Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Secular trends in the prevalence of major and subthreshold depression among 55–64-year olds over 20 years

  • Hans W. Jeuring (a1) (a2), Hannie C. Comijs (a1) (a2), Dorly J. H. Deeg (a2), Max L. Stek (a1) (a2), Martijn Huisman (a2) (a3) and Aartjan T. F. Beekman (a1) (a2)...

Abstract

Background

Studying secular trends in the exposure to risk and protective factors of depression and whether these trends are associated with secular trends in the prevalence of depression is important to estimate future healthcare demands and to identify targets for prevention.

Methods

Three birth cohorts of 55–64-year olds from the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam were examined using identical methods in 1992 (n = 944), 2002 (n = 964) and 2012 (n = 957). A two-stage screening design was used to identify subthreshold depression (SUBD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify secular trends in depression prevalence and to identify factors from the biopsychosocial domains of functioning that were associated with these trends.

Results

Compared with 1992, MDD became more prevalent in 2002 (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.10–3.28, p = 0.022) and 2012 (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.03–3.14, p = 0.039). This was largely attributable to an increase in the prevalence of chronic diseases and functional limitations. Socioeconomic and psychosocial improvements, including an increase in labor market participation, social support and mastery, hampered MDD rates to rise more and were also associated with a 32% decline of SUBD-rates in 2012 as compared with 2002 (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48–0.96, p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Among late middle-aged adults, there is a substantial net increase of MDD, which is associated with deteriorating physical health. If morbidity and disability continue to increase, a further expansion of MDD rates may be expected. Improving socioeconomic and psychosocial conditions may benefit public health, as these factors were protective against a higher prevalence of both MDD and SUBD.

Copyright

Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: H. W. Jeuring, MD, E-mail: h.jeuring@vumc.nl

