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According to the classical chronology of the Inca State, the ascension to power of Pachacuti Inca took place around AD 1438 and the construction of Machu Picchu began by AD 1450–1460. However, the improvement in the accuracy of radiocarbon (14C) dating resulting from the application of Bayesian analysis has changed our view of the historical chronology. This new research raises questions about our understanding of the cultural development of the Machu Picchu area, in the light of the new proposed chronological scheme. This paper presents a set of 11 new 14C dates, derived from AMS, from the sites of Llaqta of Machu Picchu, Chachabamba, and Choqesuysuy. The latter two sites are situated within the Machu Picchu National Archaeological Park (Arqueología del Santuario Histórico Nacional y Sitio Patrimonio Mundial de Machu Picchu) and have been interpreted as being part of the contemporary Late Horizon Inca landscape. The new 14C ages are modeled using Bayesian inference and present a revised dating framework for these sites and their chronological relationship with Llaqta of Machu Picchu.
The radiocarbon (14C) calibration curve so far contains annually resolved data only for a short period of time. With accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) matching the precision of decay counting, it is now possible to efficiently produce large datasets of annual resolution for calibration purposes using small amounts of wood. The radiocarbon intercomparison on single-year tree-ring samples presented here is the first to investigate specifically possible offsets between AMS laboratories at high precision. The results show that AMS laboratories are capable of measuring samples of Holocene age with an accuracy and precision that is comparable or even goes beyond what is possible with decay counting, even though they require a thousand times less wood. It also shows that not all AMS laboratories always produce results that are consistent with their stated uncertainties. The long-term benefits of studies of this kind are more accurate radiocarbon measurements with, in the future, better quantified uncertainties.
Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
Early researchers of radiocarbon levels in Southern Hemisphere tree rings identified a variable North-South hemispheric offset, necessitating construction of a separate radiocarbon calibration curve for the South. We present here SHCal20, a revised calibration curve from 0–55,000 cal BP, based upon SHCal13 and fortified by the addition of 14 new tree-ring data sets in the 2140–0, 3520–3453, 3608–3590 and 13,140–11,375 cal BP time intervals. We detail the statistical approaches used for curve construction and present recommendations for the use of the Northern Hemisphere curve (IntCal20), the Southern Hemisphere curve (SHCal20) and suggest where application of an equal mixture of the curves might be more appropriate. Using our Bayesian spline with errors-in-variables methodology, and based upon a comparison of Southern Hemisphere tree-ring data compared with contemporaneous Northern Hemisphere data, we estimate the mean Southern Hemisphere offset to be 36 ± 27 14C yrs older.
Coronavirus disease 2019 personal protective equipment has been reported to affect communication in healthcare settings. This study sought to identify those challenges experimentally.
Bamford–Kowal–Bench speech discrimination in noise performance of healthcare workers was tested under simulated background noise conditions from a variety of hospital environments. Candidates were assessed for ability to interpret speech with and without personal protective equipment, with both normal speech and raised voice.
There was a significant difference in speech discrimination scores between normal and personal protective equipment wearing subjects in operating theatre simulated background noise levels (70 dB).
Wearing personal protective equipment can impact communication in healthcare environments. Efforts should be made to remind staff about this burden and to seek alternative communication paradigms, particularly in operating theatre environments.
Improving functioning in patients with bipolar disorder (BD) is one of the main objectives in clinical practice. Of the few psychosocial interventions that have been specifically developed to enhance the psychosocial outcome in BD, functional remediation (FR) is one which has demonstrated efficacy. The aim of this study was to examine which variables could predict improved functional outcome following the FR intervention in a sample of euthymic or subsyndromal patients with BD.
A total of 92 euthymic outpatients were included in this longitudinal study, with 62 completers. Partial correlations controlling for the functional outcome at baseline were calculated between demographic, clinical and neurocognitive variables, and functional outcome at endpoint was assessed by means of the Functioning Assessment Short Test scale. Next, a multiple regression analysis was run in order to identify potential predictors of functional outcome at 2-year follow-up, using the variables found to be statistically significant in the correlation analysis and other variables related to functioning as identified in the previous scientific literature.
The regression model revealed that only two independent variables significantly contributed to the model (F(6,53): 4.003; p = 0.002), namely verbal memory and inhibitory control. The model accounted for 31.2% of the variance. No other demographic or clinical variable contributed to the model.
Results suggest that patients with better cognitive performance at baseline, especially in terms of verbal memory and executive functions, may present better functional outcomes at long term follow-up after receiving functional remediation.
To identify from the literature, and to critically evaluate, all validated instruments currently available to measure self-harming behaviour in adults.
Materials and methods
Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Health and Psychosocial Instruments and Google scholar were searched, grey literature was sought and the reference lists of relevant articles were checked to identify instruments.
