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Potential planting area for tuber mustard was simulated using the Maxent model under current and future conditions based on 591 coordinates and 22 environmental layers. Model accuracy was excellent, with area under the receiving operator curve values of 0.967 and 0.958 for model training and testing, respectively. Dominant factors were mean diurnal range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean temperature and minimum temperature of the coldest month, with thresholds of 6.5–7.5, 5.5–9, 16–19 and 2.0–6.5 °C, respectively. Under current conditions, suitable habitat areas (2.16% of total land in China) were concentrated mainly in Central, Southwest and East China, which can be defined as three occurrence and diffusion centres. In the 2050s and 2070s, suitable habitat areas are predicted to change to 3.72 and 3.92%, and 3.60 and 3.73% under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively, indicating that suitable habitat areas will increase slightly. However, future distribution of tuber mustard was predicted to differ among provinces or cities, i.e. predicted suitable habitat areas in Sichuan Province increased up to the 2050s but remained relatively unchanged between the 2050s and 2070s; in Chongqing city they first increased and then decreased; in Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces they increased continuously; and in Guizhou, Hubei, Jiangxi Provinces and Shanghai city they first decreased, and then increased. The results from the current study provide useful information for management decisions of tuber mustard.
The Iron Age of Mainland Southeast Asia began in the fifth century bc and lasted for about a millennium. In coastal regions, the development of trade along the Maritime Silk Road led to the growth of port cities. In the interior, a fall in monsoon rains particularly affected the Mun River valley. This coincided with the construction of moats/reservoirs round Iron Age settlements from which water was channelled into wet rice fields, the production of iron ploughshares and sickles, population growth, burgeoning exchange and increased conflict. We explore the social impact of this agricultural revolution through applying statistical analyses to mortuary samples dating before and after the development of wet rice farming. These suggest that there was a swift formation of social elites represented by the wealth of mortuary offerings, followed by a decline. Two associated changes are identified. The first involved burying the dead in residential houses; the second considers the impact of an increasingly aquatic environment on health by examining demographic trends involving a doubling of infant mortality that concentrated on neonates. A comparison between this sequence and that seen in coastal ports suggests two interconnected instances of rapid pathways to social change responding to different social and environmental stressors.
Skilled nursing home facilities (SNFs) house a vulnerable population frequently exposed to respiratory pathogens. Our study aims to gain a better understanding of the transmission of nursing home-acquired viral respiratory infections in non-epidemic settings. Symptomatic surveillance was performed in three SNFs for residents exhibiting acute respiratory symptoms. Environmental surveillance of five high-touch areas was performed to assess possible transmission. All resident and environmental samples were screened using a commercial multiplex polymerase chain reaction platform. Bayesian methods were used to evaluate environmental contamination. Among nursing home residents with respiratory symptoms, 19% had a detectable viral pathogen (parainfluenza-3, rhinovirus/enterovirus, RSV, or influenza B). Environmental contamination was found in 20% of total room surface swabs of symptomatic residents. Environmental and resident results were all concordant. Target period prevalence among symptomatic residents ranged from 5.5 to 13.3% depending on target. Bayesian analysis quantifies the probability of environmental shedding due to parainfluenza-3 as 92.4% (95% CI: 86.8–95.8%) and due to rhinovirus/enterovirus as 65.6% (95% CI: 57.9–72.5%). Our findings confirm that non-epidemic viral infections are common among SNF residents exhibiting acute respiratory symptoms and that environmental contamination may facilitate further spread with considerable epidemiological implications. Findings further emphasise the importance of environmental infection control for viral respiratory pathogens in long-term care facilities.
Alcoholic patients are more susceptible to Strongyloides stercoralis infection. The chronic use of alcohol raises the levels of endogenous corticosteroids, which regulates the development of larvae and stimulates the differentiation of rhabditiform into infective filariform larvae, thus inducing internal autoinfection. Therefore, early diagnosis is important to prevent severe strongyloidiasis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of parasitological methods, according to the parasite load and the number of stool samples, for diagnosis of S. stercoralis infection, as well the peripheral blood eosinophil count in alcoholic patients. A total of 330 patients were included in this study. The diagnosis was established using three parasitological methods: agar plate culture, Baermann–Moraes method and spontaneous sedimentation. Peripheral eosinophilia was considered when the level was >600 eosinophils/mm3. The agar plate culture (APC) had the highest sensitivity (97.3%). However, the analysis of multiple samples increased the sensitivity of all parasitological methods. The sensitivities of the methods were influenced by the parasite load. When the larval number was above 10, the sensitivity of APC was 100%, while in spontaneous sedimentation the sensitivity reached 100% when the larval number was above 50. In the present study, 15.4% of alcoholic patients infected with S. stercoralis (12/78) had increased peripheral blood eosinophil count (above 600 eosinophils/mm3). For an efficient parasitological diagnosis of S. stercoralis infection in alcoholic patients, repeated examination by two parasitological methods must be recommended, including agar plate culture due to its higher sensitivity. Moreover, S. stercoralis infection was associated with eosinophilia, mostly in patients excreting up to 10 larvae/g faeces.
Fat is often fed to sheep and cattle as a means to increase dietary energy concentration. There is increasing interest in the supplementation of ruminant diets with fats and oils. However feeding fat may reduce dry matter digestibility, and feeding ruminant animals large quantities of fat (>5% of total dry matter intake) can result in a marked negative effect on fibre and dry mater intake. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of fat supplementation on ruminal degradation of dry matter (DM) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF) of sheep fed a tropical hay.
Temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau over the last 1000 years has been inferred using a composite δ18O record from four ice cores. Data from a new ice core recovered from the Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau are combined with those from three other cores (Dunde, Guliya and Dasuopu) recovered previously. The ice-core δ18O composite record indicates that the temperature change on the whole Tibetan Plateau is similar to that in the Northern Hemisphere on multi-decadal timescales except that there is no decreasing trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century. The δ18O composite record from the northern Tibetan Plateau, however, indicates a cooling trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century, which is more consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The δ18O composite record reveals the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the Tibetan Plateau. However, on the Tibetan Plateau the LIA is not the coldest period during the last millennium as in other regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The present study indicates that the 20th-century warming on the Tibetan Plateau is abrupt, and is warmer than at any time during the past 1000 years.
Seasonal temperature variations occur in the glacier layer about 15–20 m below the surface, while at greater depths the glacier temperature depends on the long-term surface conditions. It is generally accepted that for glaciers without surface melting the temperature at 10 m depth (T10) is close to the mean annual air temperature at standard screen level (Ta), i.e. T10 =Ta. We found that this relationship is not valid for Ta above –17˚C and below –55˚C. The goal of our investigation is to find a better temperature transfer function (TTF) between Ta and temperature at the boundary of the active layer in accumulation areas of polar and tropical glaciers. Low-precision T10 temperatures from boreholes, obtained at 41 sites, are compared with air temperatures (Ta) measured in the vicinity of these sites for at least a 1 year period. We determine that when Ta falls into the temperature range –60 to –7˚C, empirical values can be approximated as T10 = 1:2Ta + 6:7. Analysis of these data suggests that high T10 occurs in the areas of the glacier that collect meltwater.
In this paper, the ratio of dust layer thickness to ice thickness, i.e. the dust ratio, is used as a proxy for dust event frequency in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau. We reconstructed a ∼900 year record that reveals that the 1770s–1880s was a prolonged period of high dust ratios, which indicates that dust events occurred frequently from the late 18th century through the 19th century. Statistical analysis of the variations in the dust ratios and δ18O (which is a good proxy for air temperature) in the Malan ice core shows that there is a strong negative correlation between them. This suggests that dust events occur more frequently in cold periods than in warm periods.
Ortles mountain (3905 m a.s.l.), South Tyrol, Italy, is the highest mountain of the Eastern European Alps, and its upper glacier, Alto dell’Ortles, presents a unique opportunity to obtain the first paleoenvironmental record from an ice core in this area. To study the suitability of this glacier as a drilling site, in 2009 we performed the first preliminary study of its glaciological characteristics at ˜3830 m a.s.l. The maximum thickness is ˜75 m, and lamination of the exposed ice layers is excellent down to bedrock. Firn and ice lenses were observed in a 10 m shallow core, and the firn/ice transition was below ˜24m. The seasonal chemical signal is clearly preserved only within the uppermost 2008 and 2009 snow/firn. A simple mass-balance model, the incipient ‘smoothing’ of the chemical record, and the observed ice lenses provide evidence that melting, infiltration and refreezing cycles occurred within the firn layers formed before 2008. Nevertheless, the mass balance of the upper part of Alto dell’Ortles was positive (˜800mma_1) during the last few years. We suggest that an environmental history is likely to be well preserved only within the ice layers formed before ˜1980, when summer air temperature was ˜2°C colder than today in this area. Clearly the continued warming trend predicted to occur over the next few decades, and the consequent increase in frequency and/or intensity of infiltration processes, will endanger the preservation of the glacial archive conserved in the deep ice layers of Ortles mountain.
A total of 11 ice cores to a maximum depth of 460 m have been obtained over the past 3 years from high-altitude glaciers on the saddle of Mount Bona and Mount Churchill in Alaska (designated B–C), and on Quelccaya ice cap and Nevado Coropuna in Peru. Ice coring was conducted using an intermediate-depth drilling system. The system includes an electromechanical drill (EMD) and an ethanol thermal electric drill (ETED). The EMD permitted an average ice-core production rate (ICPR) of 7.0 m h−1 down to 150 m. An average ICPR of 2 m h−1 to 460 m depth was possible with the ETED. The quality of the B–C ice cores is better than that of cores previously drilled with an EMD and ETED system. A new cutter design, drilling with a lubricant/cutting fluid and a new anti-torque assembly were tested in the laboratory and in glacier boreholes. We examine the performance of the drills in cold and temperate ice and in clean and particle-laden ice. The influence of the ethanol drilling fluid on ice-core isotopic, ionic and dust composition is discussed.
Ice cores from small ice caps provide valuable climatic information, additional to that of Greenland and Antarctica. However, their integrity is usually compromised by summer meltwater percolation. To determine to what extent this can affect such ice cores, we performed high-resolution tritium measurements on samples from two ice cores from Spitsbergen covering the period AD1955–75. The very sharp and distinct peaks in the tritium precipitation record are subject to several post-depositional processes. We developed a model that uses the precipitation record as input and incorporates the three most important processes (radioactive decay, isotope diffusion and meltwater percolation). Results are compared with measured tritium and density profiles. Both ice-core records contain sharp bomb peaks in the pre-1963 period. It is shown that these peaks would be much smoother in the absence of melt. In this case the main effect of melt and the refreezing of percolation water is the formation of ice layers that form barriers for firn diffusion; thus melt paradoxically results in better preservation of the annual isotope signals. Conversely, for the period after 1963 the main effect of melt is a stronger smoothing of the tritium profiles.
The diffusion of stable water isotopes in snow was measured in two controlled laboratory experiments. Two batches of snow of different isotopic composition were stacked alternately with varying layer thicknesses. The stack was stored in a freezer room at constant temperature for several months, and sampled at regular intervals to analyse the diffusion. Measured isotope profiles were fitted to a theoretical model with diffusion length as the fit parameter. In the first experiment, we observed a difference in diffusion rates between layers of different thicknesses, which is likely caused by layers of snow not being in proper contact with each other. In the second experiment we found very good agreement between measurements and model results. The measured diffusivity is compared with theory, in which we mainly focus on the temperature dependence of the ice–vapour fractionation factors. This temperature dependence is slightly different for the different isotopes of water, which leads to a difference in diffusion rates. We illustrate how our set-up can be used to measure the ratio between ice–vapour fractionation factors of oxygen-18 and deuterium, which determine the relation between the difference in diffusion and the firn temperature.
The dynamical states of nine wide visual double stars (ADS 7251, 10329, 10386, 10759 [psi Dra], 11061 [40&41 Dra], 11632, 12169, 12815 [16 Cyg]) are considered. The 20-30 – year series of photographic observations obtained with the Pulkovo 26-inch refractor (Kisselev et al., 1988) supported by the data of relative radial velocities of the components and parallaxes are used. On this base the vectors of relative spatial positions and velocities of the components are determined or estimated with confidence. Families of orbits, satisfying observational data are determined by assuming stability of motions in the systems. The orbits of three nearby binaries ADS 7251, 11632 and 61 Cyg were calculated earlier by classical methods and belong to the family mentioned above. Thus the authenticity of our analysis is proved (Kisselev, Kiyaeva, 1980). It is shown that elliptical motion in the couples ADS 10759 and 11061 could be explained only if an additional (hidden) mass exists. This mass consists of one solar mass for the first couple and two solar masses for the second one. The dynamical orbital elements of the binaries belonging to each family may differ greatly, but the geometrical elements are fairly stable. The orientation of the orbit planes of binaries with respect to the Galaxy plane is determined. In one half of the cases the orbital planes are approximately orthogonal to that of our Galaxy.