References

Hide All
Beekman, A, Deeg, DJ, Van Limbeek, J, Braam, AW, De Vries, MZ and Van Tilburg, W (1997) Criterion validity of the center for epidemiologic studies depression scale (CES-D): results from a community-based sample of older subjects in the Netherlands. Psychological Medicine 27, 231235.
Beekman, AT, Deeg, DHJ, van Tilburg, T, Smit, JH, Hooijer, C, and van Tilburg, W (1995) Major and minor depression in later life: a study of prevalence and risk factors. Journal of Affective Disorders 36, 6575.
Berner, J, Aartsen, M, Wahlberg, M and Elmståhl, S (2016) A cross-national and longitudinal study on predictors in starting and stopping internet use (2001–2013) by Swedish and Dutch older adults 66 years and. Gerontechnology 14, 157168.
Broese van Groenou, MI and Deeg, DJH (2010) Formal and informal social participation of the ‘young-old’ in the Netherlands in 1992 and 2002. Ageing and Society 30, 445465.
Cole, MG and Dendukuri, N (2003) Risk factors for depression among elderly community subjects: a systematic review and meta-analysis. American Journal of Psychiatry 160, 11471156.
Compton, WM, Conway, KP, Stinson, FS and Grant, BF (2006) Changes in the prevalence of major depression and comorbid substance Use disorders in the United States between 1991–1992 and 2001–2002. American Journal of Psychiatry 163, 21412147.
Crimmins, EM and Beltran-Sanchez, H (2011) Mortality and morbidity trends: is there compression of morbidity? Journals of Gerontology – Series B Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 66, 7586.
Crimmins, EM and Saito, Y (2001) Trends in healthy life expectancy in the United States, 1970–1990: gender, racial, and educational differences. Social Science & Medicine 52, 16291641.
de Graaf, R, ten Have, M, van Gool, C and van Dorsselaer, S (2012) Prevalence of mental disorders and trends from 1996 to 2009. Results from the Netherlands mental health survey and incidence study-2. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 47, 203213.
de Jong-Gierveld, J and Kamphuis, F (1985) The development of a Rasch-type loneliness scale. Applied Psychological Measurement 9, 289299.
Deeg, D, Knipscheer, C, Van Tilburg, W (eds) (1993) Autonomy and well-being in the aging population: concepts and design of the longitudinal aging study Amsterdam. In NIG Trend Studies No. 7.. Bunnik, the Netherlands: Netherlands Institute of Gerontology.
Den Dulk, CJ, Van De Stadt, H and Vliegen, JM (1992) A new measure for degree of urbanization: the address density of the surrounding area. Maandstatistiek van de bevolking (The Hague, Netherlands: 1982) 40, 1427.
Eaton, WW, Kalaydjian, A, Scharfstein, DO, Mezuk, B and Ding, Y (2007) Prevalence and incidence of depressive disorder: the Baltimore ECA follow-up, 1981–2004. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 116, 182188.
Engel, GL (1980) The clinical application of the biopsychosocial model. American Journal of Psychiatry 137, 535544.
Fiske, A, Wetherell, JL and Gatz, M (2009) Depression in older adults. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology 5, 363389.
Flegal, KM, Flegal, KM, Carroll, MD, Carroll, MD, Ogden, CL, Ogden, CL, Curtin, LR and Curtin, LR (2010) Prevalence and trends in obesity Among US adults, 1999–2008. JAMA 303, 235241.
Folstein, MF, Folstein, SE and McHugh, PR (1975) ‘Mini-mental state’. A practical method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician. Journal of Psychiatric Research 12, 189198.
Fombonne, E (1994) Increased rates of depression: update of epidemiological findings and analytical problems. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 90, 145156.
Geiss, LS, Wang, J, Cheng, YJ, Thompson, TJ, Barker, L, Li, Y, Albright, AL and Gregg, EW (2014) Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980–2012. JAMA 312, 12181226.
Gregg, EW, Cheng, YJ, Cadwell, BL, Imperatore, G, Williams, DE, Flegal, KM, Narayan, KM and Williamson, DF (2005) Secular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in US adults. JAMA 293, 18681874.
Hawthorne, G, Goldney, R and Taylor, AW (2008) Depression prevalence: is it really increasing? Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 42, 606616.
Hoogendijk, E, van Groenou, MB, van Tilburg, T and Deeg, D (2008) Educational differences in functional limitations: comparisons of 55–65-year-olds in the Netherlands in 1992 and 2002. International Journal of Public Health 53, 281289.