A total of seven validated instruments which met our inclusion criteria were identified and data were extracted regarding each instrument's format, administration method, psychometric properties and number of items and domains included. Considerable variation was observed in the overall quality of these instruments. Fourteen other instruments were identified which did not describe their psychometric properties or had not been published and were subsequently excluded from our review.
Although many instruments were identified in our search, only a small number had been validated with published psychometric properties. Of the identified instruments, the Suicide Attempt Self-Injury Interview (SASII) appears to be the most robust and comprehensive instrument currently available. Despite the absence of psychometric data, numerous other instruments have been used in published studies, including clinical trials.
Our results highlight the pressing need for a standardized, empirically validated and versatile measure of intentional self-harming behaviour for use in both clinical and research settings. The optimum characteristics of such an instrument are discussed.
Balloon Eustachian tuboplasty is a surgical management option for Eustachian tube dysfunction; it has shown promising results in studies worldwide, but has had limited uptake in the UK. This study reports long-term outcomes for patients offered balloon Eustachian tuboplasty for chronic dilatory and baro-challenge-induced Eustachian tube dysfunction, and describes practical experience gained from its implementation.
Balloon Eustachian tuboplasty was conducted in 25 patients (36 ears) with Eustachian tube dysfunction over three years. Information on presenting symptoms and signs, audiometric findings, tympanometry, and Eustachian Tube Dysfunction Questionnaire-7 scores were recorded pre- and post-operatively with a minimum follow up of one year.
Sixteen (64 per cent) of the 25 patients demonstrated symptom resolution after balloon Eustachian tuboplasty according to the Eustachian Tube Dysfunction Questionnaire-7. Fourteen (64 per cent) of the 22 patients with a type B or C tympanogram pre-operatively, had a type A trace post-operatively. Fifteen (75 per cent) of 20 patients with pre-operative conductive hearing loss showed improvement post-operatively, and 11 (50 per cent) of 22 patients with pre-operative middle-ear effusion or tympanic membrane retraction showed resolution.
Balloon Eustachian tuboplasty can improve subjective and objective measures of Eustachian tube dysfunction, and provide longer-term resolution.
The gravitationally driven flow of fluid from a reservoir following the partial collapse of its confining dam, or the partial opening of its confining lock, is modelled using the nonlinear shallow water equations, coupled to outflow conditions, in which the drainage is modelled as flow over a constricted, broad-crested weir. The resulting unsteady motion reveals systematic draining, on which strong and relatively rapid oscillations are imposed. The oscillations propagate between the outflow and the impermeable back wall of the reservoir. This dynamics is investigated utilising three methods: hodograph techniques to yield quasi-analytical solutions, asymptotic analysis at relatively late times after initiation and numerical integration of the governing equations. The hodograph transformation is used to find exact solutions at early times, revealing that from initially quiescent conditions the fluid drains and yet repeatedly generates intervals during which there are regions of constant depth and velocity adjacent to the boundaries. A novel modified multiscale asymptotic analysis designed for late times is employed to determine the limiting rate of draining and wave structure. It is shown that the excess height drains as
and, when the obstacle has finite height, the velocity field decays as
, and exhibits a wave structure that tends towards a constant and relatively rapid phase speed. In the case of a pure constriction, for which all the fluid ultimately drains out of the reservoir, the motion adjusts to a self-similar state in which the velocity field decays as
. Oscillations around this state have an exponentially increasing period. Numerical simulations with a novel implementation of boundary conditions are performed; they confirm the hodograph solution and provide data for the asymptotic results.
Food insecurity, or self-reports of inadequate food access due to limited financial resources, remains prevalent among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We examined the impact of food insecurity on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) adherence within an integrated care programme that provides services to PLHIV, including two meals per day.
Adjusted OR (aOR) were estimated by generalized estimating equations, quantifying the relationship between food insecurity (exposure) and cART adherence (outcome) with multivariable logistic regression.
We drew on survey data collected between February 2014 and March 2016 from the Dr. Peter Centre Study based in Vancouver, Canada.
The study included 116 PLHIV at baseline, with ninety-nine participants completing a 12-month follow-up interview. The median (quartile 1–quartile 3) age was 46 (39–52) years at baseline and 87 % (n 101) were biologically male at birth.
At baseline, 74 % (n 86) of participants were food insecure (≥2 affirmative responses on Health Canada’s Household Food Security Survey Module) and 67 % (n 78) were adherent to cART ≥95 % of the time. In the adjusted regression analysis, food insecurity was associated with suboptimal cART adherence (aOR = 0·47, 95 % CI 0·24, 0·93).
While food provision may reduce some health-related harms, there remains a relationship between this prevalent experience and suboptimal cART adherence in this integrated care programme. Future studies that elucidate strategies to mitigate food insecurity and its effects on cART adherence among PLHIV in this setting and in other similar environments are necessary.
