Skip to main content Accessibility help

The natural history of schizophrenia: a five-year follow-up study of outcome and prediction in a representative sample of schizophrenics

  • Michael Shepherd, David Watt, Ian Falloon and Nigel Smeeton




Hide All
Abel-Smith, B. & Titmuss, R. M. (1956). The Cost of the National Health Service in England and Wales. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
Achté, D. A. (1967). On prognosis and rehabilitation in schizophrenic and paranoid psychoses. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 43, Suppl. 196.
Affleck, J. W., Burns, J. & Forrest, A. D. (1976). Long-term followup of schizophrenic patients in Edinburgh. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 53, 227237.
Astrup, C., Fossum, A. & Holmboe, R. (1962). Prognosis in Functional Psychoses. C. C. Thomas: Springfield, Illinois.
Astrup, C. & Noreik, K. (1966). Functional Psychoses: Diagnostic & Prognostic Models. C. C. Thomas: Springfield, Illinois.
Beck, M. N. (1968). Twenty-five and thirty-five year follow-up of first admissions to mental hospital. Canadian Psychiatric Association Journal 13, 219229.
Biehl, H., Maurer, K., Schubart, C., Krumm, B. & Jung, E. (1986). Prediction of outcome and utilization of medical services in a prospective study of first onset schizophrenics: results of a fiveyear follow-up study. European Archives of Psychiatry and Neurological Sciences 236, 139147.
Bland, R. C. & Orn, H. (1979). Schizophrenia: diagnostic criteria and outcome. British Journal of Psychiatry 134, 3438.
Bleuler, E. (1908). The prognosis of dementia praecox: the group of schizophrenias (Die Prognose der Dementia Praecox–Schizophreniegruppe), Allegemeine Zeitschift fur Psychiatrie 65, 436464. Translated in The Clinical Roots of the Schizophrenia Concept (ed. J. Cutting & M. Shepherd), pp. 59–74. Cambridge University Press: London. 1987.
Bleuler, E. (1950). Dementia Praecox or the Group of Schizophrenias (trans. Zimkiss, J.). International Universities Press: New York.
Bleuler, M. (1978). The Schizophrenic Disorders: Long-term Patient and Family Studies. Yale University Press: New Haven.
Bond, E. D. & Braceland, F. J. (1937). Prognosis in mental disease. American Journal of Psychiatry 94, 263274.
Böök, J. A. & Modrzewska, K. (1982). Schizophrenia and suicide in a north Swedish isolate, 1890–1980. Clinical Genetics 22, 280283.
Braatöy, T. (1936). The prognosis in schizophrenia, with some remarks regarding diagnosis and therapy. Acta Psychiatrica et Neurologica Scandinavica 11, 63102.
Brockington, I. F., Kendell, R. E. & Wainwright, S. (1980). Depressed patients with schizophrenic or paranoid symptoms. Psychological Medicine 10, 665675.
Brown, G. W. & Harris, T. O. (1978). Social Origins of Depression: A Study of Psychiatric Disorder in Women. Tavistock: London.
Brown, G. W., Bone, M., Dalison, B. & Wing, J. K. (1966). Schizophrenia and Social Care. Oxford University Press: London.
Brown, G. W., Birley, J. L. T. & Wing, J. K. (1972). Influence of family life on the course of schizophrenia disorders: a replication. British Journal of Psychiatry 121, 241258.
Ciompi, L. (1980). Catamnestic long-term study on the course of life and aging of schizophrenics. Schizophrenia Bulletin 6, 606618.
Ciompi, L. & Müller, C. (1976). Lebesweg undAller der Schizophrenen. Springer-Verlag: Berlin.
Cohen, J. (1960). A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement 20, 3746.
Cooper, J. E. (1967). Diagnostic change in a longitudinal study of psychiatric patients. British Journal of Psychiatry 113, 129142.
Creer, C. & Wing, J. (1974). Schizophrenia at Home. National Schizophrenia Fellowship: Surbiton.
Department of Health and Social Security (1977). In-patient Statistics from the Mental Mental Health Enquiry for England 1974. HMSO: London.
Dilling, H. & Weyerer, S. (1984). Prevalence of mental disorders in the small-town-rural region of Traunstein (Upper Bavaria). Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 69, 6079.
Donlon, P. T., Rada, R. T. & Arora, K. K. (1976). Depression and the reintegration phase of acute schizophrenia. American Journal of Psychiatry 133, 12651268.