We report on the highest angular resolution observation to date of the bright core, R136a, of the massive star cluster R136 within the 30 Doradus complex in the LMC. This visual observation was obtained with the interferometric fringe mode of operation of Fine Guidance Sensor No. 3 (FGS3) on board HST. Crowding and strong diffuse background from nebular emission make this a challenging observation.
The giant HII region 30 Dor has provided some of the best candidates for the most massive stars, like R136al. We provide evidence for a new component, R136a1B, within the previously known R136a1-a2 system with a separation of 80 mas (or ≈ 4000 au from a1 at the distance of the LMC), and δV = 1.1 mag fainter than the brightest component a1. Estimates from current evolutionary models of massive stars based on the new FGS photometry predict, after subtraction of a1B, that the present mass of R136a1 is 30 M⊙ with a main sequence progenitor of 60 M⊙. To date, this is the lowest direct estimate of the mass of R136a1.
The success of this difficult observation adds a new, unique feature to FGS3 and gives a much expanded, astrophysically very rewarding, role to the interferometer.
A portable computer program called SUBPLATE was developed to implement the sub-plate overlap technique proposed by Taff (1989 AJ 358, 359). The main point of the technique is to divide the plate into smaller pieces and then to overlap them, each with a minimum number of reference stars to solve for a linear solution.
We present the results of pollen analysis performed on an ice core recovered from Nevado Sajama, Bolivia, dated to 25 ka BP. Low pollen concentrations from 25 to 15 ka BP are consistent with the scenario of an expanded ice cap surrounded by sparse vegetation and cold conditions on the Altiplano during the Last Glacial Maximum. After 15 ka BP, more pollen is present and percentages show vegetation response to climate fluctuations during the late Pleistocene. Initially, high concentrations of Poaceae pollen are replaced by Asteraceae pollen, suggesting the occurrence of dry conditions towards the end of the Bølling–Allerød/Guantiva interstadial. A deglacial climatic reversal is registered in the pollen record by an abrupt decline in Asteraceae and maximum percentages of Poaceae, indicating wet conditions during 14–12 ka BP. The climate changed abruptly to warm and dry after 12 ka BP, but vegetation remained in disequilibrium with climate until 10 ka BP. Pollen results indicate dry conditions at the beginning of the Holocene, with humidity increasing steadily until 8.5 ka BP. Decreased pollen concentration values (used as a moisture availability proxy) place the mid-Holocene dry period between 8 and 5 ka BP. This was followed by wetter conditions to the present day.
Ice coring of temperate and polythermal glaciers demonstrates some limitations of most electromechanical (EM) and thermal electric (TE) drills. Most TE drills are heavy, require a heavy power system, work slowly and cannot operate in boreholes going through the cold–temperate ice transition. Antifreeze thermal electric drills (ATED) are capable of operating in polar ice caps, polythermal and temperate glaciers, in boreholes filled with water and/or hydrophilic fluids. Performance of the ATED drill can be improved by using an open-top core barrel and low-power and narrow-kerf coring head. ATED-type drills can be modified for an open-top core barrel equipped with low-power coring head and include a new scheme for drilling-fluid circulation using two pumps. A small metering pump releases pure ethanol above the top of the drill, and a second pump enables circulation of the borehole fluid, an ethanol–water solution (EWS), above the kerf. Use of a narrow-kerf coring head reduces power requirements and makes it possible to design a lightweight drilling system that includes the EM and TE drills for shallow and intermediate-depth drilling.
This paper describes a new, environmentally friendly drilling technique for making short-and long-term access boreholes in shelf glaciers using lightweight drills. The new drilling technique was successfully developed for installation of small-diameter sensors under the Ross Ice Shelf through ~ 193 m thick ice at Windless Bight, McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The two access boreholes were drilled and sensors installed in 110 working hours. The total weight of the drilling equipment including the power system and fuel is <400 kg. Installation of small-diameter sensors was possible for 1.8– 6 hours after penetration through the glacier into the sea water beneath. The new drilling technique does not require drilling fluid and therefore has minimal environmental impact. It should permit access through ice-shelf ice up to 350 m thick, or glaciers on grounded ice or subglacial lakes if there is no water-permeable interface at the base. Modifications, presented in this work, of the drilling equipment and protocol will allow for (1) ~ 21 working hours for penetration through 200 m of ice, (2) installation of sensors up to 120 mm in diameter and (3) drilling long-term open boreholes through 400 m thick ice in 100 working hours.