Hoogendijk, EO, Deeg, DJH, Poppelaars, J, van der Horst, M, Broese van Groenou, MI, Comijs, HC, Pasman, HRW, van Schoor, NM, Suanet, B, Thomése, F, van Tilburg, TG, Visser, M and Huisman, M (2016) The longitudinal aging study Amsterdam: cohort update 2016 and major findings. European Journal of Epidemiology 31, 927945.
Huisman, M, Poppelaars, J, van der Horst, M, Beekman, ATF, Brug, J, van Tilburg, TG and Deeg, DJH (2011) Cohort profile: the longitudinal aging study Amsterdam. International Journal of Epidemiology 40, 868876.
Hunt, SM, McEwen, J and McKenna, SP (1985) Measuring health status: a new tool for clinicians and epidemiologists. Journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners 35, 185188.
Jeuring, HW, Huisman, M, Comijs, HC, Stek, ML and Beekman, ATF (2016) The long-term outcome of subthreshold depression in later life. Psychological Medicine 46, 28552865.
Joyce, PR, Oakley-Browne, MA, Wells, JE, Bushnell, JA and Hornblow, AR (1990) Birth cohort trends in major depression: increasing rates and earlier onset in New Zealand. Journal of Affective Disorders 18, 8389.
Kasen, S, Cohen, P, Berenson, K, Chen, H and Dufur, R (2005) Dual work and family roles and depressive symptoms in two birth cohorts of women. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 40, 300307.
Kasen, S, Cohen, P, Chen, H and Castille, D (2003) Depression in adult women: age changes and cohort effects. American Journal of Public Health 93, 20612066.
Kessler, R, Demler, O, Frank, R, Olfson, M, Pincus, H, Walters, E, Wang, P, Wells, K and Zaslavsky, A (2005) Prevalence and treatment of mental disorders, 1990 to 2003. New England Journal of Medicine 352, 25152523.
Kriegsman, DMW, Penninx, BWJH, Van Eijk, JTM, Boeke, AJP and Deeg, DJH (1996) Self-reports and general practitioner information on the presence of chronic diseases in community dwelling elderly. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49, 14071417.
Lee, I-M, Shiroma, EJ, Lobelo, F, Puska, P, Blair, SN, Katzmarzyk, PT and Lancet Physical Activity Series Working Group (2012) Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy. Lancet 380, 219229.
Lopez, AD, Mathers, CD, Ezzati, M, Jamison, DT and Murray, CJL (2006) Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet 367, 17471757.
Luteijn, F, Starren, J and Van Dijk, H (1975) Manual Dutch Personality Questionnaire (DPQ). Lisse, the Netherlands: Swets en Zeitlinger.
Mannino, DM and Buist, AS (2007) Global burden of COPD: risk factors, prevalence, and future trends. Lancet 370, 765773.
McWhinnie, JR (1981) Disability assessment in population surveys: results of the O.E.C.D. Common development effort. Revue d'epidemiologie et de Sante Publique 29, 413419.
Meeks, TW, Vahia, IV, Lavretsky, H, Kulkarni, G and Jeste, DV (2011) A tune in ‘a minor’ can ‘b major’: a review of epidemiology, illness course, and public health implications of subthreshold depression in older adults. Journal of Affective Disorders 129, 126142.
Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (1989) Health Interview Questionnaire. Heerlen, the Netherlands: CBS.
Pearlin, LI and Schooler, C (1978) The structure of coping. Journal of Health and Social Behavior 19, 221.
Penninx, BWJH, Deeg, DJH, Van Eijk, JTM, Beekman, ATF and Guralnik, JM (2000) Changes in depression and physical decline in older adults: a longitudinal perspective. Journal of Affective Disorders 61, 112.
Peri-Rotem, N (2016) Religion and fertility in Western Europe: trends across cohorts in Britain, France and the Netherlands. European Journal of Population 32, 231265.
Radloff, LS (1977) The CES-D scale: a self report depression scale for research in the general. Applied Psychological Measurement 1, 385401.
Raho, E, van Oostrom, SH, Visser, M, Huisman, M, Zantinge, EM, Smit, HA, Verschuren, WMM, Hulsegge, G and Picavet, HSJ (2015) Generation shifts in smoking over 20 years in two Dutch population-based cohorts aged 20–100 years. BMC Public Health 15, 142.
Rice, JP, Neuman, RJ, Saccone, NL, Corbett, J, Rochberg, N, Hesselbrock, V, Bucholz, KK, McGuffin, P and Reich, T (2003) Age and birth cohort effects on rates of alcohol dependence. Alcoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research 27, 9399.