Dunn, G. (1981). The role of linear models in psychiatric epidemiology. Psychological Medicine 11, 179184.
Eitinger, L., Laane, C. L. & Langfeldt, G. (1958). The prognostic value of the clinical picture and the therapeutic value of physical treatment in schizophrenia and the schizophreniform states. Acta Psychiatrica et Neurologica Scandinavica 33, 3353.
Evensen, H. (1936). Recherches faites aprés la sortie sur env. 800 cas de démence précoce, traités à l'asil d'aliénés de Gaustad durant les années 1915–29. Acta Psychiatrica et Neurologica 11, 799816.
Faergeman, P.M. (1963). Psychogenic Psychoses. Butterworths: London.
Falloon, I. R. H., Boyd, J. L., McGill, C. W., Razani, J., Moss, H. B. & Gilderman, A. M. (1982). Family management in the prevention of exacerbations of schizophrenia. The New England Journal of Medicine 306, 14371441.
Falloon, I., Watt, D. C. & Shepherd, M. (1978 a). A comparative controlled trial of pimozide and fluphenazine decanoate in the continuation therapy of schizophrenia. Psychological Medicine 8, 5970.
Falloon, I., Watt, D. C. & Shepherd, M. (1978 b). The social outcome of patients in a trial of long-term continuation therapy in schizophrenia: pimozide vs fluphenazine. Psychological Medicine 8, 265274.
Farina, A., Garmezy, N. & Barry, H. (1963). Relationship of marital status to incidence and prognosis of schizophrenia. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67, 624630.
Forrest, A. D. & Hay, A. J. (1972). The influence of sex on schizophrenia. Acta Psychiatric Scandinavica 48, 4958.
Freyhan, F. A. (1955). Course and outcome of schizophrenia. American Journal of Psychiatry 112, 161167.
Galdi, J., Rieder, R. O., Silber, D. & Bonato, R. R. (1981). Genetic factors in the response to neuroleptics in schizophrenia: a psychopharmacogenetic study. Psychological Medicine 11, 713728.
Gopleurud, E. & Depue, R. A. (1978). The diagnostic ambiguity of post psychotic depression. Schizophrenia Bulletin 4, 477480.
Gordon, I. J. (1987). Predicting the outcome: a new crystal ball? Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 80, 133134.
Hamilton, D. M. & Wall, J. H. (1948). The hospital treatment of dementia praecox. American Journal of Psychiatry 105, 346352.
Hand, D. J. (1981). Discrimination and Classification. Wiley: London.
Harding, C. M., Brooks, G. W., Ashikaga, T., Strauss, J. S. & Breier, A. (1987). The Vermont longitudinal study of persons with severe mental illness, I: Methodology, study sample and overall status 32 years later. American Journal of Psychiatry 144, 718726.
Harris, A., Linker, I., Norris, V. & Shepherd, M. (1956). Schizophrenia: a prognostic and social study. British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine 10, 107114.
Hastings, D. W. (1958). Follow-up results in psychiatric illness. American Journal of Psychiatry 114, 10571065.
Hawk, A. B., Carpenter, W. T. & Strauss, J. S. (1975). Diagnostic criteria and five-year outcome in schizophrenia: A report from the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia. Archives of General Psychiatry 32, 343347.
Holmboe, R. & Astrup, C. (1957). A follow-up study of 255 patients with acute schizophrenia and schizophreniform psychoses. Acta Psychiatrica el Neurologica Scandinavica, Suppl. 115, 32.
Hüber, G., Gross, G. & Schüttler, R. (1975). A long-term follow up study of schizophrenia: Psychiatric course of illness and prognosis. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 52, 4957.
Hüber, G., Gross, G., Schüttler, R. & Linz, M. (1980). Longitudinal studies of schizophrenic patients. Schizophrenia Bulletin 6, 593605.
Jablensky, A. (1987). Multicultural studies and the nature of schizophrenia: a review. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 80, 162167.
Johanson, E. (1958). A study of schizophrenia in the male. Acta Psychiatrica et Neurologica Scandinavica, Suppl. 125, 33.
Johnson, D. A. W. (1981). Studies of depressive symptoms in schizophrenia. British Journal of Psychiatry 139, 89101.
Johnstone, E. C., Frith, C. D., Gold, A. & Stevens, M. (1979). The outcome of severe acute schizophrenic illness after one year. British Journal of Psychiatry 134, 2833.
