Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-995ml Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T09:31:28.944Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2020

LIVIO DI LONARDO*
Affiliation:
Bocconi University
JESSICA S. SUN*
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
SCOTT A. TYSON*
Affiliation:
University of Rochester
*
Livio Di Lonardo, Assistant Professor, Department of Social and Political Sciences and Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Policy, Bocconi University, livio.dilonardo@unibocconi.it.
Jessica S. Sun, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, sunjs@umich.edu.
Scott A. Tyson, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Research Associate, W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy, University of Rochester, styson2@ur.rochester.edu.

Abstract

Autocrats confront a number of threats to their power, some from within the regime and others from foreign actors. To understand how these threats interact and affect autocratic survival, we build a model where an autocratic leader can be ousted by a domestic opposition and a foreign actor. We concentrate on the impact that foreign threats have on the stability of autocratic leadership and show that the presence of foreign threats increases the probability an autocrat retains power. Focusing on two cases, one where a foreign actor and the domestic opposition have aligned interests and one where their interests are misaligned, we elucidate two distinct mechanisms. First, when interests are aligned, autocrats are compelled to increase domestic security to alleviate international pressure. Second, when interests are misaligned, autocrats exploit the downstream threat of foreign intervention to deter domestic threats. We also show that autocrats have incentives to cultivate ideological views hostile to broader interests among politically influential domestic actors.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank Chris Anderson, Dan Bernhardt, Fernanda Brollo, James Fearon, Mark Fey, Scott Gehlbach, Kerim Can Kavakli, Brenton Kenkel, Gabriel Leon, Massimo Morelli, Jack Paine, Marina Petrova, Andrea Ruggeri, Ken Shotts, Konstantin Sonin, Vera Troeger, Stephane Wolton, participants at the Alghero Political Economy Conference and the Petralia Applied Economics Workshop, and seminar participants at Bocconi University and Warwick University for helpful comments and conversations.

