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Radiocarbon—A Direct Calculation of the Period of the Grand Trend

  • Israel Carmi (a1), Ziv Sirkes (a1) and Mordeckai Magaritz (a1)

Extract

A major collective effort was made to develop a data base for establishing the relationship between 14C and calendric ages (Stuiver, 1982). The early “cosmic schwung” fit between the two ages (Suess, 1970a, p 310) and the 10,350 yr period of the grand trend (Suess, 1970b, p 596) have recently been replaced by the period of 12,100 yr (Suess, 1980). The period of the grand trend was estimated by correlating the data with an a priori postulated sine function (Suess, 1970, p 596), or more recently a polynomial fit of the sixth degree was used (Klein et al, 1982). In the detrended data, periods (wiggles) of between 2400 yr and 104 yr were identified by conventional time series analysis. This approach could not be used to estimate the period of the grand trend, because the time series includes less than one cycle, whereas several cycles are required in order to get a meaningful result.

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References

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Barrodale, I and Erickson, R E, 1980b, Algorithms for least-squares linear prediction and maximum entropy spectral analysis—Part II: Fortran program: Geophysics, v 45, p 433446.
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Stuiver, M, 1982, A high-precision calibration of the ad radiocarbon time scale: Radiocarbon, v 24, p 126.
Suess, H E, 1970a, Bristlecone pine calibration of the radiocarbon time scale 5300 bc to the present, in Olsson, I U, ed, Radiocarbon variations and absolute chronology, Internatl radiocarbon conf, 7th, Proc: Stockholm, Almqvist & Wiksell-Gebers Forlag AB, p 303313.
Suess, H E, 1970b, The three causes of the secular carbon-14 fluctuations, their amplitudes and time constants, in Olsson, I U, ed, Radiocarbon variations and absolute chronology, Internatl radiocarbon conf, 7th, Proc: Stockholm, Almqvist & Wiksell-Gebers Forlag AB, p 595606.
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Ulrych, T J and Bishop, T N, 1975, Maximum entropy spectral analysis and autoregressive decomposition: Rev Geophys Space Physics, v 13, p 183200.

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