Kay, D. W. K. (1972). Schizophrenia and schizophrenia-like states in the elderly. British Journal of Hospital Medicine 8, 369376.
Kendall, M. G. & Stuart, A. (1979). The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 2, fourth edn. Griffin: London.
Kendall, M., Stuart, A. & Ord, J. K. (1983). The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. 3, fourth edn. Griffin: London.
Kendell, R. E. & Gourlay, J. (1970). The clinical distinction between affective psychoses and schizophrenia. British Journal of Psychiatry 117, 261266.
Knights, A. & Hirsch, S. R. (1981). ‘Revealed’ depression and drug treatment for schizophrenia. Archives of General Psychiatry 38, 806811.
Kraepelin, E. (1896). Psychiatrie, fifth edn. Johann Ambrosius Barth: Leipzig.
Kraepelin, E. (1919). Dementia Praecox and Paraphrenia. Livingstone: Edinburgh.
Kulhara, P. & Wig, N. N. (1978). The chronicity of schizophrenia in North West India: results of a follow-up study. British Journal of Psychiatry 132, 186190.
Landis, C. & Page, J. D. (1938). Modern Society and Mental Disease. Rinehart: New York.
Langfeldt, G. (1937). The Prognosis in Schizophrenia and the Factors Influencing the Course of the Disease. Oxford University Press: London.
Langfeldt, G. (1939). The Schizophreniform States. Munksgaard: Copenhagen.
Leaf, P. J., Weissman, M. M., Myers, J. K., Tischler, G. L. & Holzer, C. E. (1984). Social factors related to psychiatric disorder: the Yale Epidemiological Catchment Area Study. Social Psychiatry 19, 5361.
Leff, J., Kuipers, L., Berkowitz, R. & Sturgeon, D. (1985). A controlled trial of social intervention in the families of schizophrenic patients: two-year follow-up. British Journal of Psychiatry 146, 594600.
Leventhal, D. B., Schuck, J. R. & Rothstein, H. (1984). Gender differences in schizophrenia. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease 172, 464467.
Lewine, R. R. J. (1980). Sex differences in age of symptom onset and first hospitalisation in schizophrenia. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry 50, 316322.
Lewine, R. R. J. (1981). Sex differences in schizophrenia. Timing or subtypes? Psychological Bulletin 90, 432444.
Lewine, R. R. J., Strauss, J. S. & Gift, T. E. (1981). Sex differences in age at first hospital admission for schizophrenia: fact or artefact? American Journal of Psychiatry 138, 440444.
Lewis, A. (1953). Health as a social concept. British Journal of Sociology 4, 109124. Reprinted in The State of Psychiatry (1967), Routledge and Kegan Paul: London.
Lilienfeld, A. M. & Lilienfeld, D. E. (1980). Foundations of Epidemiology, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press: New York.
Loranger, A. W. (1984). Sex differences in age at onset of schizophrenia. Archives of General Psychiatry 45, 157161.
Malamud, W. & Render, N. (1939). Course and prognosis in schizophrenia. American Journal of Psychiatry 95, 10391057.
Malzberg, B. (1935). A statistical study of age in relation to mental disease. Mental Hygiene 19, 449477.
Markowe, M., Steinert, J. & Heyworth-Davies, F. (1967). Insulin and chlorpromazine in schizophrenia: A ten-year comparative study. British Journal of Psychiatry 113, 11011106.
Masterson, J. F. (1965). Prognosis in adolescent disorders: Schizophrenia. Journal of Nervous & Mental Disease 124, 219232.
May, P. R. A., Tuma, A. H. & Kraude, W. (1965). Community follow-up of treatment of schizophrenia – issues and problems. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry 35, 754763.
Mayer-Gross, W. (1932). Die Schizophrenie. In Handuch der Geisteskrankheiten, Vol. 9 (ed. Bumke, D.), pp. 534578. Springer: Berlin.
Mellor, C. S. (1982). The present status of first-rank symptoms. British Journal of Psychiatry 140, 423424.
Möller, H. J. & von Zerrsen, D. (1982). Depressive states occurring during the neuroleptic treatment of schizophrenia. Schizophrenia Bulletin 8, 109117.
Möller, H. J., von Zerssen, D., Werner-Eilert, K. & WüschnerStockeim, M. (1982). Outcome in schizophrenia and similar paranoid psychoses. Schizophrenia Bulletin 8, 99108.
