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Reduced Solar Activity Favors Twin Maternities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 March 2012

Vladimir N. Melnikov*
Affiliation:
Institute of Physiology, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
*
Address for Correspondence: Vladimir N. Melnikov, Institute of Physiology. 4 Timakov Str., Novosibirsk, 630117, Russia. E-mail: mevlanic@yandex.ru

Abstract

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Mechanisms underlying effects of physical factors on twin births are unclear. The present work studied an association between monthly and yearly multiple birth rates (MBRs) in the Novosibirsk region, south-west Siberia, in relation to solar activity (sunspot numbers) and geomagnetic activity (Ap index) from 1957 to 2008. The difference was verified by comparing the yearly MBR observed in 3-year peaks (M = 7.36, SD = 0.33 per 1,000 births) and 3-year troughs (M = 8.10, SD = 0.31 per 1,000 births, p < .001) of an 11-year solar cycle. An inverse correlation (r = –.60, p < .001) was found between sunspot numbers and MBR for a lag of 1 year. Cross-spectral analysis of a 52-year time series established a common signal with the period of 10.5 years, as well as high coherence (K(2) = 0.87). The multiple regression analysis revealed a significant interaction of solar and geomagnetic effects upon the frequency of twin maternities. The results show that elevated solar activity within the 11-year cycle coinciding with the time of conception inhibits multiple births in a manner depending on geomagnetic activity. It is hypothesized that the likely mechanism underlying the association is early fetal loss induced by solar radiation/flux and its terrestrial mediators.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012