The 1980 U.S. suspension of grain sales to the Soviet Union illustrates the importance of the choice of conceptual framework for empirical analysis of international trade problems. A spatial equilibrium model of wheat and coarse grains trade assumes perfect substitution among exporting nations' commoditites by importers and, thus, precludes the embargo from having a large impact. The imperfect substitutability assumption of an Armington model results in larger consequences from the embargo. For small shocks, the Armington model better captures the rigidities characteristic of international grain markets. The spatial model provides insights on adjustments to large shocks, but rigidities persist in actual markets.

Suggested methods to reduce farm financial stress have included interest rate buy-downs and debt forgiveness. This study develops a method to estimate the proportion of individual farm financial stress attributable to an income problem, a leverage problem, and an interest rate problem. Of the Kansas Farm Management Association farms with a financial problem, 30 percent of the total financial problem is caused by an interest rate problem, 28 percent by a leverage problem, and 42 percent by an income problem. A reduction of leverage or interest rate to the level attained by the average nonstressed farms would make 31 percent and 32 percent of the stressed farms profitable, respectively. Therefore, in the short run, an interest rate buy-down or a debt reduction would be equally effective.

Risk analyses often require a measure of individual risk aversion. Here a procedure is presented to calculate risk aversion parameter ranges wherein individuals would exhibit preference among a set of risky prospects.

The pricing behavior of the Florida celery industry under the current federal marketing order was examined by analyzing the implied market structure of the industry using a model proposed by Appelbaum. Point estimates of the oligopoly power index suggest that some degree of price enhancement above that which would be characterized by a perfectly competitive market may have occurred. However, the bulk of statistical evidence suggests that the departure from marginal cost pricing implied by the industry's pricing behavior is not statistically significant.

The demand for and supply of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean exports is specified in a dynamic framework. Obtained results indicate differences in the export behavior of each product. U.S. corn exports are elastic, while U.S. soybean exports exhibit an inelastic response. For wheat, the derived elasticity of export demand had a positive sign. Hypothesis testing validated the dynamic structure of the estimated models in all markets. Stability properties were confirmed in export markets of corn and soybeans, but results were inconclusive for the wheat market. Adjustment coefficients indicate that exports and export prices do not adjust immediately to their equilibrium levels. Multiplier impacts indicate a stable path of convergence for all markets, with minimal impact of exogenous shocks on wheat and corn exports and export prices. Soybean export prices exhibit a significant response to changes in domestic export capacity, but minimal response to other exogenous shocks.

Concerns over declining farm numbers, shifts in farm size distribution, and associated infrastructural problems have led to a heightened awareness of structural considerations within policy making circles. Future policy decisions will have substantial structural consequences for the agricultural industry. Often, however, the indirect effects of grain pricing policies on the livestock sector have been overlooked in these policy decisions. The incorporation of price effects into a Markov chain analysis of pork farm size distributions and the simulation of those projections to the year 2000 under various price scenarios should provide some insight into the future structure of livestock farming in the South.

Concern over the effects of public policies based on misspecified econometric models motivates interest in a procedure to test, diagnose, and improve the specification of models that have been estimated with three-stage least squares. A test of system-wide specification based on Hausman's specification test is employed in a test of the a priori restrictions placed on the parameters of a structural model of the U.S. shrimp market. The null hypothesis of proper specification is rejected. After diagnosis via a comparison of unrestricted and restricted reduced forms and respecification, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected.

Forecast users and market analysts need quality forecast information to improve their decision-making abilities. When more than one forecast is available, the analyst can improve forecast accuracy by using a composite forecast. One of several approaches to forming composite forecasts is a Bayesian approach using matrix beta priors. This paper explains the matrix beta approach and applies it to three individual forecasts of U.S. hog prices. The Bayesian composite forecast is evaluated relative to composites made from simple averages, restricted least squares, and an adaptive weighting technique.

Off-flavor in catfish restricts farm marketings 10 to 45% depending on the season. The economic impact on society of this imposed supply restriction depends, in part, on the elasticity of demand for catfish. Econometric estimates based on disaggregated processing plant data indicate an elastic demand at the processor level but an inelastic demand at the farm level. Short-run social welfare gains from the elimination of off-flavor are estimated to equal 12.0% of farm revenues ($10.0 million in 1983). The inelastic demand for catfish at the farm level, however, means that most of the societal gains will accrue to individuals beyond the farm gate. Thus, an economic justification exists for public sector funding of off-flavor research.

