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In this paper, the authors propose a culture-centred tool called Speculative Ethnography to support the practice of design for the speculative future. Most explorations of tools and techniques of design for the speculative future focus on materialising the speculation. Instead, Speculative Ethnography provides a guideline to help designers define their speculation through the scientific imagination of the plausible future. It ensures the effectiveness of design for the speculative future and supports the interaction of culture and design for the speculative future.
Crowdfunding is the process of taking a project in need of investment and asking a large group of people to supply the investment. It allows organisations to sell their product before production, reducing the risk of new product development. Organisations such as Tesla and General Electric have used crowdfunding successfully but crowdfunding is yet to be explored as part of a formalised product development framework. This paper includes the business case for commercialising new products with crowdfunding and presents crowdfunding as part of a product development and commercialisation framework.
Conceptual design, as an early phase of the design process, is known to have the highest impact on determining the innovation level of design results. Although many tools exist to support designers in conceptual design, additional knowledge, especially knowledge related to emerging technologies, is still often needed. In this paper the authors aim to propose a data-driven creative concept generation and evaluation approach to support designers in incorporating emerging technologies in the new product early development stage. The approach is demonstrated by means of an illustrated example.
Anxiety is the most prevalent psychological disorder among youth, and even following treatment, it confers risk for anxiety relapse and the development of depression. Anxiety disorders are associated with heightened response to negative affective stimuli in the brain networks that underlie emotion processing. One factor that can attenuate the symptoms of anxiety and depression in high-risk youth is parental warmth. The current study investigates whether parental warmth helps to protect against future anxiety and depressive symptoms in adolescents with histories of anxiety and whether neural functioning in the brain regions that are implicated in emotion processing and regulation can account for this link. Following treatment for anxiety disorder (Time 1), 30 adolescents (M age = 11.58, SD = 1.26) reported on maternal warmth, and 2 years later (Time 2) they participated in a functional neuroimaging task where they listened to prerecorded criticism and neutral statements from a parent. Higher maternal warmth predicted lower neural activation during criticism, compared with the response during neutral statements, in the left amygdala, bilateral insula, subgenual anterior cingulate (sgACC), right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex. Maternal warmth was associated with adolescents’ anxiety and depressive symptoms due to the indirect effects of sgACC activation, suggesting that parenting may attenuate risk for internalizing through its effects on brain function.
Despite the frequency that refugees suffer bereavement, there is a dearth of research into the prevalence and predictors of problematic grief reactions in refugees. To address this gap, this study reports a nationally representative population-based study of refugees to determine the prevalence of probable prolonged grief disorder (PGD) and its associated problems.
This study recruited participants from the Building a New Life in Australia (BNLA) prospective cohort study of refugees admitted to Australia between October 2013 and February 2014. The current data were collected in 2015–2016, and comprised 1767 adults, as well as 411 children of the adult respondents. Adult refugees were assessed for trauma history, post-migration difficulties, probable PGD, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and mental illness. Children were administered the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire.
In this cohort, 38.1% of refugees reported bereavement, of whom 15.8% reported probable PGD; this represents 6.0% of the entire cohort. Probable PGD was associated with a greater likelihood of mental illness, probable PTSD, severe mental illness, currently unemployed and reported disability. Children of refugees with probable PGD reported more psychological difficulties than those whose parents did not have probable PGD. Probable PGD was also associated with the history of imprisonment, torture and separation from family. Only 56.3% of refugees with probable PGD had received psychological assistance.
Bereavement and probable PGD appear highly prevalent in refugees, and PGD seems to be associated with disability in the refugees and psychological problems in their children. The low rate of access to mental health assistance for these refugees highlights that there is a need to address this issue in refugee populations.
