¹ This approach was first proposed by Timothy Colton. See Colton, , Commissars, Commanders, and Civilian Authority: The Structure of Soviet Military Politics (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1979).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

² See, e.g., Lepingwell, John W. R., “Soviet Civil-Military Relations and the August Coup,” World Politics 44 (July 1994)Google Scholar; and Meyer, Stephen M., “How the Threat (and the Coup) Collapsed: The Politicization of the Soviet Military,” International Security 16 (Winter 1991–92).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

³ For an excellent theoretical discussion of this point, see Glaser, Charles L., “Political Consequences of Military Strategy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models,” World Politics 44 (July 1994).Google Scholar

⁴ Posen, , The Sources of Military Doctrine (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984), 58.Google Scholar

⁵ Kenneth Waltz makes the same point. See Waltz, , Theory of International Politics (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1979), 118.Google Scholar

⁶ Posen (fn. 4), 74–75.

⁷ Rosen, , Winning the Next War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991).Google Scholar

⁸ Civilian incentives to alter military policy were even higher in the Khrushchev period (1954–64); as the model would predict, Khrushchev was infamous for his “interference” in strategic planning. See Wolfe, Thomas W., Soviet Strategy at the Crossroads (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1964)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. The current study focuses on the Brezhnev period because there is less agreement on the role of the civilian leadership in setting military policy in that period.

⁹ Brezhnev, Leonid, “For Strengthening the Solidarity of Communists, for a New Upswing in the Anti-Imperialist Struggle” (Speech to International Conference of Communist and Workers' Parties, Pravda, June 8, 1969, trans, in Current Digest of the Soviet Press 21 [July 2, 1969]).Google Scholar

¹⁰ Jackson, William D., “Soviet Images of the U.S. as Nuclear Adversary, 1969–1979,” World Politics 33 (July 1981), 625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

¹¹ Posen (fn. 4), 75.

¹² Prominent works by military-mission theorists include Berman, Robert P. and Baker, John C., Soviet Strategic Forces: Requirements and Responses (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1984)Google Scholar; Yost, David S., Soviet Ballistic Missile Defense and the Western Alliance (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1988)Google Scholar; and Meyer, Stephen M., Soviet Theater Nuclear Forces, Adelphi Papers no. 187–88 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1984)Google Scholar, pts. 1, 2.

¹³ The Soviet use of the term “doctrine” was significantly different from Western definitions. In Western usage, doctrine refers to a strategic or tactical approach; in Soviet usage, it referred to fundamental issues of grand strategy.

¹⁴ On the role of the general staff, see Currie, Kenneth, “Soviet General Staffs New Role,” Problems of Communism 33 (March-April 1984)Google Scholar; and Meyer, Stephen M., “Civilian and Military Influence in Managing the Arms Race in the U.S.S.R.,” in Art, Robert J., Davis, Vincent, and Huntington, Samuel P., eds., Reorganizing America's Defense (London: Pergamon-Brassey's, 1985).Google Scholar

¹⁵ In principle, most military-mission theorists argue that organizational constraints are included in the military-mission model. In practice, however, consideration of these organizational constraints is usually limited to recognition of Soviet technological limitations. See, e.g., Berman and Baker (fn. 12).

¹⁶ Raymond Garthoff suggests a model of the Soviet military policy process very similar to the process of the balance-of-power model, with its emphasis on the role of the political leadership in policy change and on the importance of foreign developments as the motivation for such policy change. See Garthoff, Raymond L., “Mutual Deterrence, Parity and Strategic Arms Limitation in Soviet Policy,” in Leebaert, Derek, ed., Soviet Military Thinking (London: Allen and Unwin, 1981)Google Scholar. Garthoff s model is not discussed here because his interpretation of the content of Soviet strategy is incompatible with actual Soviet policy. For a complete discussion, see Kaufman, Stuart, “The Politics of Soviet Strategic Defense: Political Strategies, Organizational Politics, and Soviet Strategic Thought” (Ph.D. diss., University of Michigan, 1991).Google Scholar

¹⁷ Regarding the change in Soviet strategy, see Hines, John G., Petersen, Phillip A., and Trulock, Notra III, “Soviet Military Theory from 1945–2000: Implications for NATO,” Washington Quarterly 9 (Fall 1986)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and MccGwire, Michael, Military Objectives in Soviet Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987).Google Scholar