References

Acemoglu, Daron, Egorov, Georgy, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2010. “Political Selection and Persistence of Bad Governments.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 125 (4): 15111575.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aidt, Toke, and Leon, Gabriel. 2019. “The Coup: Competition for Office in Authoritarian Regimes.” In The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, Volume 2, eds. Congleton, Roger D., Grofman, Bernard, and Voigt, Stefan, 328. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Aidt, Toke S., and Albornoz, Facundo. 2011. “Political Regimes and Foreign Intervention.” Journal of Development Economics 94 (2): 192201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashworth, Scott, and Ramsay, Kristopher W.. 2010. “Should Audiences Cost? Optimal Domestic Constraints in International Crises.” Unpublished Manuscript. Princeton University.Google Scholar
Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, Enterline, Andrew J., and Joyce, Kyle A.. 2008. “Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process.” Journal of Peace Research 45 (3): 345363.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Persson, Torsten. 2011. Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Boehmer, Charles R., and Sobek, David. 2005. “Violent Adolescence: State Development and the Propensity for Militarized Interstate Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 42 (1): 526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bove, Vincenzo, Platteau, Jean-Philippe, and Sekeris, Petros G.. 2017. “Political Repression in Autocratic Regimes.” Journal of Comparative Economics 45 (2): 410428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braithwaite, Jessica Maves, and Sudduth, Jun Koga. 2016. “Military Purges and the Recurrence of Civil Conflict.” Research & Politics 3 (1): 16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bremer, Stuart A. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2): 309341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bruce, Bueno de Mesquita, and Smith, Alastair. 2012. “Domestic Explanations of International Relations.” Annual Review of Political Science 15: 161181.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph, and Morrow, James. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Downs, George W.. 2006. “Intervention and Democracy.” International Organization 60 (3): 627649.Google Scholar
Carter, David B. 2015. “The Compellence Dilemma: International Disputes with Violent Groups.” International Studies Quarterly 59 (3): 461476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casper, Brett Allen, and Tyson, Scott A.. 2014. “Popular Protest and Elite Coordination in a Coup d’état.” The Journal of Politics 76 (2): 548564.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chyzh, Olga V., and Labzina, Elena. 2018. “Bankrolling Repression? Modeling Third-Party Influence on Protests and Repression.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (2): 312324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 1998. “On Economic Causes of Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 50 (4): 563573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croissant, Aurel, and Kuehn, David. 2009. “Patterns of Civilian Control of the Military in East Asia’s New Democracies.” Journal of East Asian Studies 9 (2): 187217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2007. “State Repression and Political Order.” Annual Review of Political Science 10: 123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, Hein E.. 2010. “Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.” American Political Science Review 104 (3): 430445.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Decalo, Samuel. 1976. Coups and Army Rule in Africa: Studies in Military Style. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Di Lonardo, Livio, and A. Tyson, Scott. 2019. “Political Instability and the Failure of Deterrence.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Dorsch, Michael T., and Maarek, Paul. 2018. “Rent Extraction, Revolutionary Threat, and Coups in Non-Democracies.” Journal of Comparative Economics 46 (4): 10821103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dragu, Tiberiu, and Lupu, Yonatan. 2017. “Collective Action and Constraints on Repression at the Endgame.” Comparative Political Studies 51 (8): 10421073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eguia, Jon X. 2017. “Regime Change.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88 (3): 577592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finkel, Evgeny, and Gehlbach, Scott. 2018. “The Tocqueville Paradox: When Does Reform Provoke Rebellion?” SSRN: 3202013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2007. “Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats.” Comparative Political Studies 40 (11): 12791301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph, and Frantz, Erica. 2018. How Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott. 2006. “The Consequences of Collective Action: An Incomplete-Contracts Approach.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (3): 802823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Sonin, Konstantin. 2014. “Government Control of the Media.” Journal of Public Economics 118: 163171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, Sonin, Konstantin, and Svolik, Milan W.. 2016. “Formal Models of Nondemocratic Politics.” Annual Review of Political Science 19: 565584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, Scott, and Keefer, Philip. 2012. “Private Investment and the Institutionalization of Collective Action in Autocracies: Ruling Parties and Legislatures.” The Journal of Politics 74 (2): 621635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giere, Ronald N. 1988. Explaining Science: A Cognitive Approach. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giere, Ronald N. 2004. “How Models Are Used to Represent Reality.” Philosophy of Science 71 (5): 42752.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Beardsley, Kyle. 2004. “Nosy Neighbors: Third-Party Actors in Central American Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (3): 379402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Hein E. 2000. “Fighting for Survival: The Fate of Leaders and the Duration of War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (5): 555579.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grier, Kevin B., and Tullock, Gordon. 1989. “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951–1980.” Journal of Monetary Economics 24 (2): 259276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, Herschell I. 1991. “A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections.” The American Economic Review 81 (4): 912921.Google Scholar
Hill, Daniel W., and Jones, Zachary M.. 2014. “An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression.” American Political Science Review 108 (3): 661687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hood, Steven J. 1996. “Political Change in Taiwan: The Rise of Kuomintang Factions.” Asian Survey 36 (5): 468482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, Xiaobo, and Lin, Gang. 2002. “The PRC View of Taiwan under Lee Teng-Hui.” American Asian Review 20 (1): 127.Google Scholar
Jackson, Karl D. 1989. Cambodia, 1975-1978: Rendezvous with Death. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kaminski, Marek M., Nalepa, Monika, and O’neill, Barry. 2006. “Normative and Strategic Aspects of Transitional Justice.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (3): 295302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiernan, Ben. 2002. The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power, and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-79. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Koga, Jun. 2011. “Where Do Third Parties Intervene? Third Parties’ Domestic Institutions and Military Interventions in Civil Conflicts.” International Studies Quarterly 55 (4): 11431166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kormendi, Roger C., and Meguire, Philip G. 1985. “Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics 16 (2): 141163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lai, Brian, and Slater, Dan. 2006. “Institutions of the Offensive: Domestic Sources of Dispute Initiation in Authoritarian Regimes, 1950–1992.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (1): 113126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Landa, Dimitri, and Tyson, Scott A.. 2017. “Coercive Leadership.” American Journal of Political Science 61 (3): 559574.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and Davis, David R.. 1997. “Domestic Political Vulnerability and International Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (6): 814834.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leon, Gabriel. 2013. “Soldiers or Politicians? Institutions, Conflict, and the Military’s Role in Politics.” Oxford Economic Papers 66 (2): 533556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leon, Gabriel. 