The interaction of gravitationally driven, free-surface flows of viscous fluid with topographic features is investigated theoretically. The motion is studied in the regime where the depth of the flow is much smaller than the streamwise extent of the topography. A lubrication model of the motion is developed, integrated numerically and analysed asymptotically. For small mounds, it is shown that the flow surmounts the obstacles, but for larger mounds the flow is deflected around it and can form dry zones in its wake into which fluid does not flow, as well as forming deeper ponded regions upstream. Which of these phenomena prevails is shown to depend upon the amplitude of the mound height and the thickness of the oncoming flow relative to the streamwise length scale over which the topography varies. By using numerical and asymptotic results, we demonstrate that relatively wide mounds lead to the development of deep ponds of material upstream, which may lead to flow overtopping if the mound is not sufficiently high. These insights can be used to inform the design of barriers that defend built infrastructures from lava flows, and it is shown how this model can also provide an upper bound on the force exerted by the flow on them.
Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.
Precise radiocarbon (14C) dating of sedimentary sequences is important for developing robust chronologies of environmental change, but sampling of suitable components can be challenging in highly dynamic landscapes. Here we investigate radiocarbon determinations of different peat size fractions from six peat sites, representing a range of geomorphological contexts on the South Atlantic subantarctic islands of the Falklands and South Georgia. To investigate the most suitable fraction for dating, 112 measurements were obtained from three components within selected horizons: a fine fraction <0.2 mm, a coarse fraction >0.2 mm, and bulk material. We find site selection is critical, with locations surrounded by high-ground and/or relatively slowly accumulating sites more susceptible to the translocation of older carbon. Importantly, in locations with reduced potential for redeposition of material, our results show that there is no significant or systematic difference between ages derived from bulk material, fine or coarse (plant macrofossil) material, providing confidence in the resulting age model. Crucially, in areas comprising complex terrain with extreme relief, we recommend dating macrofossils or bulk carbon rather than a fine fraction, or employing comprehensive dating of multiple sedimentary fractions to determine the most reliable fraction(s) for developing a robust chronological framework.
This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval.
Simulation-based training has a fundamental role in medical education as it allows the learner to gain experience managing emergencies in a safe, controlled environment.
This 1-day course consisted of eight high-fidelity simulation scenarios, followed by a video-assisted debrief focusing on the technical and non-technical (communication skills, teamwork, leadership and situational awareness) aspects of managing ENT and head and neck emergencies.
Eight courses have run since June 2014. Post-course questionnaires demonstrated that candidates’ confidence scores in managing airway and head and neck emergencies increased following completion of the course (p < 0.0001).
This was the first fully immersive ENT simulation course developed in the region. The learning objectives for each scenario were mapped to the ENT Intercollegiate Surgical Curriculum Programme. Feedback from the course indicated a continued demand for this style of training, leading to its inclusion in the training calendar.
The unsteady ascent of a buoyant, turbulent line plume through a quiescent, uniform environment is modelled in terms of the width-averaged vertical velocity and density deficit. It is demonstrated that for a well-posed, linearly stable model, account must be made for the horizontal variation of the velocity and the density deficit; in particular the variance of the velocity field and the covariance of the density deficit and velocity fields, represented through shape factors, must exceed threshold values, and that models based upon ‘top-hat’ distributions in which the dependent fields are piecewise constant are ill-posed. Numerical solutions of the nonlinear governing equations are computed to reveal that the transient response of the system to an instantaneous change in buoyancy flux at the source may be captured through new similarity solutions, the form of which depend upon both the ratio of the old to new buoyancy fluxes and the shape factors.
Background: There is strong evidence to suggest that anxiety is associated with paranoia in clinical and non-clinical samples. However, no research to date has directly manipulated anxiety to investigate if state-anxiety has a causal role in state-paranoia in clinical populations. Aims: To investigate whether an anxious-mood induction leads to greater paranoia than a neutral-mood induction in people experiencing psychosis and paranoia and, if so, whether this is predicted by anxiety over and above other variables. Method: 22 participants with a psychosis-spectrum diagnosis took part in a two condition cross-over experimental design. Participants underwent a neutral-mood and an anxious-mood induction with levels of state-anxiety, state-affect and state-paranoia being measured before and after each condition. Results: State-paranoia was significantly higher after the anxious condition compared with the neutral condition. State-anxiety and negative-affect were significant predictors of levels of state-paranoia after the anxious condition. When both predictors were included in a regression model, only negative-affect was a significant predictor of state-paranoia after the anxious condition. There were a number of methodological limitations. Conclusions: State-anxiety and negative-affect may both be involved in the maintenance of paranoia in clinical populations, as predicted by cognitive models. Negative-affect may be the strongest predictor of state-paranoia in clinical populations. Reasons for this are discussed, as well as the implications. Interventions that seek to reduce negative state-affect may be beneficial in managing state-paranoia. Further research is warranted to explore the suggested clinical and theoretical implications of these findings.