Detailed representation of ingesta inflow to and digesta outflow from the rumen is critical for improving the modelling of rumen function and herbage intake of grazing ruminants. The objective of the current work was to extend a mechanistic model of a grazing ruminant, MINDY, to simulate the dynamic links between ingestive and digestive processes as affected by forage and sward features (e.g. sward structure, herbage chemical composition) as well as the internal state of the animal. The work integrates existing aspects of forage ingestion, oral physiology and rumen digestion that influence ingesta characteristics and digesta outflows from the rumen, respectively. The paper describes the structure and function of the new development, assessing the new model in terms of dynamic changes of oral processing of ingesta and rumen dilution rate under different grazing contexts. MINDY reproduces characteristics of ingesta inflow to and digesta outflow from the rumen of grazing ruminants, achieving temporal patterns of occurrence within and between meals, similar to those for grazing animals reported in the literature. The model realistically simulates changes in particle size distribution of the ingestive bolus, bolus weight and rumen dilution rate in response to contrasting grazing management regimes. The new concepts encoded in MINDY capture the underlying biological mechanisms that drive the dynamic link between ingestion and digestion patterns. This development advances in the understanding and modelling of grazing and digestive behaviour patterns of free-ranging ruminants.
Measurement of water consumption and urinary nitrogen (UN) excretion of individual grazing ruminants is difficult, time-consuming and expensive. Therefore, prediction and modelling are critical for research to improve N and water use efficiency. The objective of the current work was to use a mechanistic model of a grazing ruminant, MINDY, to represent drinking and urination diurnal patterns, and the resulting pattern of UN excretion. This work is primarily an integration of existing knowledge of basic urination physiology and water dynamics in ruminants. MINDY reproduces observed patterns of urination achieving the correct temporal occurrence, relative volumes and nitrogen (N) concentration of individual urination events for a grazing dairy cow, comparable with those reported in the literature. The model simulates daily water imbibed and UN realistically, as well as ingestion rates for herbages with different protein content and contrasting grazing managements. Results of a cross-validation indicate that the root mean square prediction error and mean absolute error as % of the observed mean, respectively, were 26 and 23% for daily water imbibed, 26 and 27% for urination volume, and 25 and 19% for the frequency of urination. Although further parameterization and validation are needed, for a new development in an exploratory model like MINDY, these numbers are encouraging and reflect that the concepts encoded capture many of the underlying biological mechanisms that drive the diurnal pattern and daily UN excretion, as well as thirst, acceptable.
To determine the patterns and predictors of treatment response trajectories for veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Conditional latent growth mixture modelling was used to identify classes and predictors of class membership. In total, 2686 veterans treated for PTSD between 2002 and 2015 across 14 hospitals in Australia completed the PTSD Checklist at intake, discharge, and 3 and 9 months follow-up. Predictor variables included co-morbid mental health problems, relationship functioning, employment and compensation status.
Five distinct classes were found: those with the most severe PTSD at intake separated into a relatively large class (32.5%) with small change, and a small class (3%) with a large change. Those with slightly less severe PTSD separated into one class comprising 49.9% of the total sample with large change effects, and a second class comprising 7.9% with extremely large treatment effects. The final class (6.7%) with least severe PTSD at intake also showed a large treatment effect. Of the multiple predictor variables, depression and guilt were the only two found to predict differences in response trajectories.
These findings highlight the importance of assessing guilt and depression prior to treatment for PTSD, and for severe cases with co-morbid guilt and depression, considering an approach to trauma-focused therapy that specifically targets guilt and depression-related cognitions.
Prolonged separation from parental support is a risk factor for psychopathology. This study assessed the impact of brief separation from parents during childhood trauma on adult attachment tendencies and post-traumatic stress.
Children (n = 806) exposed to a major Australian bushfire disaster in 1983 and matched controls (n = 725) were assessed in the aftermath of the fires (mean age 7–8 years) via parent reports of trauma exposure and separation from parents during the fires. Participants (n = 500) were subsequently assessed 28 years after initial assessment on the Experiences in Close Relationships scale to assess attachment security, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was assessed using the PTSD checklist.
Being separated from parents was significantly related to having an avoidant attachment style as an adult (B = −3.69, s.e. = 1.48, β = −0.23, p = 0.013). Avoidant attachment was associated with re-experiencing (B = 0.03, s.e. = 0.01, β = 0.31, p = 0.045), avoidance (B = 0.03, s.e. = 0.01, β = 0.30, p = 0.001) and numbing (B = 0.03, s.e. = 0.01, β = 0.30, p < 0.001) symptoms. Anxious attachment was associated with re-experiencing (B = 0.03, s.e. = 0.01, β = 0.18, p = 0.001), numbing (B = 0.03, β = 0.30, s.e. = 0.01, p < 0.001) and arousal (B = 0.04, s.e. = 0.01, β = 0.43, p < 0.001) symptoms.
These findings demonstrate that brief separation from attachments during childhood trauma can have long-lasting effects on one's attachment security, and that this can be associated with adult post-traumatic psychopathology.
Identifying youth who may engage in future substance use could facilitate early identification of substance use disorder vulnerability. We aimed to identify biomarkers that predicted future substance use in psychiatrically un-well youth.
LASSO regression for variable selection was used to predict substance use 24.3 months after neuroimaging assessment in 73 behaviorally and emotionally dysregulated youth aged 13.9 (s.d. = 2.0) years, 30 female, from three clinical sites in the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) study. Predictor variables included neural activity during a reward task, cortical thickness, and clinical and demographic variables.
Future substance use was associated with higher left middle prefrontal cortex activity, lower left ventral anterior insula activity, thicker caudal anterior cingulate cortex, higher depression and lower mania scores, not using antipsychotic medication, more parental stress, older age. This combination of variables explained 60.4% of the variance in future substance use, and accurately classified 83.6%.
These variables explained a large proportion of the variance, were useful classifiers of future substance use, and showed the value of combining multiple domains to provide a comprehensive understanding of substance use development. This may be a step toward identifying neural measures that can identify future substance use disorder risk, and act as targets for therapeutic interventions.
Although perceived social support is thought to be a strong predictor of psychological outcomes following trauma exposure, the temporal relationship between perceived positive and negative social support and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms has not been empirically established. This study investigated the temporal sequencing of perceived positive social support, perceived negative social support, and PTSD symptoms in the 6 years following trauma exposure among survivors of traumatic injury.
Participants were 1132 trauma survivors initially assessed upon admission to one of four Level 1 trauma hospitals in Australia after experiencing a traumatic injury. Participants were followed up at 3 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 6 years after the traumatic event.
Latent difference score analyses revealed that greater severity of PTSD symptoms predicted subsequent increases in perceived negative social support at each time-point. Greater severity of PTSD symptoms predicted subsequent decreases in perceived positive social support between 3 and 12 months. High levels of perceived positive or negative social support did not predict subsequent changes in PTSD symptoms at any time-point.
Results highlight the impact of PTSD symptoms on subsequent perceived social support, regardless of the type of support provided. The finding that perceived social support does not influence subsequent PTSD symptoms is novel, and indicates that the relationship between PTSD and perceived social support may be unidirectional.
Deep inspiratory breath hold (DIBH) during left-breast irradiation helps to minimise cardiac irradiation by physically separating the heart from the left breast. The dose to organs-at-risk in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and opposed tangent three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) during DIBH in patients with left-sided breast cancer was compared.
Materials and methods
A total of 20 consecutive patients with left-sided breast cancer had a computed tomography scan utilising DIBH. Mean volumes of the heart, left anterior descending coronary artery, total lung and right breast receiving 5–95% of the prescription dose were calculated.
Target volume homogeneity was improved with IMRT and average mean dose to target was higher for 3DCRT (51·03 Gy) compared with IMRT (50·47 Gy, p<0·01). The average mean dose to the heart was lower with 3DCRT (87 versus 77 cGy, p<0·01). The average mean dose to the contralateral breast was also lower with 3DCRT (19 versus 17 cGy, p<0·01). Less monitor units (MUs) were required with 3DCRT with an average difference of 225 MU/fraction (p<0·01).
Under DIBH, absolute differences between 3DCRT and IMRT were minimal. 3DCRT under DIBH provided excellent dosimetric results in most patients with left-sided breast cancer without the need for IMRT.
This book brings together works published between 1846 and 1859 by the Scot James D. Forbes (1809–68) and Irishman John Tyndall (1820–93), both of whom were experienced alpinists as well as glaciologists. However, their views on the motion of glaciers were disparate, and a scientific quarrel over primacy and credit for discoveries continued even after their respective deaths. These papers include Forbes' articles on experiments on the flow of plastic bodies and analogies between lava and glacier flows, and on the plasticity of glacier ice, as well as Tyndall's observations on the physical phenomena of various Alpine glaciers, including the famous 'Mer de Glace', and a piece on the structure and motion of glaciers, co-written with Thomas Huxley. Several works by and about all three scientists (including works on Alpine travel) have also been reissued in this series.