Richter, M, Moor, I and van Lenthe, FJ (2012) Explaining socioeconomic differences in adolescent self-rated health: the contribution of material, psychosocial and behavioural factors. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 66, 691697.
Robins, LN, Helzer, JE, Croughan, J and Ratcliff, KS (1981) National institute of mental health diagnostic interview schedule. Its history, characteristics, and validity. Archives of General Psychiatry 38, 381389.
Ryan, LH, Smith, J, Antonucci, TC and Jackson, JS (2012) Cohort differences in the availability of informal caregivers: are the boomers at risk? Gerontologist 52, 177188.
Satizabal, CL, Beiser, AS, Chouraki, V, Chêne, G, Dufouil, C and Seshadri, S (2016) Incidence of dementia over three decades in the Framingham heart study. New England Journal of Medicine 374, 523532.
Simpson, KRS, Meadows, GN, Frances, AJ and Patten, SB (2012) Is mental health in the Canadian population changing over time? Canadian Journal of Psychiatry 57, 324331.
Sonnenberg, CM, Deeg, DJ, Comijs, HC, van Tilburg, W and Beekman, AT (2008) Trends in antidepressant use in the older population: results from the LASA-study over a period of 10 years. Journal of Affective Disorders 111, 299305.
Spiers, N, Brugha, TS, Bebbington, P, McManus, S, Jenkins, R and Meltzer, H (2012) Age and birth cohort differences in depression in repeated cross-sectional surveys in England: the national psychiatric morbidity surveys, 1993 to 2007. Psychological Medicine 42, 20472055.
Srole, L and Fischer, AK (1980) The midtown Manhattan longitudinal study vs ‘the mental paradise lost’ doctrine. A controversy joined. Archives of General Psychiatry 37, 209221.
Stel, VS, Smit, JH, Pluijm, SMF, Visser, M, Deeg, DJH and Lips, P (2004) Comparison of the LASA physical activity questionnaire with a 7-day diary and pedometer. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 57, 252258.
Suanet, B, Van Tilburg, TG and Van Groenou, MIB (2013) Nonkin in older adults’ personal networks: more important among later cohorts? Journals of Gerontology – Series B Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 68, 633643.
Sullivan, PF, Neale, MC and Kendler, KS (2000) Genetic epidemiology of major depression: review and meta-analysis. American Journal of Psychiatry 157, 15521562.
Twisk, J (2007) Inleiding in de toegepaste biostatistiek (Introduction to Applied Biostatistics). 1st edn. Maarssen, the Netherlands: Elsevier Gezondheidszorg.
van Oostrom, SH, Gijsen, R, Stirbu, I, Korevaar, JC, Schellevis, FG, Picavet, HSJ and Hoeymans, N (2016) Time trends in prevalence of chronic diseases and multimorbidity not only due to aging: data from general practices and health surveys. PLoS ONE 11, e0160264.
van Tilburg, T (1998) Losing and gaining in old age: changes in personal network size and social support in a four-year longitudinal study. Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 53, S313S323.
Vink, D, Aartsen, M and Schoevers, R (2008) Risk factors for anxiety and depression in the elderly: a review. Journal of Affective Disorders 106, 2944.
Visser, M, Launer, LJ, Deurenberg, P and Deeg, DJ (1999) Past and current smoking in relation to body fat distribution in older men and women. Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 54, M293M298.
Vos, T, Flaxman, AD, Naghavi, M, Lozano, R, Michaud, C, Ezzati, M, Shibuya, K, Salomon, JA, Abdalla, S, Aboyans, V, Abraham, J, Ackerman, I, Aggarwal, R, Ahn, SY, Ali, MK, Alvarado, M, Anderson, HR, Anderson, LM, Andrews, KG, Atkinson, C, Baddour, LM, Bahalim, AN, Barker-Collo, S, Barrero, LH, Bartels, DH, Basáñez, M-G, Baxter, A, Bell, ML, Benjamin, EJ, Bennett, D, Bernabé, E, Bhalla, K, Bhandari, B, Bikbov, B, Bin Abdulhak, A, Birbeck, G, Black, JA, Blencowe, H, Blore, JD, Blyth, F, Bolliger, I, Bonaventure, A, Boufous, S, Bourne, R, Boussinesq, M, Braithwaite, T, Brayne, C, Bridgett, L, Brooker, S, Brooks, P, Brugha, TS, Bryan-Hancock, C, Bucello, C, Buchbinder, R, Buckle, G, Budke, CM, Burch, M, Burney, P, Burstein, R, Calabria, B, Campbell, B, Canter, CE, Carabin, H, Carapetis, J, Carmona, L, Cella, C, Charlson, F, Chen, H, Cheng, AT-A, Chou, D, Chugh, SS, Coffeng, LE, Colan, SD, Colquhoun, S, Colson, KE, Condon, J, Connor, MD, Cooper, LT, Corriere, M, Cortinovis, M, de Vaccaro, KC, Couser, W, Cowie, BC, Criqui, MH, Cross, M, Dabhadkar, KC, Dahiya, M, Dahodwala, N, Damsere-Derry, J, Danaei, G, Davis, A, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Dellavalle, R, Delossantos, A, Denenberg, J, Derrett, S, Des