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The polls of the 2018 Quebec election forecast a close race between the two leading parties. The result, a clear victory of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) over the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), was clearly at odds with the polls. We argue that when the polls get it wrong, it is important to determine whether there was a polling miss, in which the discrepancy is due to changing voter behaviour, or a poll failure, in which the problem stems from polling methodology. Our post-election poll shows that changing voter behaviour—last-minute shifts and the vote of non-disclosers—explains most of the discrepancy. These movements varied by region. We conclude that the Quebec 2018 election was among the worst polling misses in history but not necessarily a major poll failure.
Currently, consumers are increasingly interested in obtaining high-quality and healthy lamb meat. Compared to grain-based diets, dietary forage legumes such as alfalfa and condensed tannin (CT)-rich sainfoin increase the levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that are beneficial for health in lamb meat thanks to their high content in PUFA and/or their impact on ruminal biohydrogenation. However, they can therefore adversely affect its oxidative stability. Thus, the impact of dietary forage legumes on lamb longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle FA composition and their stability to peroxidation was studied in 36 Romane lambs grazing alfalfa (AF; n = 12) or alfalfa plus daily supplementation with CT-rich sainfoin pellets (AS; n = 12; 15 g DM/kg BW, 42 g CT/kg DM) or stall-fed concentrate and grass hay indoors (SI; n = 12). Lambs were slaughtered at a mean age of 162 ± 8.0 days after an average experimental period of 101 ± 8.1 days. Forage legumes-grazing lambs outperformed SI lambs in LT nutritional quality, with more conjugated linoleic acids and n-3 PUFAs, especially 18:3n-3, eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids (P < 0.001), and thus lower n-6 PUFA/n-3 PUFA and 18:2 n-6/18:3 n-3 ratios (P < 0.001). Peroxidizability index was higher (P < 0.001) in LT muscle of forage legumes-grazing lambs. Concurrently, two endogenous antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase, were, respectively, similar and lower (P < 0.001) for forage legumes-grazing compared with SI lambs. A lower vitamin E level in SI lambs compared with forage legumes-grazing lambs (1.0 v. 3.8 mg/g, P < 0.001) could explain that malondialdehyde content, a marker of lipid oxidation intensity, was 0.63 µg/g in SI after 8 days in aerobic packaging conditions, whereas it remaining steady at 0.16 µg/g in forage legumes-grazing lambs. Dietary forage alfalfa thus improved FA composition of lamb LT muscle and their stability to oxidation when compared to SI lambs. However, supplementation of alfalfa-grazing lambs with CT-rich sainfoin pellets did not affect the nutritional quality of LT muscle FAs.
We examined the quality of care provided to older persons with frailty in five Canadian provinces, using administrative health data. In each province, we identified two cohorts of older persons with frailty: decedents and living persons. Using decision rules, we considered individuals to be frail if they were long-term care residents, terminally ill, or met at least two of seven domains, which were based on frailty scales, geriatrician discussions, and health service utilization indicators. We assessed quality of care using selected quality indicators: decrease in length of hospital stay, decrease in the number of in-patient readmissions, decrease in the number of emergency department visits, increase in the level of family physician continuity of care, decrease in the use of mechanical ventilation, and decrease in the number of admissions to intensive care. Using regression analyses, we also found male sex and older age were associated with poorer quality of care in both cohorts. This study provides baseline data for evaluating future efforts to improve the quality of care provided to older persons with frailty.
High-starch diets (HSDs) fed to high-producing ruminants are often responsible for rumen dysfunction and could impair animal health and production. Feeding HSDs are often characterized by transient rumen pH depression, accurate monitoring of which requires costly or invasive methods. Numerous clinical signs can be followed to monitor such diet changes but no specific indicator is able to make a statement at animal level on-farm. The aim of this pilot study was to assess a combination of non-invasive indicators in dairy cows able to monitor a HSD in experimental conditions. A longitudinal study was conducted in 11 primiparous dairy cows fed with two different diets during three successive periods: a 4-week control period (P1) with a low-starch diet (LSD; 13% starch), a 4-week period with an HSD (P2, 35% starch) and a 3-week recovery period (P3) again with the LSD. Animal behaviour was monitored throughout the experiment, and faeces, urine, saliva, milk and blood were sampled simultaneously in each animal at least once a week for analysis. A total of 136 variables were screened by successive statistical approaches including: partial least squares-discriminant analysis, multivariate analysis and mixed-effect models. Finally, 16 indicators were selected as the most representative of a HSD challenge. A generalized linear mixed model analysis was applied to highlight parsimonious combinations of indicators able to identify animals under our experimental conditions. Eighteen models were established and the combination of milk urea nitrogen, blood bicarbonate and feed intake was the best to detect the different periods of the challenge with both 100% of specificity and sensitivity. Other indicators such as the number of drinking acts, fat:protein ratio in milk, urine, and faecal pH, were the most frequently used in the proposed models. Finally, the established models highlight the necessity for animals to have more than 1 week of recovery diet to return to their initial control state after a HSD challenge. This pilot study demonstrates the interest of using combinations of non-invasive indicators to monitor feed changes from a LSD to a HSD to dairy cows in order to improve prevention of rumen dysfunction on-farm. However, the adjustment and robustness of the proposed combinations of indicators need to be challenged using a greater number of animals as well as different acidogenic conditions before being applied on-farm.