Munk-Jørgensen, P. (1986). Decreasing first-admission rates of schizophrenia among males in Denmark from 1970 to 1984. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 73, 645650.
Murphy, H. B. M. & Raman, A. C. (1971). The chronicity of schizophrenia in indigenous tropical peoples: results of a twelveyear follow-up survey in Mauritius. British Journal of Psychiatry 118, 489497.
Norris, V. (1956). A statistical study of the influence of marriage on the hospital care of the mentally sick. Journal of Mental Science 102, 467486.
Norris, V. (1959). Mental Illness in London. Maudsley Monographs, no. 6, Institute of Psychiatry, Chapman & Hall: London.
Nystrup, J. (1976). A hospital population of schizophrenic patients undergoing change. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 53, 211226.
Ødegaard, Ø. (1946). Marriage and mental disease: a study in social psychopathology. Journal of Mental Science 92, 3559.
Ødegaard, Ø. (1967). Changes in the prognosis of functional psychoses since the days of Kraepelin. British Journal of Psychiatry 113, 813822.
Palmer, R. L., Ekisa, E. G. & Winbow, A. J. (1981). Patterns of selfreported symptoms in chronic psychiatric patients. British Journal of Psychiatry 139, 209212.
Planansky, K. & Johnston, R. (1978). Depressive syndrome in schizophrenia. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 57, 207218.
Rawnsley, K. (1982). Epidemiology of affective psychoses. In Handbook of Psychiatry, vol. 3 (ed. Wing, J. K. and Wing, L.), pp. 129133. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
Rennie, T. A. C. (1941). Analysis of one hundred cases of schizophrenia with recovery. Archives of Neurology and Psychiatry 46, 197229.
Rennie, T. A. C. & Fowler, J. B. (1939). Follow-up study of five hundred patients with schizophrenia admitted to the hospital from 1913 to 1923. Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry 42, 877891.
Renton, C. A., Affleck, J. W., Carstairs, G. M. & Forrest, A. D. (1963). A follow-up of schizophrenic patients in Edinburgh. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 39, 548600.
Retterstöl, N. (1966). Paranoid and Paranoiac Psychoses. Universitetsforlaget: Oslo.
Rosanoff, A. J. (1914). A statistical study of prognosis in insanity. Journal of the American Medical Association 62, 36.
Rosanthal, D. (1961). Sex distribution and the severity of illness among samples of schizophrenic twins. Journal of Psychiatric Research 1, 2636.
Rupp, C. & Fletcher, E. K. (1940). A five to ten year follow-up study of 641 schizophrenic cases. American Journal of Psychiatry 96, 877888.
Salokangas, R. K. R. (1983). Prognostic implications of the sex of schizophrenic patients. British Journal of Psychiatry 142, 145151.
Sartorius, N., Jablensky, A., Korten, A., Ernberg, G., Anker, M., Cooper, J. E. & Day, R. (1986). Early manifestations and firstcontact incidence of schizophrenia in different cultures. Psychological Medicine 16, 909928.
Schneider, K. (1959). Clinical Psychopathology. Grune & Stratton: New York.
Schneider, K. (1976). Klinische Psychopalhologie, 11th edn. Georg Thieme: Stuttgart.
Schwarz, R., Biehl, H., Krumm, B. & Schubart, C. (1980). Case finding and characteristics of schizophrenic patients of recent onset in Mannheim. In Epidemiological Research as Basis for the Organisation of Extramural Psychiatry, (ed. Strömgren, E., Dupont, A. and Nielsen, J. A.). Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, Suppl. 285, 62, 212219.
Seeman, M. V. (1981). Gender and the onset of schizophrenia: neurohumoral influences. Psychiatric Journal of the University of Ottawa, 6 136137.
Sheldrick, C., Jablensky, A., Sartorius, N. & Shepherd, M. (1977). Schizophrenia succeeded by affective illness; catamnestic study and statistical enquiry. Psychological Medicine 7, 619624.
Shepherd, M. (1957). A Study of the Major Psychoses in an English County. Chapman & Hall: London.
Shepherd, M. (1959). The social outcome of early schizophrenia. Psychiatria et Neurologia 137, 224229.
Shepherd, M., Cooper, B., Brown, A. C. & Kalton, G. W. (1966). Psychiatric Illness in General Practice. Oxford University Press: London.
Siegel, S. (1956). Nonparametric Statistics for the Behavioural Sciences. McGraw-Hill: New York.