Jarlais, DC, Dharmaratne, SD, Dherani, M, Diaz-Torne, C, Dolk, H, Dorsey, ER, Driscoll, T, Duber, H, Ebel, B, Edmond, K, Elbaz, A, Ali, SE, Erskine, H, Erwin, PJ, Espindola, P, Ewoigbokhan, SE, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, V, Felson, DT, Ferrari, A, Ferri, CP, Fèvre, EM, Finucane, MM, Flaxman, S, Flood, L, Foreman, K, Forouzanfar, MH, Fowkes, FG, Franklin, R, Fransen, M, Freeman, MK, Gabbe, BJ, Gabriel, SE, Gakidou, E, Ganatra, HA, Garcia, B, Gaspari, F, Gillum, RF, Gmel, G, Gosselin, R, Grainger, R, Groeger, J, Guillemin, F, Gunnell, D, Gupta, R, Haagsma, J, Hagan, H, Halasa, YA, Hall, W, Haring, D, Haro, JM, Harrison, JE, Havmoeller, R, Hay, RJ, Higashi, H, Hill, C, Hoen, B, Hoffman, H, Hotez, PJ, Hoy, D, Huang, JJ, Ibeanusi, SE, Jacobsen, KH, James, SL, Jarvis, D, Jasrasaria, R, Jayaraman, S, Johns, N, Jonas, JB, Karthikeyan, G, Kassebaum, N, Kawakami, N, Keren, A, Khoo, JP, King, CH, Knowlton, LM, Kobusingye, O, Koranteng, A, Krishnamurthi, R, Lalloo, R, Laslett, LL, Lathlean, T, Leasher, JL, Lee, YY, Leigh, J, Lim, SS, Limb, E, Lin, JK, Lipnick, M, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, W, Loane, M, Ohno, SL, Lyons, R, Ma, J, Mabweijano, J, MacIntyre, MF, Malekzadeh, R, Mallinger, L, Manivannan, S, Marcenes, W, March, L, Margolis, DJ, Marks, GB, Marks, R, Matsumori, A, Matzopoulos, R, Mayosi, BM, McAnulty, JH, McDermott, MM, McGill, N, McGrath, J, Medina-Mora, ME, Meltzer, M, Mensah, GA, Merriman, TR, Meyer, AC, Miglioli, V, Miller, M, Miller, TR, Mitchell, PB, Mocumbi, AO, Moffitt, TE, Mokdad, AA, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moran, A, Morawska, L, Mori, R, Murdoch, ME, Mwaniki, MK, Naidoo, K, Nair, MN, Naldi, L, Narayan, KM, Nelson, PK, Nelson, RG, Nevitt, MC, Newton, CR, Nolte, S, Norman, P, Norman, R, O'Donnell, M, O'Hanlon, S, Olives, C, Omer, SB, Ortblad, K, Osborne, R, Ozgediz, D, Page, A, Pahari, B, Pandian, JD, Rivero, AP, Patten, SB, Pearce, N, Padilla, RP, Perez-Ruiz, F, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Phillips, D, Phillips, MR, Pierce, K, Pion, S, Polanczyk, GV, Polinder, S, Pope, CA 3rd, Popova, S, Porrini, E, Pourmalek, F, Prince, M, Pullan, RL, Ramaiah, KD, Ranganathan, D, Razavi, H, Regan, M, Rehm, JT, Rein, DB, Remuzzi, G, Richardson, K, Rivara, FP, Roberts, T, Robinson, C, De Leòn, FR, Ronfani, L, Room, R, Rosenfeld, LC, Rushton, L, Sacco, RL, Saha, S, Sampson, U, Sanchez-Riera, L, Sanman, E, Schwebel, DC, Scott, JG, Segui-Gomez, M, Shahraz, S, Shepard, DS, Shin, H, Shivakoti, R, Singh, D, Singh, GM, Singh, JA, Singleton, J, Sleet, DA, Sliwa, K, Smith, E, Smith, JL, Stapelberg, NJ, Steer, A, Steiner, T, Stolk, WA, Stovner, LJ, Sudfeld, C, Syed, S, Tamburlini, G, Tavakkoli, M, Taylor, HR, Taylor, JA, Taylor, WJ, Thomas, B, Thomson, WM, Thurston, GD, Tleyjeh, IM, Tonelli, M, Towbin, JA, Truelsen, T, Tsilimbaris, MK, Ubeda, C, Undurraga, EA, van der Werf, MJ, van Os, J, Vavilala, MS, Venketasubramanian, N, Wang, M, Wang, W, Watt, K, Weatherall, DJ, Weinstock, MA, Weintraub, R, Weisskopf, MG, Weissman, MM, White, RA, Whiteford, H, Wiersma, ST, Wilkinson, JD, Williams, HC, Williams, SR, Witt, E, Wolfe, F, Woolf, AD, Wulf, S, Yeh, PH, Zaidi, AK, Zheng, ZJ, Zonies, D, Lopez, AD, Murray, CJ, AlMazroa, MA, and Memish, ZA (2012) Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010. Lancet 380, 21632196.
Warshaw, MG, Klerman, GL and Lavori, PW (1991) Are secular trends in major depression an artifact of recall? Journal of Psychiatric Research 25, 141151.
Weissman, MM (1992) The changing rate of major depression. JAMA 268, 3098.
Wiberg, P, Waern, M, Billstedt, E, Ostling, S and Skoog, I (2013) Secular trends in the prevalence of dementia and depression in Swedish septuagenarians 1976–2006. Psychological Medicine 43, 26272634.
Wickramaratne, PJ, Weissman, MM, Leaf, PJ and Holford, TR (1989) Age, period and cohort effects on the risk of major depression: results from five United States communities. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 42, 333343.
Wittchen, H-U and Uhmann, S (2010) The timing of depression: an epidemiological perspective. Medicographia 32, 115125.

Keywords

Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Jeuring et al supplementary material
Jeuring et al supplementary material 1

 Unknown (17 KB)
17 KB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed