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Middle Eastern views of the Gulf conflict and its aftermath

  • George Joffe

Extract

There can be little doubt that the conflict between the UN-authorized and US-led Multinational Coalition and Iraq at the start of 1991, as a result of the Iraqi Ba'athist regime's decision in August 1990 to invade and annex Kuwait, has produced profound changes in the political and diplomatic environment of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as in Mashriqi and Maghribi political attitudes. The new atmosphere of confidence amongst the governments and peoples of the Arab states of the Gulf is clear evidence of these changes, as is the dejection felt in capitals such as Amman, Sanaa and Tunis where government support for the Coalition was less than wholehearted.

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1 Peretz, D., ‘The Impact of the Gulf War on Israeli and Palestinian Political Attitudes’, Journal of Palestine Studies, 21 (Autumn, 1991), pp. 20–1.

2 Keesings Contemporary Archives, 37, 2(supp.) (Feb. 1991), p. 38076; Economist Intelligence Unit, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula (London, 1991), p. 15.

3 Halliday, F., Cold War, Third World (London, 1989), pp. 159–62.

4 Halliday, Cold War, pp. 19–23.

5 Cordesman, A. H., The Gulf and the West: Strategic Relations and Military Realities (Boulder and London, 1988), pp. 7074.

6 Cordesman, The Gulf and the West, pp. 15–21.

7 Hiro, D., Inside the. Middle East (London, 1982), pp. 249250.

8 Ajamai, F., The Arab Predicament: Arab Political Thought and Practice since 1967 (Cambridge and London, 1981), p. 51.

9 Ismael, T. Y., International Relations of the Contemporary Middle East (Syracuse, 1986), pp. 184185.

10 Karsh, E. and Rautsi, I., Saddam Hussain: A Political Biography (London, 1991), p. 160.

11 Cordesman, The Gulf and the West, p. 331.

12 Economist Intelligence Unit, Syria, Country Profile 1990–91 (London, 1990), p. 8.

13 Day, J. A. (ed.), The Annual Register 1987 (London, 1988), p. 203.

14 Day, J. A. (ed.), The Annual Register 1988 (London, 1989), p. 211.

15 Day, J. A. (ed.), The Annual Register 1989 (London, 1990), p. 207.

16 Day (ed.), The Annual Register 1989, p. 202.

17 The terminology is drawn from Little, R., ‘Deconstructing the Balance of Power: Two Traditions of Thought’, Review of International Studies, 15 (April 1989), pp. 9297.

18 Vasiliev, A., ‘Soviet Policy towards the Arab World”, Arab Affairs, 10 (Summer 1990), p. 13.

19 See Webb, M. C. and Krasner, S. D., ‘Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Empirical Assessment’, Review of International Studies, 15 (April 1989), p. 183.

20 Day (ed.), The Annual Register 1988, pp. 203–5.

21 International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 1990–1991 (London, 1991), pp. 97–122.

22 Henderson, S., Instant Empire: Saddam Hussain's Ambitionsfor Iraq (San Francisco, 1991), pp. 222223.

23 Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), 21 January 1991; B4.

24 Joffe, E. G. H., ‘Developments in Iraq since the Ceasefire’, in Davies, C. (ed.), After the War: Iraq, Iran and the Arab Gulf, (Chichester, 1990), pp. 229231.

25 Ismael, International Relations, pp. 46, 59—64.

26 Craig, J., ‘Changes in Arab Nationalism: An Outsider's View’, Arab Affairs, 11 (Summer 1990), p. 9.

27 Joffe, E. G. H., ‘The GCC Comes of Age’, Arab Affairs, 9 (Spring-Summer 1989), p. 31 and Graz, L., ‘The GCC as a Model? Sets and Sub-Sets in the Arab Equation’, in Davies, C. (ed.), After the War: Iraq, Iran and the Arab Gulf, (Chichester, 1990), p. 13. See also G. Nonneman ‘Iraqui-GCC Relations: Roots of Change and future prospects’, ibid, pp. 29–32.

28 Bulloch, J. and Morris, H., Saddam's War (London, 1991), pp. 156157.

29 Joffe, E. G. H., ‘Political Violence and the International System: A View from the South’, in Thomas, C. and Saravanamuttu, P. (eds.), Conflict and Consensus in South/North Security (Cambridge and London, 1989), pp. 164168.

30 See Ajami, The Arab Dilemma, pp. 38–9.

31 A classic statement of this view was provided by Sir James Craig in Middle East International, 383 14 September 1990,20–1.

32 G. Karmi, ‘Arab Reactions to the Gulf Crisis’, Middle East International, 384 28 September 1990, p. 20.

33 Joffe, E. G. H., ‘North African Responses to the Gulf Crisis’, in Economist Intelligence Unit, North Africa, Economic Structure and Analysis (London, 1991), pp. 89.

34 Britannica, Encyclopaedia, Britdnnica World Data Annual 1991 (Chicago, 1991), p. 410.

35 Economist Intelligence Unit, Jordan, Country Profile 1991–92 (London, 1991), p. 5, 8.

36 See Peretz, D., ‘The Impact of the Gulf War on Israeli and Palestinian Attitudes’, Journal of Palestinian Studies, 21 (Autumn 1991), pp. 1730.

37 Joffe, ‘North African Responses to the Gulf Crisis’, p. 7.

38 For a detailed account of the background and the events of the Gulf crisis, see Joffe, E. G. H., ‘Prelude to War in the Gulf’ and ‘Iraq and Kuwait: The Invasion, the War and the AFtermath’, in Chapman, S. (ed.), The Middle East and North Africa 1992 (London, 1992).

39 Joffe, ‘North African Responses to the Gulf Crisis’, p. 9.

40 This account has been pieced together from press reports and interviews. The main press sources have been Middle East Economic Digest, Middle East Economic Survey, Middle East International, the Guardian, the Financial Times, Le Monde and al-Khalij.

41 Middle East Economic Digest (London), January-April 1991, and Middle East International (London), January-April 1991.

42 Joffe, E. G. H., ‘The Domestic Consequences of the Gulf Conflict’, Economist Intelligence Unit, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula: Economic Structure and Analysis (London, 1991), pp. 513.

43 Middle East Economic Digest, 35 (20 December 1991).

44 Day, J. A. (ed.), Keesings Contemporary Archives, 37, 2(supp.) (Feb. 1991), p. 38066.

45 Joffe, E. G. H., Bankrupting the Gulf: The Economic Consequences of the United Nations War against Iraq on the Gulf States (London, 1991), contains a detailed breakdown of the reported costs. Further details can be found in unpublished papers by Paul Barker Associates, ‘Facing Reconstruction in Kuwait and Iraq’, and Henry Azzam, ‘Postwar Economic Outlook in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, given at ‘Beyond the Crisis: The Gulf in the 1990s’, a conference on 9–10 May 1991 at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House (London).

46 Le Monde, 8 September 1992.

47 Details of the border issue are given in Schofield, R., Kuwait and Iraq: Historical Claims and Territorial Disputes (London, 1991).

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Middle Eastern views of the Gulf conflict and its aftermath

  • George Joffe

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