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We evaluated the relationship between food availability, as the only dietary exposure data available across Africa, and age-standardised cancer incidence rates (ASR) in eighteen countries.
Availability of food groups and dietary energy was considered for five hypothetical time points: years of collection of ASR (T0) and 5, 10, 15 and 20 preceding years (T–5, T–10, T–15, T–20). Ecological correlations adjusted for human development index, smoking and obesity rates were calculated to evaluate the relationship between food availability and ASR of breast, prostate, colorectal, oesophageal, pancreatic, stomach and thyroid cancer.
Red meat was positively correlated with pancreatic cancer in men (T–20: r–20 = 0·61, P < 0·05), stomach cancer in women (T0: r0 = 0·58, P < 0·05), and colorectal cancer in men (T0: r0 = 0·53, P < 0·05) and women (T–20: r–20 = 0·58, P < 0·05). Animal products including meat, animal fats and higher animal-sourced energy supply tended to be positively correlated with breast, colorectal, pancreatic, stomach and thyroid cancer. Alcoholic beverages were positively correlated to oesophageal cancer in men (r0 = 0·69, P < 0·001) and women (r–20 = 0·72, P < 0·001).
The present analysis provides initial insights into the impact of alcoholic beverages, and increasing use of animal over plant products, on the incidence of specific cancers in Africa. The findings support the need for epidemiological studies to investigate the role of diet in cancer development in Africa.
Intake in sugar-rich diets can be limited either via rumen fill or excessive rumen fermentation and source of non-fibre carbohydrate (NFC) in the diet can affect both factors. The aim of the current study was to quantify the effect of partially replacing ground maize (GM) with steam-rolled maize (SRM) or pelleted citrus pulp (PCP) at two concentrate levels in sugarcane-based diets on digestibility, rumen ecosystem and metabolism of Nellore steers. Six rumen-cannulated steers were assigned to a 6 × 6 Latin square, replicated in time, in a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement of treatments with two levels of concentrate (600 or 800 g concentrate/kg dry matter [DM]) and three NFC sources. Each steer within a period was considered an experimental unit. Feeding more concentrate increased total tract digestibility of organic matter and decreased fibre intake and passage rate. It also reduced rumen populations of Fibrobacter succinogenes and Streptococcus bovis and increased Ruminococcus flavefaciens. Substituting PCP for GM increased rumen pH, acetic acid and organic matter digestibility. Feeding PCP also reduced R. flavefaciens and R. amylophilus rumen populations. Substituting SRM for GM increased starch digestibility and rumen propionic acid, but decreased rumen ammonia concentration. Feeding SRM increased rumen populations of Megasphaera elsdenii with the high-concentrate diet but reduced Ruminococcus albus populations at both concentrate levels. In conclusion, partial replacement of GM by PCP decreased intake in sugar-rich diets, while increasing total tract neutral detergent fibre digestibility. Replacement of GM with SRM increases rumen fermentation and total tract digestibility of starch.
Replacing ground maize (GM) with steam-rolled maize typically increases feed efficiency in maize-silage-based diets. However, little is known about optimal carbohydrate supplementation in sugarcane silage-based diets. The objective was to quantify the effect of partially replacing GM with steam-rolled maize (SRM) or pelleted citrus pulp (PCP) at two concentrate levels (600 or 800 g/kg DM) in sugarcane-based diets on feeding behaviour, performance and blood parameters of finishing Nellore bulls. One hundred and eight young bulls were allocated to 36 pens in a randomized block design and fed for 84 d. Feeding 800 g/kg concentrate decreased time spending eating and ruminating, but improved G:F ratio, hot carcass weight and carcass dressing, compared to 600 g/kg concentrate. Bulls fed SRM and PCP diets with 600 g/kg concentrate had lower intake compared to GM. Both final weight and average daily gain decreased when bulls were fed PCP and SRM with 600 g/kg concentrate compared to GM diets, and when fed with PCP and 800 g/kg concentrate. Substituting PCP for GM decreased gain efficiency, carcass weight, rumination time and intake efficiency, indicating that the bulls consumed less feed per hour spent eating. Substituting SRM for GM increased backfat thickness and blood urea concentration. In conclusion, the replacement of GM with PCP reduces intake and enhances selection against large particles, decreasing rumination, performance and final carcass weight and dressing. Replacement of GM with SRM increases blood urea and fat deposition, with no impact on performance.
