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Biologists often study living systems in light of their having evolved, of their being the products of various processes of heredity, adaptation, ancestry, and so on. In their investigations, then, biologists think comparatively: they situate lineages into models of those evolutionary processes, comparing their targets with ancestral relatives and with analogous evolutionary outcomes. This element characterizes this mode of investigation - 'comparative thinking' - and puts it to work in understanding why biological science takes the shape it does. Importantly, comparative thinking is local: what we can do with knowledge of a lineage is limited by the evolutionary processes into which it fits. In light of this analysis, the Element examines the experimental study of animal cognition, and macroevolutionary investigation of the 'shape of life', demonstrating the importance of comparative thinking in understanding both the power and limitations of biological knowledge.
Volume II of The Cambridge History of War covers what in Europe is commonly called 'the Middle Ages'. It includes all of the well-known themes of European warfare, from the migrations of the Germanic peoples and the Vikings through the Reconquista, the Crusades and the age of chivalry, to the development of state-controlled gunpowder-wielding armies and the urban militias of the later middle ages; yet its scope is world-wide, ranging across Eurasia and the Americas to trace the interregional connections formed by the great Arab conquests and the expansion of Islam, the migrations of horse nomads such as the Avars and the Turks, the formation of the vast Mongol Empire, and the spread of new technologies – including gunpowder and the earliest firearms – by land and sea.
There is increasing recognition of the mental health needs of elite athletes and sports professionals. The first of its kind, this important new book draws on lived experience from professional athletes bringing together the latest evidence-based research on severe mental illness recognition and management within elite sport. Each chapter focuses on a different sport with a case-study example to guide you through diagnosis and developing a biopsychosocial management plan, followed by self-assessment tools at the end of each case to help consolidate your learning. Each chapter has been co-authored by a mix of psychiatrists, sports medicine specialists and allied health care professionals to bring a diverse range of professional opinions and insights relating to optimising athlete mental health. Each chapter also features the unique perspective of a professional athlete from that sport, to gain insight from lived experience.
Reforms to campaign finance laws at the beginning of the twenty-first century led to concerns that Canadian political parties would become more centralized, thereby altering the stratarchical arrangement between local party organizations and the national party office. This article extends the period of analysis to 2008 and 2011. Although concerns were not unfounded, data reported in this article reveal that horizontal linkages developed between constituency associations in the Conservative Party of Canada, instead of downward money transfers from the national office. The article compares the Conservative party to its major competitors and explores three regional cases where these linkages are prevalent. Tobit regression is used to examine whether monetary transfers are coordinated by the central office or initiated by local constituency associations. Given weak evidence for the latter, the findings demonstrate that parties with a reliable base of support can leverage their campaign resources from one region into a national presence.
The evolution of resistance to multiple herbicides in Palmer amaranth is a major challenge for its management. In this study, a Palmer amaranth population from Hutchinson, Kansas (HMR), was characterized for resistance to inhibitors of photosystem II (PSII) (e.g., atrazine), acetolactate synthase (ALS) (e.g., chlorsulfuron), and EPSP synthase (EPSPS) (e.g., glyphosate), and this resistance was investigated. About 100 HMR plants were treated with field-recommended doses (1×) of atrazine, chlorsulfuron, and glyphosate, separately along with Hutchinson multiple-herbicide (atrazine, chlorsulfuron, and glyphosate)–susceptible (HMS) Palmer amaranth as control. The mechanism of resistance to these herbicides was investigated by sequencing or amplifying the psbA, ALS, and EPSPS genes, the molecular targets of atrazine, chlorsulfuron, and glyphosate, respectively. Fifty-two percent of plants survived a 1× (2,240 g ai ha−1) atrazine application with no known psbA gene mutation, indicating the predominance of a non–target site resistance mechanism to this herbicide. Forty-two percent of plants survived a 1× (18 g ai ha−1) dose of chlorsulfuron with proline197serine, proline197threonine, proline197alanine, and proline197asparagine, or tryptophan574leucine mutations in the ALS gene. About 40% of the plants survived a 1× (840 g ae ha−1) dose of glyphosate with no known mutations in the EPSPS gene. Quantitative PCR results revealed increased EPSPS copy number (50 to 140) as the mechanism of glyphosate resistance in the survivors. The most important finding of this study was the evolution of resistance to at least two sites of action (SOAs) (~50% of plants) and to all three herbicides due to target site as well as non–target site mechanisms. The high incidence of individual plants with resistance to multiple SOAs poses a challenge for effective management of this weed.
We consider various aspects of longevity trend risk viewed through the prism of a finite time window. We show the broad equivalence of value-at-risk (VaR) capital requirements at a p-value of 99.5% to conditional tail expectations (CTEs) at 99%. We also show how deferred annuities have higher risk, which can require double the solvency capital of equivalently aged immediate anuities. However, results vary considerably with the choice of model and so longevity trend-risk capital can only be determined through consideration of multiple models to inform actuarial judgement. This model risk is even starker when trying to value longevity derivatives. We briefly discuss the importance of using smoothed models and describe two methods to considerably shorten VaR and CTE run times.