2014. “Loyalty for Sale? Military Spending and Coups D’Etat.” Public Choice 159 (3–4): 363383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and , Lucan A. Way. 2006. “Linkage versus Leverage. Rethinking the International Dimension of Regime Change.” Comparative Politics 38 (4): 379400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2016. “Communication Technology and Protest.” The Journal of Politics 78 (1): 152166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2017. “Coordination, Learning, and Coups.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (1): 204234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorentzen, Peter, McMillan, John, and Wacziarg, Romain. 2008. “Death and Development.” Journal of Economic Growth 13 (2): 81124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyall, Jason, and Wilson, Isaiah. 2009. “Rage against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars.” International Organization 63 (1): 67106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMahon, R. Blake, and Slantchev, Branislav L.. 2015. “The Guardianship Dilemma: Regime Security through and from the Armed Forces.” American Political Science Review 109 (2): 297313.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montagnes, B. Pablo, and Wolton, Stephane. 2019. “Mass Purges: Top-Down Accountability in Autocracy.” American Political Science Review 113 (4): 10451059.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, Will H. 1995. “Action-Reaction or Rational Expectations? Reciprocity and the Domestic-International Conflict Nexus during the ‘Rhodesia Problem.’Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1): 129167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, Stephen J. 1999. Why Vietnam Invaded Cambodia: Political Culture and the Causes of War. Redwood City, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Nalepa, Monika. 2008. “To Punish the Guilty and Protect the Innocent: Comparing Truth Revelation Procedures.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 20 (2): 221245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nalepa, Monika. 2010a. “Captured Commitments: An Analytic Narrative of Transitions with Transitional Justice.” World Politics 62 (2): 341380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nalepa, Monika. 2010b. Skeletons in the Closet: Transitional Justice in Post-Communist Europe . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paine, Jack, and Tyson, Scott A.. 2020. “The Uses and Abuses of Formal Models in Political Science.” Chap. 11 in SAGE Handbook of Political Science: A Global Perspective, eds. Berg-Schlosser, Dirk, Badie, Bertrand, and Morlino, Leonardo. London: SAGE Publishing.Google Scholar
Quinlivan, James T. 1999. “Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East.” International Security 24 (2): 131165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsay, Kristopher W. 2017. “Information, Uncertainty, and War.” Annual Review of Political Science 20: 505527.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. “Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (1): 5573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, Emily Hencken. 2014. “Policy Disputes, Political Survival, and the Onset and Severity of State Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (1): 143168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, Emily Hencken, and Wolford, Scott. 2012. “Bargaining and the Effectiveness of International Criminal Regimes.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 24 (2): 149171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roessler, Philip. 2016. Ethnic Politics and State Power in Africa: The Logic of the Coup-Civil War Trap. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roessler, Philip, and Verhoeven, Harry. 2017. Why Comrades Go to War. Vol. 1. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rose-Ackerman, Susan. 2013. Corruption: A Study in Political Economy. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Schnakenberg, Keith E., and Fariss, Christopher J.. 2014. “Dynamic Patterns of Human Rights Practices.” Political Science Research and Methods 2 (1): 131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1999. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform? Contrasting Two Institutional Perspectives on Democracy and War.” International Organization 53 (2): 233266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi. 2014. “Mobilization, Repression, and Revolution: Grievances and Opportunities in Contentious Politics.” The Journal of Politics 76 (3): 621635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shadmehr, Mehdi, and Raphael, Boleslavsky. Forthcoming. “International Pressure, State Repression and the Spread of Protest.” The Journal of Politics.Google Scholar
Short, Philip. 2005. Pol Pot: Anatomy of a Nightmare. Stuttgart: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Sihanouk, Prince Norodom. 1980. War and Hope: The Case for Cambodia. New York: Pantheon.Google Scholar
Skaperdas, Stergios. 1996. “Contest Success Functions.” Economic Theory 7 (2): 283290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slocomb, Margaret. 2003. The People’s Republic of Kampuchea, 1979-1989: The Revolution After Pol Pot. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Silkworm Books.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 40 (1): 133153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1998. “International Crises and Domestic Politics.” American Political Science Review 92 (3): 623638.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 1991. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sonin, Konstantin. 2003. “Why the Rich May Favor Poor Protection of Property Rights.” Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4): 715731.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spaniel, William, and Smith, Bradley C.. 2015. “Sanctions, Uncertainty, and Leader Tenure.” International Studies Quarterly 59 (4): 735749.Google Scholar
Spaniel, William, and Taylor, Zachary. 2015. “Deterring Intervention: The Civil Origins of Nuclear Proliferation.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Sudduth, Jun Koga. 2017a. “Coup Risk, Coup-Proofing and Leader Survival.” Journal of Peace Research 54 (1): 315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, Jun Koga. 2017b. “Strategic Logic of Elite Purges in Dictatorships.” Comparative Political Studies 50 (13): 17681801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudduth, Jun Koga, and Bell, Curtis. 2018. “The Rise Predicts the Fall: How the Method of Leader Entry Affects the Method of Leader Removal in Dictatorships.” International Studies Quarterly 62 (1): 145159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2009. “Power Sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (2): 477494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2013. “Contracting on Violence: The Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and Military Intervention in Politics.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (5): 765794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tan, Alexander C. 2002. “The Transformation of the Kuomintang Party in Taiwan.” Democratization 9 (3): 149164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsai, Shih. 2005. Lee Teng-Hui and Taiwan’s Quest for Identity. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyson, Scott A. 2018. “The Agency Problem Underlying Repression.” The Journal of Politics 80 (4): 12971310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyson, Scott A., and Smith, Alastair. 2018. “Dual-Layered Coordination and Political Instability: Repression, Co-optation, and the Role of Information.” The Journal of Politics 80 (1): 4458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas C. 1980. The Scientific Image. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, T. Y. 2002. “Taiwan’s Foreign Relations under Lee Teng-Hui’s Rule, 1988-2000.” American Asian Review 20 (1): 71.Google Scholar
Wayman, Frank W., Singer, J. David, and Goertz, Gary. 1983. “Capabilities, Allocations, and Success in Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1816–1976.” International Studies Quarterly 27 (4): 497515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westad, Odd Arne. 2005. The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Times. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wintrobe, Ronald. 1990. “The Tinpot and the Totalitarian: An Economic Theory of Dictatorship.” American Political Science Review 84 (3): 849872.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wintrobe, Ronald. 2000. The Political Economy of Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Zhao, Suisheng. 1999. “Military Coercion and Peaceful Offence: Beijing’s Strategy of National Reunification with Taiwan.” Pacific Affairs 72 (4): 495512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Di Lonardo et al. supplementary material

Di Lonardo et al. supplementary material

Download Di Lonardo et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 308.7 KB