Castration of male ruminants is a common livestock management practice, but induces pain. However, little is known about the effectiveness of multimodal analgesia compared to local anesthesia (LA) alone in reducing pain associated with burdizzo castration in sheep. This study aimed to monitor the pain response induced by castration in sheep and to assess the efficacy of analgesia strategies. Twenty-four 12-month-old male Texel sheep were burdizzo-castrated after administration of physiological serum (Burd), local anesthetic (Burd+LA) or LA plus non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (Burd+LA+NSAID). Sheep responses were monitored using behavioral and physiological indices of pain. Sampling occurred from 24 h pre-castration to 78 h post-castration, split into four periods based on the duration of analgesia: P0 (T-24 to T-1 h), P1 (T0 to T+2 h), P2 (T+3 to T+32 h) and P3 (T+36 to T+78 h). Behavioral indices were attention and head position, ear position, position of the eyelid, other facial expression, standing/lying postures, postures of the legs, clinical signs and abnormal activities. Physiological indices consisted in indicators of inflammation (haptoglobin, serum amyloid A (SAA), body temperature), hypothalamo–pituitary–adrenal axis (cortisol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose), autonomous nervous system (heart rate variability (HRV)) and oxidative stress. The variables contributing most to discrimination of the period×treatment groups were analyzed by factorial discrimination analysis. Pre-castration (P0), there was no significant difference between treatments for all indicators (P > 0.05). Post-castration, eight indicators varied significantly according to period and treatment: cortisol, clinical signs, ratio of low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) bands of the HRV, attention and head position, SAA, haptoglobin, body temperature and glucose. The treatment×periods groups were well discriminated by the 23 indicators. Burd in P0, Burd+LA in P0 and Burd+LA+NSAID in P0, P1 and P2 had low values for all indicators, likely reflecting absence of pain and discomfort. Burd in P1 and P2 and Burd+LA in P2 showed clinical signs and reduced attention, high LF/HF and high cortisol levels, reflecting acute pain. Burd and Burd+LA in P3 had high temperature, high haptoglobin, high glucose and high SAA, but no response from other pathways. These results suggest that (i) behavioral signs of pain were apparent up to 32 h post-castration, (ii) LA was partially effective, but only during its time of action (2 h) and (iii). multimodal analgesia (LA and NSAID) was effective for up to 3 days post-castration. These findings, and especially those related to sheep behavior, can help veterinarians and farmers better detect pain and refine their pain alleviation methods.
The eastern larch beetle (Dendroctonus simplex Le Conte) is recognized as a serious destructive forest pest in the upper part of North America. Under epidemic conditions, this beetle can attack healthy trees, causing severe damages to larch stands. Dendroctonus species are considered as holobionts, as they engage in multipartite interactions with microorganisms, such as bacteria, filamentous fungi, and yeasts, which are implicated in physiological processes of the insect, such as nutrition. They also play a key role in the beetle's attack, as they are responsible for the detoxification of the subcortical environment and weaken the tree's defense mechanisms. The eastern larch beetle is associated with bacteria and fungi, but their implication in the success of the beetle remains unknown. Here, we investigated the bacterial and fungal microbiota of this beetle pest throughout its ontogeny (pioneer adults, larvae and pupae) by high-throughput sequencing. A successional microbial assemblage was identified throughout the beetle developmental stages, reflecting the beetle's requirements. These results indicate that a symbiotic association between the eastern larch beetle and some of these microorganisms takes place and that this D. simplex symbiotic complex is helping the insect to colonize its host tree and survive the conditions encountered.
Distributed models and a good knowledge of the catchment studied are required to assess mitigation measures for nitrogen (N) pollution. A set of alternative scenarios (change of crop management practices and different strategies of landscape management, especially different sizes and distribution of set-aside areas) were simulated with a fully distributed model in a small agricultural catchment. The results show that current practices are close to complying with current regulations, which results in a limited effect of the implementation of best crop management practices. The location of set-aside zones is more important than their size in decreasing nitrate fluxes in stream water. The most efficient location is the lower parts of hillslopes, combining the dilution effect due to the decrease of N input per unit of land and the interception of nitrate transferred by sub-surface flows. The main process responsible for the interception effect is probably uptake by grassland and retention in soils since the denitrification load tends to decrease proportionally to N input and, for the scenarios considered, is lower in the interception scenarios than in the corresponding dilution zones.
The Neolithic transition is a particularly favorable field of research for the study of the emergence and evolution of cultures and cultural phenomena. In this framework, high-precision chronologies are essential for decrypting the rhythms of emergence of new techno-economic traits. As part of a project exploring the conditions underlying the emergence and dynamics of the development of the first agro-pastoral societies in the Western Mediterranean, this paper proposes a new chronological modeling. Based on 45 new radiocarbon (14C) dates and on a Bayesian statistical framework, this work examines the rhythms and dispersal paths of the Neolithic economy both on coastal and continental areas. These new data highlight a complex and far less unidirectional dissemination process than that envisaged so far.