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²⁰ Hines, Petersen, and Trulock (fn. 17) remains the best summary of that evidence. The General Staff Academy lectures are published in Wardak, Ghulam Dastagir, The Voroshilov Lectures., vol. 1, ed. Turbiville, Graham Hall Jr. (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, 1989).Google Scholar

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²⁴ Some classic discussions of organization theory include Allison, Graham T., “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” American Political Science Review 63 (September 1969)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Cyert, Richard and March, James, A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1963)Google Scholar; and March, James and Simon, Herbert, Organizations (New York: John Wiley, 1958)Google Scholar. Some studies that emphasize the organizational explanation of Soviet military policy are Warner, Edward L. III, The Military in Contemporary Soviet Politics (New York: Praeger, 1977)Google Scholar; Payne, Samuel B., The Soviet Union and SALT (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1980)Google Scholar; and Herspring, Dale, The Soviet High Command, 1967–89: Personalities and Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990).Google Scholar

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²⁶ Posen (fn. 4), 47–50.

²⁷ Huntington, , The Common Defense (New York: Columbia University Press, 1961)Google Scholar. For a roughly analogous discussion of Soviet military policy, see Snyder, Jack, “The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism?” International Security 12 (Winter 1987–88).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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³⁷ This implication is noted by Herspring (fn. 24), 58.

³⁸ Kosygin, Aleksei N., “On a Leninist Course,” Pravda, March 7, 1967Google Scholar, trans, in Current Digest of the Soviet Press 19 (March 29, 1967), 3.Google Scholar

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⁴² Sokolovskii, , ed., Soviet Military Strategy, 3d ed. (1968)Google Scholar, trans, and ed. Scott, Harriett Fast (London: Macdonald and Jane's, 1975)Google Scholar, 187.

⁴³ Ibid., 195.

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⁵⁹ Both Yazov and Shevardnadze clearly made these arguments in order to defend the new thinking about foreign affairs, which eliminated this contradiction. Nevertheless, they would not have made that particular argument in favor of the new thinking unless they also believed it.

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⁶² Meyer (fn. 2); Currie (fn. 14), 39.

⁶³ Burlatskii, , “Brezhnev and the End of the Thaw,” Literaturnaia Gazeta, September 14, 1988Google Scholar, in FBis-SOV, September 19, 1988, 71.

⁶⁴ The classic account is Wolfe (fn. 8).

⁶⁵ See Herspring (fn. 24), 75.

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⁶⁸ See Wolfe, Thomas W., The SALT Experience (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1979), 21.Google Scholar

⁶⁹ Payne (fn. 24), 7.

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⁷⁴ Krylov, Nikolai, “Raketnye voiska strategicheskogo naznacheniia,” Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, no. 7 (July 1967).Google Scholar

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⁷⁶ Zemskov, V. I., “Wars of the Modern Era,” Military Thought, no. 5 (May 1969)Google Scholar, makes the argument about crisis instability; Anureyev, I. I., Oruzhie protivoraketnoi i prottvokosmicheskoi oborony (Weapons of antirocket and antispace defense) (Moscow: Voenizdat, 1971)Google Scholar, discusses cost effectiveness.

⁷⁷ Based on interviews with former Soviet general staff officers who worked on ABM issues, Moscow, June-July 1992.

⁷⁸ Sokolovskii (fn. 42), 284–85.

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⁸⁰ Of course, the model cannot explain the views of every actor. Marshal Bagramyan, the commander of Rear Services, for example, expressed optimism about the prospects for ABM, whereas Marshal Moskalenko, the inspector general (and former PVO officer), was more pessimistic. Neither stand clearly accords with any bureaucratic interest. See Bagramyan, I. Kh., “Bagramyan Speech,” in FBIS-SOV, February 23, 1967Google Scholar, CC5; Moskalenko, K. S., “Prazdnik pobedy,” Trud, May 9, 1968.Google Scholar

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⁸³ See Payne (fn. 24) for a discussion of the role of academicians in general.

⁸⁴ Interview (fn. 81).

⁸⁵ Ibid.

⁸⁶ Brezhnev (fn. 36), 1:541.

⁸⁷ Brezhnev (fn. 39), 11.

⁸⁸ Reprinted in Kosygin, Alexei N., Selected Speeches and Writings (New York: Pergamon, 1981), 66.Google Scholar

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⁹⁰ Jack Snyder (fn. 27) argues that such a “logrolled coalition” best explains detente under Khrushchev and Brezhnev.

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