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Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis

  • Ana Catalan (a1) (a2), Stefania Tognin (a1) (a3), Matthew J. Kempton (a1) (a4), Daniel Stahl (a5), Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo (a6) (a7), Barnaby Nelson (a8) (a9), Christos Pantelis (a10), Anita Riecher-Rössler (a11), Rodrigo Bressan (a12), Neus Barrantes-Vidal (a13), Marie-Odile Krebs (a14) (a15), Merete Nordentoft (a16), Stephan Ruhrmann (a17), Gabriele Sachs (a18), Bart P. F. Rutten (a19), Jim van Os (a1) (a19) (a20), Lieuwe de Haan (a21), Mark van der Gaag (a22) (a23), EU-GEI High Risk Study, Lucia R. Valmaggia (a4) (a24) and Philip McGuire (a1) (a3) (a4)...

Abstract

Background

Psychosis is associated with a reasoning bias, which manifests as a tendency to ‘jump to conclusions’. We examined this bias in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) and investigated its relationship with their clinical outcomes.

Methods

In total, 303 CHR subjects and 57 healthy controls (HC) were included. Both groups were assessed at baseline, and after 1 and 2 years. A ‘beads’ task was used to assess reasoning bias. Symptoms and level of functioning were assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States scale (CAARMS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), respectively. During follow up, 58 (16.1%) of the CHR group developed psychosis (CHR-T), and 245 did not (CHR-NT). Logistic regressions, multilevel mixed models, and Cox regression were used to analyse the relationship between reasoning bias and transition to psychosis and level of functioning, at each time point.

Results

There was no association between reasoning bias at baseline and the subsequent onset of psychosis. However, when assessed after the transition to psychosis, CHR-T participants showed a greater tendency to jump to conclusions than CHR-NT and HC participants (55, 17, 17%; χ2 = 8.13, p = 0.012). There was a significant association between jumping to conclusions (JTC) at baseline and a reduced level of functioning at 2-year follow-up in the CHR group after adjusting for transition, gender, ethnicity, age, and IQ.

Conclusions

In CHR participants, JTC at baseline was associated with adverse functioning at the follow-up. Interventions designed to improve JTC could be beneficial in the CHR population.

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Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.

Corresponding author

Author for correspondence: Ana Catalan, E-mail: ana.catalan@kcl.ac.uk

Footnotes

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EU-GEI High Risk Study Group Author: See appendix for author list.

Footnotes

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Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis

  • Ana Catalan (a1) (a2), Stefania Tognin (a1) (a3), Matthew J. Kempton (a1) (a4), Daniel Stahl (a5), Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo (a6) (a7), Barnaby Nelson (a8) (a9), Christos Pantelis (a10), Anita Riecher-Rössler (a11), Rodrigo Bressan (a12), Neus Barrantes-Vidal (a13), Marie-Odile Krebs (a14) (a15), Merete Nordentoft (a16), Stephan Ruhrmann (a17), Gabriele Sachs (a18), Bart P. F. Rutten (a19), Jim van Os (a1) (a19) (a20), Lieuwe de Haan (a21), Mark van der Gaag (a22) (a23), EU-GEI High Risk Study, Lucia R. Valmaggia (a4) (a24) and Philip McGuire (a1) (a3) (a4)...

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