Keel bone damage (KBD) in laying hens is an important welfare problem in both conventional and organic egg production systems. We aimed to identify possible risk factors for KBD in organic hens by analysing cross-sectional data of 107 flocks assessed in eight European countries. Due to partly missing data, the final multiple regression model was based on data from 50 flocks. Keel bone damage included fractures and/or deviations, and was recorded, alongside with other animal based measures, by palpation and visual inspection of at least 50 randomly collected hens per flock between 52 and 73 weeks of age. Management and housing data were obtained by interviews, inspection and by feed analysis. Keel bone damage flock prevalences ranged from 3% to 88%. Compiled on the basis of literature and practical experience, 26 potential associative factors of KBD went into an univariable selection by Spearman correlation analysis or Mann–Whitney U test (with P<0.1 level). The resulting nine factors were presented to stepwise forward linear regression modelling. Aviary v. floor systems, absence of natural daylight in the hen house, a higher proportion of underweight birds, as well as a higher laying performance were found to be significantly associated with a higher percentage of hens with KBD. The final model explained 32% of the variation in KBD between farms. The moderate explanatory value of the model underlines the multifactorial nature of KBD. Based on the results increased attention should be paid to an adequate housing design and lighting that allows the birds easy orientation and safe manoeuvring in the system. Furthermore, feeding management should aim at sufficient bird live weights that fulfil breeder weight standards. In order to achieve a better understanding of the relationships between laying performance, feed management and KBD further investigations are needed.
The crystal structure of tlapallite has been determined using single-crystal X-ray diffraction and supported by electron probe micro-analysis, powder diffraction and Raman spectroscopy. Tlapallite is trigonal, space group P321, with a = 9.1219(17) Å, c = 11.9320(9) Å and V = 859.8(3) Å3, and was refined to R1 = 0.0296 for 786 reflections with I > 2σ(I). This study resulted from the discovery of well-crystallised tlapallite at the Wildcat prospect, Utah, USA. The chemical formula of tlapallite has been revised to (Ca,Pb)3CaCu6[Te4+3Te6+O12]2(Te4+O3)2(SO4)2·3H2O, or more simply (Ca,Pb)3CaCu6Te4+8Te6+2O30(SO4)2·3H2O, from H6(Ca,Pb)2(Cu,Zn)3(TeO3)4(TeO6)(SO4). The tlapallite structure consists of layers containing distorted Cu2+O6 octahedra, Te6+O6 octahedra and Te4+O4 disphenoids (which together form the new mixed-valence phyllotellurate anion [Te4+3Te6+O12]12−), Te4+O3 trigonal pyramids and CaO8 polyhedra. SO4 tetrahedra, Ca(H2O)3O6 polyhedra and H2O groups fill the space between the layers. Tlapallite is only the second naturally occurring compound containing tellurium in both the 4+ and 6+ oxidation states with a known crystal structure, the other being carlfriesite, CaTe4+2Te6+O8. Carlfriesite is the predominant secondary tellurium mineral at the Wildcat prospect. We also present an updated structure for carlfriesite, which has been refined to R1 = 0.0230 for 874 reflections with I > 2σ(I). This updated structural refinement improves upon the one reported previously by refining all atoms anisotropically and presenting models of bond valence and Te4+ secondary bonding.
Measles is a target for elimination in all six WHO regions by 2020, and over the last decade, there has been considerable progress towards this goal. Surveillance is recognised as a cornerstone of elimination programmes, allowing early identification of outbreaks, thus enabling control and preventing re-emergence. Fever–rash surveillance is increasingly available across WHO regions, and this symptom-based reporting is broadly used for measles surveillance. However, as measles control increases, symptom-based cases are increasingly likely to reflect infection with other diseases with similar symptoms such as rubella, which affects the same populations, and can have a similar seasonality. The WHO recommends that cases from suspected measles outbreaks be laboratory-confirmed, to identify ‘true’ cases, corresponding to measles IgM titres exceeding a threshold indicative of infection. Although serological testing for IgM has been integrated into the fever–rash surveillance systems in many countries, the logistics of sending in every suspected case are often beyond the health system's capacity. We show how age data from serologically confirmed cases can be leveraged to infer the status of non-tested samples, thus strengthening the information we can extract from symptom-based surveillance. Applying an age-specific confirmation model to data from three countries with divergent epidemiology across Africa, we identify the proportion of cases that need to be serologically tested to achieve target levels of accuracy in estimated infected numbers and discuss how this varies depending on the epidemiological context. Our analysis provides an approach to refining estimates of incidence leveraging all available data, which has the potential to improve allocation of resources, and thus contribute to rapid and efficient control of outbreaks.
Introduction: Delays in transfer to an in-patient bed of admitted patients boarded in the ED has been identified as one of the chief drivers of ED overcrowding. Our study aims to replicate findings from a previous study in identifying patient characteristics associated with increased boarding time, and the impact of increased boarding time on in-patient length of stay (IPLOS). Methods: We conducted a retrospective single-centre observational study during the period between January 1, 2015 December 31, 2015 at a very high volume community hospital (~ 75,000 ED visits/year). All patients admitted from the ED to Medicine, Pediatrics, Surgery, and Critical Care were identified. The mean time to in-patient bed (TTB), as well as patient-specific and institutional factors that were associated with prolonged boarding times ( 12 hours) were identified. Mean IP LOS was calculated for those with prolonged boarding times and compared to those without prolonged boarding times. Results: There were 8,096 unique admissions during the study period. Patients admitted to the Medicine service exhibited significantly higher boarding times than those admitted to other services, with a mean boarding time of 17.4 hrs, as compared to 4.2 hrs, 5.7 hrs, and 4.0 hrs for those admitted to Surgery, Critical Care and Pediatrics respectively. Within Medicine patients, there was a statistically significant greater odds of prolonged boarding time for patients who were older, had a greater comorbidity burden, and required more specialized in-patient care (i.e. an isolation bed or telemetry bed). Medicine patients with prolonged boarding times also experienced 0.7 days longer IP LOS, even after correcting for age and comorbidity (mean adjusted IP LOS 10.6 days versus 11.3 days). Conclusion: Within our study period, older, sicker patients and those patients requiring more resource-intensive in-patient care have the longest ED boarding times. These prolonged ‘boarding’ times are associated with significantly increased IP LOS.
L. J. Spilker, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena, California, USA,
C. Ferrari, Université Paris-Diderot Paris, FRANCE,
N. Altobelli, European Space Agency Madrid, SPAIN,
S. Pilorz, SETI Institute Mountain View, California, USA,
R. Morishima, University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, California, USA
Our view of planetary ring particles and the characteristics of their thermal emission has undergone a major paradigm shift since the arrival of Cassini at Saturn. Our understanding of the microstructure and microphysics of the rings has evolved from rings randomly filled with individual particles to Saturn's A and B rings containing particles that tend to clump into transient structures of characteristic sizes and orientations. The dynamics and evolution of rings strongly depend on the outcome of interparticle collisions and on the self-gravity of the rings. Energy loss, mass transfer, and sticking probability for relevant impact velocities will favor either aggregation or disruption and erosion of particles, modifying the size distribution and velocity dispersion, and thus the dynamics and structure of the rings.
The thermal response of a ring is determined by absorbed and emitted radiation or conducted heat within the particles. The radiation source functions depend upon the ring structure. Energy sources include direct, reflected and scattered solar light, mutual heating by neighboring ring particles, and thermal and visible radiation from Saturn. Because of mutual shading and heating between particles, the thermal emission is determined not only by the physical properties of the ring particles, but also by the structural and dynamical properties of the ring disk itself. Friction in mutual dissipative collisions between particles, due to their irregular surfaces, transforms orbital kinetic energy into spin. The particle surface temperature and its thermal emission are expected to vary on the surface along the rotation axis and azimuthally. Ring particles, as they collide into one another, are tumbling around the ring mid-plane with a vertical excursion governed by the local ring dynamics. The thermal history of a particle along its orbit is then an indicator of vertical dynamics. The particle is conditioned by the time it spends in sunlight and in the planetary shadow. At the exit of the shadow, its ability to warm up is a function of the thermal inertia. Any difference in the heating curves between the lit and unlit sides should reveal the time each particle spends on each side.
Measles eradication efforts have been successful at achieving elimination in many countries worldwide. Such countries actively work to maintain this elimination by continuing to improve coverage of two routine doses of measles vaccine following measles elimination. While improving measles vaccine coverage is always beneficial, we show, using a steady-state analysis of a dynamical model, that the correlation between populations receiving the first and second routine dose also has a significant impact on the population immunity achieved by a specified combination of first and second dose coverage. If the second dose is administered to people independently of whether they had the first dose, high second-dose coverage improves the proportion of the population receiving at least one dose, and will have a large effect on population immunity. If the second dose is administered only to people who have had the first dose, high second-dose coverage reduces the rate of primary vaccine failure, but does not reach people who missed the first dose; this will therefore have a relatively small effect on population immunity. When doses are administered dependently, and assuming the first dose has higher coverage, increasing the coverage of the first dose has a larger impact on population immunity than does increasing the coverage of the second. Correlation between vaccine doses has a significant impact on the level of population immunity maintained by current vaccination coverage, potentially outweighing the effects of age structure and, in some cases, recent improvements in vaccine coverage. It is therefore important to understand the correlation between vaccine doses as such correlation may have a large impact on the effectiveness of measles vaccination strategies.
Empirical studies are incompatible with the proposal that neonatal imitation is arousal driven or declining with age. Nonhuman primate studies reveal a functioning brain mirror system from birth, developmental continuity in imitation and later sociability, and the malleability of neonatal imitation, shaped by the early environment. A narrow focus on arousal effects and reflexes may grossly underestimate neonatal capacities.
Rubella virus infection typically presents as a mild illness in children; however, infection during pregnancy may cause the birth of an infant with congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). As of February 2017, India began introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into the public-sector childhood vaccination programme. Low-level RCV coverage among children over several years can result in an increase in CRS incidence by increasing the average age of infection without sufficiently reducing rubella incidence. We evaluated the impact of RCV introduction on CRS incidence across India's heterogeneous demographic and epidemiological contexts. We used a deterministic age-structured model that reflects Indian states’ rural and urban area-specific demography and vaccination coverage levels to simulate rubella dynamics and estimate CRS incidence with and without RCV introduction to the public sector. Our analysis suggests that current low-level private-sector vaccination has already slightly increased the burden of CRS in India. We additionally found that the effect of public-sector RCV introduction depends on the basic reproductive number, R0, of rubella. If R0 is five, a value empirically estimated from an array of settings, CRS incidence post-RCV introduction will likely decrease. However, if R0 is seven or nine, some states may experience short-term or annual increases in CRS, even if a long-term total reduction in cases (30 years) is expected. Investment in population-based serological surveys and India's fever/rash surveillance system will be key to monitoring the success of the vaccination programme.
Exercise during pregnancy has beneficial effects on maternal and offspring’s health in humans and mice. The underlying mechanisms remain unclear. This comparative study aimed to determine the long-term effects of an exercise program on metabolism, weight gain, body composition and changes in hormones [insulin, leptin, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF)]. Pregnant women (n=34) and mouse dams (n=44) were subjected to an exercise program compared with matched controls (period I). Follow-up in the offspring was performed over 6 months in humans, corresponding to postnatal day (P) 21 in mice (period II). Half of the mouse offspring was challenged with a high-fat diet (HFD) for 6 weeks between P70 and P112 (period III). In period I, exercise during pregnancy led to 6% lower fat content, 40% lower leptin levels and an increase of 50% BDNF levels in humans compared with controls, which was not observed in mice. After period II in humans and mice, offspring body weight did not differ from that of the controls. Further differences were observed in period III. Offspring of exercising mouse dams had significantly lower fat mass and leptin levels compared with controls. In addition, at P112, BDNF levels in offspring were significantly higher from exercising mothers while this effect was completely blunted by HFD feeding. In this study, we found comparable effects on maternal and offspring’s weight gain in humans and mice but different effects in insulin, leptin and BDNF. The long-term potential protective effects of exercise on biomarkers should be examined in human studies.
GM24 is a small visible nebulosity in the vicinity of a molecular cloud. In this contribution we present the results of continuum (6-cm) and CO line (J = 1 → 0) radio observations, infrared maps, broad-band photometry and low-resolution spectroscopy as well as long-slit Echelle Ha spectroscopy. We found evidence that the GM24 = PP85 nebula is part of a larger region where star formation occurred in the past 104 years; the region is embedded in a typical molecular cloud with a dimension of ∼ 10 pc and mass of ∼104 M⊙. A compact radio H II region seems to be associated with GM24 and with one of the mid-infrared peaks detected. The nebula is most probably the visible part of an embedded H II region that is starting to emerge from the cloud. The other infrared peaks found in its vicinity (∼ 1 pc) are probably associated with less evolved stellar objects. The complex also shows an extended near-infrared flux which we believe to arise in a reflection nebula. From energy arguments, we found that the luminosity required to power the H II region and keep the cloud at the observed large temperature (TK ≅33 K), is ∼105 L⊙ which is consistent with the infrared total flux from the present measurements and those from IRAS of 4x104 L⊙; this corresponds to the flux of ∼3 BO ZAMS stars. The details of the present work have appeared in the Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica, Volume 11, 83, 1985.
To investigate dietary sources of Ca and vitamin D (VitD) intakes, and the associated sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, among European adolescents.
Linear regression mixed models were used to examine sex-specific associations of Ca and VitD intakes with parental education, family affluence (FAS), physical activity and television (TV) watching while controlling for age, Tanner stage, energy intake and diet quality.
The Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence (HELENA)Cross-Sectional Study.
Adolescents aged 12·5–17·5 years (n 1804).
Milk and cheese were the main sources of Ca (23 and 19 % contribution to overall Ca intake, respectively). Fish products were the main VitD source (30 % contribution to overall VitD intake). Ca intake was positively associated with maternal education (β=56·41; 95 % CI 1·98, 110·82) and negatively associated with TV viewing in boys (β=–0·43; 95 % CI −0·79, −0·07); however, the significance of these associations disappeared when adjusting for diet quality. In girls, Ca intake was positively associated with mother’s (β=73·08; 95 % CI 34·41, 111·74) and father’s education (β=43·29; 95 % CI 5·44, 81·14) and FAS (β=37·45; 95 % CI 2·25, 72·65). This association between Ca intake and mother’s education remained significant after further adjustment for diet quality (β=41·66; 95 % CI 0·94, 82·38). Girls with high-educated mothers had higher Ca intake.
Low-educated families with poor diet quality may be targeted when strategizing health promotion programmes to enhance dietary Ca.
This study aimed to examine the association between vitamin B6, folate and vitamin B12 biomarkers and plasma fatty acids in European adolescents. A subsample from the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence study with valid data on B-vitamins and fatty acid blood parameters, and all the other covariates used in the analyses such as BMI, Diet Quality Index, education of the mother and physical activity assessed by a questionnaire, was selected resulting in 674 cases (43 % males). B-vitamin biomarkers were measured by chromatography and immunoassay and fatty acids by enzymatic analyses. Linear mixed models elucidated the association between B-vitamins and fatty acid blood parameters (changes in fatty acid profiles according to change in 10 units of vitamin B biomarkers). DHA, EPA) and n-3 fatty acids showed positive associations with B-vitamin biomarkers, mainly with those corresponding to folate and vitamin B12. Contrarily, negative associations were found with n-6:n-3 ratio, trans-fatty acids and oleic:stearic ratio. With total homocysteine (tHcy), all the associations found with these parameters were opposite (for instance, an increase of 10 nmol/l in red blood cell folate or holotranscobalamin in females produces an increase of 15·85 µmol/l of EPA (P value <0·01), whereas an increase of 10 nmol/l of tHcy in males produces a decrease of 2·06 µmol/l of DHA (P value <0·05). Positive associations between B-vitamins and specific fatty acids might suggest underlying mechanisms between B-vitamins and CVD and it is worth the attention of public health policies.
Measles was eliminated in the Americas in 2002 by a combination of routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities. Recent outbreaks underscore the importance of reconsidering vaccine policy in order to maintain elimination. We constructed an age-structured dynamical model for the distribution of immunity in a population with routine immunization and without disease, and analysed the steady state for an idealized age structure and for real age structures of countries in the Americas. We compared the level of immunity maintained by current policy in these countries to the level maintainable by an optimal policy. The optimal age target for the first routine dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of both doses. Similarly, the optimal age target for the second dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of the first dose. The age targets for the first and second doses of measles vaccine should be adjusted for the post-elimination era, by specifically accounting for current context, including realized coverage of both doses, and altered maternal immunity. Doing so can greatly improve the proportion immune within a population, and therefore the chances of maintaining measles elimination, without changing coverage.