Spiegel, M. R. (1974). Theory and Problems of Advanced Calculus. McGraw-Hill: New York.
SPSS. (1988). SPSS-X User's Guide, 3rd edn. SPSS Inc.: Chicago.
Stearns, A. W. (1912). The prognosis in dementia praecox. Boston Medical and Surgical Journal 167, 158160.
Stephens, J. H. (1970). Long-term course and prognosis in schizophrenia. Seminars in Psychiatry 2, 464485.
Stephens, J. H. (1978). Long-term prognosis and follow-up in schizophrenia. Schizophrenia Bulletin 4, 2547.
Stevens, B. C. (1969). Marriage and Fertility of Women Suffering from Schizophrenia or Affective Disorders. Maudsley Monograph no. 19. Oxford University Press: London.
Stevens, B. C. (1973). Role of fluphenazine decanoate in lessening the burden of chronic schizophrenics on the community. Psychological Medicine, 3 141158.
Strauss, J. S. & Carpenter, W. T. (1977). Prediction of outcome in schizophrenia. III. Five-year outcome and its predictors. Archives of General Psychiatry 34, 159163.
Szymanski, H. V., Simon, J. C. & Gutterman, N. (1983). Recovery from schizophrenic psychosis. American Journal of Psychiatry 140, 335338.
Tsuang, M. T. & Winokur, G. (1975). The Iowa 500: fieldwork in a 35-year follow-up of depression, mania, and schizophrenia. Canadian Psychiatric Association Journal 20, 359365.
Vaughn, C. E. & Leff, J. P. (1976). The influence of family and social factors on the course of psychiatric illness: A comparison of schizophrenic and depressed neurotic patients. British Journal of Psychiatry 129, 125137.
Vaughn, C. E., Snyder, K. S., Jones, S., Freeman, W. B. & Falloon, I. R. H. (1984). Family factors in schizophrenic relapse: A California replication of the British research on expressed emotion. Archives of General Psychiatry 41, 11691177.
Warner, R. (1981) The influence of economic factors on outcome in schizophrenia. Psychiatry & Social Science 1, 79106.
Warner, R. (1985). Recovery from Schizophrenia: Psychiatry and Political Economy. Routledge and Kegan Paul: London.
Watt, D. C. & Buglass, D. (1966). The effect of clinical and social factors on the discharge of chronic psychiatric patients. Social Psychiatry 1, 5763.
Watt, D. C. & Szulecka, T. K. (1979). The effect of sex, marriage and age at first admission on the hospitalization of schizophrenics during 2 years following discharge. Psychological Medicine, 9 529539.
Watt, D. C., Katz, K. & Shepherd, M. (1983). The natural history of schizophrenia: a 5-year prospective follow-up of a representative sample of schizophrenics by means of a standardized clinical and social assessment. Psychological Medicine 13, 663670.
Watts, C. A. H. (1973). Review of schizophrenics in a rural practice over 26 years. British Medical Journal 1, 465469.
Waxler, N. E. (1979). Is outcome for schizophrenia better in nonindustrial societies? The case of Sri Lanka. Journal of Nervous & Mental Disease 167, 144158. (Reply, Stevenson I. Journal of Nervous & Mental Disease 159–160).
Wilkinson, D. G. (1982). The suicide rate in schizophrenia. British Journal of Psychiatry 140, 335338.
Wing, J. K. (1968). Social treatments of mental illness. In Studies in Psychiatry (ed. Shepherd, M. and Davies, D. L.), pp. 1731. Oxford University Press: London.
Wing, J. K. & Brown, G. W. (1970). Institutionalism and Schizophrenia. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
Wing, J. K., Cooper, J. & Sartorius, N. (1974). Measurement and Classification of Psychiatric Symptoms: an Instruction Manual for PSE and CATEGO Program. Cambridge University Press: London.
Woodworth, R. S. & Schlosberg, H. (1954). Experimental Psychology, revised edition. Methuen: London.
World Health Organization (1979). Schizophrenia: An International Follow-up Study. John Wiley: Geneva.
Zubin, J., Magaziner, J. & Steinhauer, S. R. (1983). The metamorphosis of schizophrenia: from chronicity to vulnerability. Psychological Medicine 13, 551571.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Psychological Medicine Monograph Supplement
  • ISSN: 0264-1801
  • EISSN: 2051-2023
  • URL: /core/journals/psychological-medicine-monograph-supplement
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *


Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed