consequences of climate change.
River networks are critically important ecosystems. This interdisciplinary book provides an integrated ecohydrological framework blending laboratory, field, and theoretical evidence that changes our understanding of river networks as ecological corridors. It describes how the physical structure of the river environment impacts biodiversity, species invasions, population dynamics, and the spread of waterborne disease. State-of-the-art research on the ecological roles of the structure of river networks is summarized, including important studies on the spread and control of waterborne diseases, biodiversity loss due to water resource management, and invasions by non-native species. Practical implications of this research are illustrated with numerous examples throughout. This is an invaluable go-to reference for graduate students and researchers interested in river ecology and hydrology, and the links between the two. Describing new related research on spatially-explicit modeling of the spread of waterborne disease, this book will also be of great interest to epidemiologists and public health managers.
To correlate the clinical, laboratory, and radiographic characteristics of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 disease, with fatal outcome.
We reviewed Chest X-Ray (CXR) features, clinical, and laboratory data of patients with RT-PCR confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. The relationship with mortality was investigated by fitting a logistic regression model.
246 patients were included (170 males; mean age: 63). Most of the patients had one or more comorbidity (62%); fever (95%) and cough (60%) were the most common symptoms; CXR detected abnormalities in 88.6%, mainly showing ground-glass opacities (GGO) (90 %) with bilateral (64%) and peripheral (46%) distribution.
Multivariate analysis showed that age (p<.001; mortality of 59% in patients >66 years old; 5% at a younger age) and consolidation at CXR (p=.001; mortality of 11% with positive CXR; 2% in those without) represented the two most significant independent risk factors of mortality. Chronic pathologies such as diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and peripheral GGO at CXR also showed a significant correlation with mortality.
We identified predictive factors for the fatal outcome of COVID-19 patients. The prognostic value of these findings can be useful for the right patient management and resource allocation.
Various psychological and biological pathways have been proposed as mediators between childhood adversity (CA) and psychosis. A systematic review of the evidence in this domain is needed. Our aim is to systematically review the evidence on psychological and biological mediators between CA and psychosis across the psychosis spectrum. This review followed PRISMA guidelines. Articles published between 1979 and July 2019 were identified through a literature search in OVID (PsychINFO, Medline and Embase) and Cochrane Libraries. The evidence by each analysis and each study is presented by group of mediator categories found. The percentage of total effect mediated was calculated. Forty-eight studies were included, 21 in clinical samples and 27 in the general population (GP) with a total of 82 352 subjects from GP and 3189 from clinical studies. The quality of studies was judged as ‘fair’. Our results showed (i) solid evidence of mediation between CA and psychosis by negative cognitive schemas about the self, the world and others (NS); by dissociation and other post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms; and through an affective pathway in GP but not in subjects with disorder; (iii) lack of studies exploring biological mediators. We found evidence suggesting that various overlapping and not competing pathways involving post-traumatic and mood symptoms, as well as negative cognitions contribute partially to the link between CA and psychosis. Experiences of CA, along with relevant mediators should be routinely assessed in patients with psychosis. Evidence testing efficacy of interventions targeting such mediators through cognitive behavioural approaches and/or pharmacological means is needed in future.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to evaluate whether technical analysis (TA) indicators, commonly used in the financial market to spot security price trend reversals, might be proficiently used also to anticipate a possible increase of SARS-Cov-2 spread.
Analysis was performed on datasets from Italy, Iran, and Brazil. TA indicators tested were: (1) the combined use of a faster (3-d) and a slower (20-d) simple moving averages (SMA), (2) the moving average converge/divergence (MACD), and (3) the divergence in the direction of the number of new daily cases trend and the corresponding MACD histogram.
We found that the use of both fast/slow SMAs and MACD provided a reliable signal of trend inversion of SARS-Cov-2 spread. Results were consistent for all the 3 countries considered. The trend reversals signaled by the indicators were always followed by a sustained trend persistence until a new signal of reversal appeared.
TA indicators tested here proved to be reliable tools to identify in the short mid-term a subsequent change of direction of viral spread trend either downward, upward, or sideward.
The Fontan Outcomes Network was created to improve outcomes for children and adults with single ventricle CHD living with Fontan circulation. The network mission is to optimise longevity and quality of life by improving physical health, neurodevelopmental outcomes, resilience, and emotional health for these individuals and their families. This manuscript describes the systematic design of this new learning health network, including the initial steps in development of a national, lifespan registry, and pilot testing of data collection forms at 10 congenital heart centres.