Measles elimination goals have been adopted in a range of countries, sub-regions, and regions since the WHO declared an elimination goal by 2015 or 2020. All countries attempt to achieve and maintain high coverage through routine immunization programmes. This routine strategy, however, does not ensure the elimination goal of measles. Many developed countries, such as the United States, that have succeeded in interrupting measles transmission earlier, are now experiencing outbreaks with an increasing number of cases. Using a stochastic, age-structured model of measles vaccination dynamics, we explore and characterize the transient dynamics of measles susceptibility in the years following the implementation of routine vaccination at the herd immunity threshold. We demonstrate how a population could face risks of potentially large outbreaks even within few years of vaccination. We characterize different risk profiles depending on the incidence pattern in the years prior to vaccination. These results suggest that the classic critical vaccination threshold is necessary to achieve herd immunity, but not sufficient to prevent long periods of transient, super-critical dynamics. Our results suggest the need of future work for more careful monitoring of the impacts of current immunization programmes, and developing models that take into account more complicated vaccination strategies, demographic factors, and population movements.
School-based psychological interventions encompass: universal interventions targeting youth in the general population; and indicated interventions targeting youth with subthreshold depression. This study aimed to: (1) examine the population cost-effectiveness of delivering universal and indicated prevention interventions to youth in the population aged 11–17 years via primary and secondary schools in Australia; and (2) compare the comparative cost-effectiveness of delivering these interventions using face-to-face and internet-based delivery mechanisms.
We reviewed literature on the prevention of depression to identify all interventions targeting youth that would be suitable for implementation in Australia and had evidence of efficacy to support analysis. From this, we found evidence of effectiveness for the following intervention types: universal prevention involving group-based psychological interventions delivered to all participating school students; and indicated prevention involving group-based psychological interventions delivered to students with subthreshold depression. We constructed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of delivering universal and indicated interventions in the population relative to a ‘no intervention’ comparator over a 10-year time horizon. A disease model was used to simulate epidemiological transitions between three health states (i.e., healthy, diseased and dead). Intervention effect sizes were based on meta-analyses of randomised control trial data identified in the aforementioned review; while health benefits were measured as Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted attributable to reductions in depression incidence. Net costs of delivering interventions were calculated using relevant Australian data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured in 2013 Australian dollars per DALY averted; with costs and benefits discounted at 3%.
Universal and indicated psychological interventions delivered through face-to-face modalities had ICERs below a threshold of $50 000 per DALY averted. That is, $7350 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): dominates – 23 070) for universal prevention, and $19 550 per DALY averted (95% UI: 3081–56 713) for indicated prevention. Baseline ICERs were generally robust to changes in model assumptions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis which found that internet-delivered prevention interventions were highly cost-effective when assuming intervention effect sizes of 100 and 50% relative to effect sizes observed for face-to-face delivered interventions. These results should, however, be interpreted with caution due to the paucity of data.
School-based psychological interventions appear to be cost-effective. However, realising efficiency gains in the population is ultimately dependent on ensuring successful system-level implementation.
Despite significant research examining mental health in conflict-affected populations we do not yet have a comprehensive epidemiological model of how mental disorders are distributed, or which factors influence the epidemiology in these populations. We aim to derive prevalence estimates specific for region, age and sex of major depression, and PTSD in the general populations of areas exposed to conflict, whilst controlling for an extensive range of covariates.
A systematic review was conducted to identify epidemiological estimates of depression and PTSD in conflict-affected populations and potential predictors. We analyse data using Bayesian meta-regression techniques.
We identified 83 studies and a list of 34 potential predictors. The age-standardised pooled prevalence of PTSD was 12.9% (95% UI 6.9–22.9), and major depression 7.6% (95% UI 5.1–10.9) – markedly lower than estimated in previous research but over two-times higher than the mean prevalence estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study [3.7% (95% UI 3.0–4.5) and 3.5% (95% UI 2.9–4.2) for anxiety disorders and MDD, respectively]. The age-patterns reveal sharp prevalence inclines in the childhood years. A number of ecological variables demonstrated associations with prevalence of both disorders. Symptom scales were shown to significantly overestimate prevalence of both disorders. Finding suggests higher prevalence of both disorders in females.
This study provides, for the first time, age-specific estimates of PTSD and depression prevalence adjusted for an extensive range of covariates and is a significant advancement on our current understanding of the epidemiology in conflict-affected populations.