Multi-analyte assays with algorithmic analyses (MAAAs) use combinations of circulating and clinical markers including omics-based sources for diagnostic and/or prognostic purposes. Assessing MAAAs is challenging under existing health technology assessment (HTA) methods or practices. We undertook a scoping review to explore the HTA methods used for MAAAs to identify the criteria used for clinical research and reimbursement purposes.
This review included only non-companion (stand-alone) tests that are actionable and that have been evaluated by leading HTA or insurer/reimbursement bodies up to September 2017.
Twenty-five reports and articles evaluating seventeen MAAAs were examined, most of which have been developed in oncology. The two main models used were the EUnetHTA Core model and the Evaluation of Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention ACCE framework. Clinical validity and utility criteria were used, as were economic, ethical, legal, and social aspects. Economic evidence on MAAAs was scarce, and there is no consensus on whether the perspectives used are sufficiently broad to include all relevant stakeholders.
Clinical utility and efficiency were the most used criteria, with stronger evidence needed linking the use of the algorithm with the clinical outcomes in real-life practice. HTA bodies must as well consider questions related to the analytical validity of MAAAs or with organizational aspects. The two main models, the EUnetHTA Core model and the ACCE framework, could be adapted to the assessment of MAAAs.
We assessed clinicians’ continuing professional development (CPD) needs at family practice teaching clinics in the province of Quebec. Our mixed methodology design comprised an environmental scan of training programs at four family medicine departments, an expert panel to determine priority clinical situations for senior care, a supervisors survey to assess their perceived CPD needs, and interviews to help understand the rationale behind their needs. From the environmental scan, the expert panel selected 13 priority situations. Key needs expressed by the 352 survey respondents (36% response rate) included behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia, polypharmacy, depression, and cognitive disorders. Supervisors explained that these situations were sometimes complex to diagnose and manage because of psychosocial aspects, challenges of communicating with patients and families, and coordination of interprofessional teams. Supervisors also reported more CPD needs in long-term and home care, given the presence of caregivers and complexity of senior care in these settings.
An unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus diseases (EVD) occurred in West Africa from March 2014 to January 2016. The French Institute for Public Health implemented strengthened surveillance to early identify any imported case and avoid secondary cases.
Febrile travellers returning from an affected country had to report to the national emergency healthcare hotline. Patients reporting at-risk exposures and fever during the 21st following day from the last at-risk exposure were defined as possible cases, hospitalised in isolation and tested by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Asymptomatic travellers reporting at-risk exposures were considered as contact and included in a follow-up protocol until the 21st day after the last at-risk exposure.
From March 2014 to January 2016, 1087 patients were notified: 1053 were immediately excluded because they did not match the notification criteria or did not have at-risk exposures; 34 possible cases were tested and excluded following a reliable negative result. Two confirmed cases diagnosed in West Africa were evacuated to France under stringent isolation conditions. Patients returning from Guinea (n = 531; 49%) and Mali (n = 113; 10%) accounted for the highest number of notifications.
No imported case of EVD was detected in France. We are confident that our surveillance system was able to classify patients properly during the outbreak period.
Basal slip accounts for a large part of the flow of ice streams draining ice from Antarctica and Greenland into the ocean. Therefore, an appropriate representation of basal slip in ice flow models is a prerequisite for accurate sea level rise projections. Various friction laws have been proposed to describe basal slip in models. Here, we compare the influence on grounding line (GL) dynamics of four friction laws: the traditional Weertman law and three effective pressure-dependent laws, namely the Schoof, Tsai and Budd laws. It turns out that, even when they are tuned to a common initial reference state, the Weertman, Budd and Schoof laws lead to thoroughly different steady-state positions, although the Schoof and Tsai laws lead to much the same result. In particular, under certain circumstances, it is possible to obtain a steady GL located on a reverse slope area using the Weertman law. Furthermore, the predicted transient evolution of the GL as well as the projected contributions to sea level rise over a 100-year time horizon vary significantly depending on the friction law. We conclude on the importance of choosing an appropriate law for reliable sea level rise projections and emphasise the need for a coupling between ice flow models and physically based subglacial hydrological models.
A system for predicting avalanche hazard in the windy climate of Vestfirðir, northwest Iceland, is presented. The system is based on (a) numerical simulations of the snowpack and evaluation of avalanche hazard due to overloading by the snow models SAFRAN–Crocus and MÉPRA, and (b) observations of wind speed in the mountains used as a proxy for snowdrift. The system was tested during two winter seasons and correctly predicts 30 out of 35 avalanche days. The 5 missing days feature either large spatial gradients in precipitation or very strong winds a few days before the avalanches, indicating much snowdrift. A comparison of the simulated avalanche hazard and observations of avalanches confirms that snowdrift is of primary importance not only for large avalanches, as already established, but also for small and medium-size avalanches in Vestfirðir. The system is a first step towards an objective evaluation of avalanche hazard in Iceland.