Twenty-four new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon ages from sediment cores in nine lakes associated with the Shipshewana and Sturgis moraines in northern Indiana and southern Michigan estimate when recession of the Saginaw Lobe of the Laurentide Ice Sheet was underway in the southern Great Lakes region, USA. Average OSL ages of 23.4 ± 2.2 ka for the Shipshewana Moraine and 19.7 ± 2.2 ka for the Sturgis Moraine are considered minimum limiting deglacial ages for these recessional moraines. The much younger radiocarbon ages are consistent with other regional radiocarbon ages from lakes, and record climate amelioration around ~16.5 cal ka BP. Early recession of the interlobate Saginaw Lobe was well underway by 23.4 ± 2.2 ka, when the adjacent Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes were a few hundred kilometers farther south and near their maximum southerly limits. The results provide the first time constraints when sediment from the Lake Michigan and Huron-Erie lobes began filling the accommodation space left by the Saginaw Lobe. The difference between the oldest radiocarbon and OSL age is 7400 yr for the Shipshewana Moraine and 3400 yr for the Sturgis Moraine.
To investigate the relationships between work environmental factors and the risk of major depressive disorder (MDD) over one year and to identify factors associated with the outcomes of individuals with MDD.
We conducted a population-based longitudinal study of employees who were randomly selected in Alberta (n = 4239). MDD was assessed using the World Health Organization's Composite International Diagnostic Interview - Auto 2.1.
The one-year incidence of MDD was 3.6% (95% CI: 2.8%-4.6%) overall. It was 2.9% (95% CI: 1.9% - 4.2%) in men and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.3% - 6.2%) in women. The relationships between work environmental factors and MDD differed by sex. In men, high job strain increased the risk of MDD in those who worked 35-40 hours per week; job insecurity and family-work conflict were predictive of MDD. Women who worked 35-40 hours, who reported job insecurity, high effort-reward imbalance and work-family conflict were at higher risk of MDD. Long working hours, negative thinking and having comorbid social phobia were predictive of MDD. Perceived work-family conflict, severity of major depressive episode and symptom of depressed mood were significantly associated with recurrence of MDD.
Job strain, effort-reward imbalance, job insecurity and work-family conflicts are important risk factors for the onset of MDD, and should be targets of primary prevention. However, these work environmental factors appear to operate differently in men and in women. Clinical and psychosocial factors are important in the prognosis of MDD. The factors associated with persistence and recurrence of MDD may be different.
ADHD is a common disorder that often presents in childhood and is associated with increased healthcare resource use.
To evaluate ADHD incidence and estimate resource utilization and costs of care in the UK.
The Clinical Practice Research Datalink was searched between 1998 and 2010 for patients aged 6-17 years, newly diagnosed with ADHD. Age- and sex-matched, controls were also identified (ratio 1:3). ADHD incidence was calculated as the number of incident cases/100,000 people (/100k) in the at-risk population. Resource utilization in the first year post-diagnosis was estimated for general practice (GP) contacts, investigations, drug treatments, outpatient appointments, and inpatient admissions. Monetary costs were derived from various sources (at 2011 prices).
2,873 subjects with ADHD and 6,598 matched controls were identified. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 9.8 (2.8) years and most (87%) were boys. The incidence of ADHD amongst boys and girls, respectively, increased from 69/100k and 7/100k in 1998 to 132/100k and 24/100k in 2007, and then fell to 98/100k and 20/100k in 2010. The mean (SD) annual, cost was £1,291 (£2,121) for cases and £315 (£2,345) for controls. For cases and controls, respectively, annual costs comprised GP contacts (£199, £70), investigations (£10, £8), drug treatments (£306, £37), outpatient appointments (£572, £62) and inpatient admissions (£203, £139).
The incidence of ADHD increased between 1998 and 2007, then declined slightly in 2010. Medical costs in the first year post-diagnosis were notably higher in children with ADHD compared with controls
Models of mortality often require constraints in order that parameters may be estimated uniquely. It is not difficult to find references in the literature to the “identifiability problem”, and papers often give arguments to justify the choice of particular constraint systems designed to deal with this problem. Many of these models are generalised linear models, and it is known that the fitted values (of mortality) in such models are identifiable, i.e., invariant with respect to the choice of constraint systems. We show that for a wide class of forecasting models, namely ARIMA
models with a fitted mean and
$\delta = 1$
or 2, identifiability extends to the forecast values of mortality; this extended identifiability continues to hold when some model terms are smoothed. The results are illustrated with data on UK males from the Office for National Statistics for the age-period model, the age-period-cohort model, the age-period-cohort-improvements model of the Continuous Mortality Investigation and the Lee–Carter model.