A production frontier methodology is used to measure the overall efficiency of a sample of farms obtaining credit from the Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) compared to nonparticipants. The study did not find evidence that the efficiency of FmHA farms improved between 1981 and 1984. Results indicate that the overall efficiency of FmHA borrowers is associated with selected financial characteristics of the farms.

User fees have become a popular means of financing public services, including certain transportation facilities. The Water Resources Development Act of 1986 includes provisions for user fees to finance part of the costs of operations, maintenance, and new construction of the U.S. port system. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the welfare implications of this legislation. An analytical model is developed and used to estimate the impact of port user fees on grain and oilseed producers, consumers, and the government. The results of the analysis indicate that the user fee has a relatively small effect on producer welfare and that the efficiency gains resulting from the replacement of the government subsidy for port operations, maintenance, and new construction with a user fee are negligible.

In this study, two methods of entering and accessing dairy herd records are compared: the traditional mail-in Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) system and the Direct Access to Records by Telephone (DART) system, which provides more timely and convenient access to records. An evaluation of DART was carried out using mail survey responses from 117 DART users and telephone surveys of 40 randomly selected users. Results indicate that DART users are generally satisfied with the system and feel that it improves their herd management. Variations in use of the DART system by DART users are explained by herd, cost, and management variables. DART users and comparable non-DART, DHI users are compared with respect to gains in herd production efficiency. Results indicate that DART users made somewhat better gains in most efficiency measures but that the differences were generally not statistically significant.

Qualitative models can be used for decision making under uncertainty. This provides a useful framework for evaluating the models. If the costs for every action/state of nature combination are known, decisions made using a well-calibrated model would result in actual costs being close to expected costs. In addition, the actual cost can be compared to the cost of perfect foresight actions, giving a bound on the value of a better model. Application of these procedures is made using a logit model developed to predict Missouri country grain elevator bankruptcies.

A Diewert-flexible (dual) cost function was used to derive a system of conditional factor demand equations for Louisiana rice producers. Generalized Leontief cost and factor share equations were fitted for the 1955-87 period using Zellner's SURE system estimation procedure. The Aitken parameter estimates reveal that: (1) the optimal input mix of rice farmers varies with production scale, (2) the factor-augmenting technical change is labor and chemical saving but seed using, (3) pairwise input substitutions are limited, and (4) factor demands are own-price inelastic. An implication is that Louisiana rice farmers will not appreciably alter their factor utilizations when relative input prices change.

Vector autoregression was utilized to investigate dynamic relationships existing between prices of purebred bulls and prices of slaughter steers, utility cows, feeder calves, and cow-calf pairs. Results suggest purebred bull prices respond most quickly to an increase in utility cow prices (proxy for slaughter bull prices). Feeder calf prices exhibited the most pronounced positive effect on the price of herd sires, with a lagged response which took over two years to build.

Numerous studies have analyzed annual crop mix decisions in light of producer risk preferences. Few studies have focused on perennial crop mix decisions. This study attempts to identify not only the optimal mix of grapefruit and oranges for various riskaversion levels, but also optimal planting densities within each species. Experimental plot data from a grapefruit and orange spacing trial over the 1970-82 period were used in a MOTAD formulation to address optimal perennial crop mix and planting density decisions under different capital constraints. An examination of results suggests crop mix and planting density diversification within and across species of citrus as a means of reducing income variability.

Linear programming and stochastic farm growth simulation models are used to assess the impact of alternative enterprise selection, variation in farm income, inflation, and off-farm income on the growth of small, part-time farms in East Central Oklahoma. Results indicate that alternative rates of inflation or variation in farm income do not significantly impact the operation or expansion of part-time farming operations. Adoption of alternative enterprises on part-time farms can lead to full-time farming operations where expansion initially is aided through use of off-farm income. Small full-time operators could greatly enhance family income by obtaining off-farm employment and income.

The Agricultural Risk Management Simulator (ARMS) is a microcomputer program designed to help users evaluate strategies for managing yield and price risk in crop farming operations. Risk management strategies are defined by choices regarding crop mix, the purchase of multiple peril crop insurance, and the use of forward contracting. Probabilistic budgeting is used to determine the net cash flow probability distribution for each strategy considered. Flexibility with regard to both sources of probabilistic information and the form of yield and price probability distributions is a noteworthy feature of the program.