Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-18T06:08:37.280Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Rejecting More of the Same? The 2016 Veepstakes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2016

Jody C Baumgartner
Jody C Baumgartner*
Affiliation:
East Carolina University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this article, I present results from a conditional logit model of vice presidential selection that predicts the selection of vice presidential candidates for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016. Examining contested major party vice presidential nominations from 1960 through 2012, the model finds media exposure, political experience, military service, age, and demographic (gender/racial/ethnic) diversity to be significant factors in the selection process. In the end, the model correctly predicts 15 of the 21 (71.%) contested major party nominations during this period. For 2016 the model correctly and convincingly predicts Mike Pence as Donald Trump’s selection, but incorrectly predicts Cory Booker as Hillary Clinton’s pick. This reduces the overall percentage of correct predictions from 1960 to 2016 to 69.6% (16 of 23), but the approach taken here still represents a more appropriate way for social scientists to think about what factors drive vice presidential selection.

Type
Articles
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 49 , Special Issue 4: Elections in Focus , October 2016 , pp. 775 - 781
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Arnsdorf, Isaac. 2016. “Clinton Hopefuls Face Public Rejection.” Politico. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/hillary-clinton-vp-public-rejection-226047. July 22. Accessed July 22, 2016.Google Scholar
Barone, Michael and Cohen, Richard E.. 2006. The Almanac of American Politics, 2006. Washington, DC: National Journal Group.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Jody C. 2008. “The Veepstakes: Forecasting Vice Presidential Selection in 2008.” PS: Politics & Political Science 41 (4): 765–72.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Jody C. 2012a. “Vice Presidential Selection in the Convention Era: Experience or Electoral Advantage?” Congress and the Presidency 39 (3): 297–315.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Jody C. 2012b. “The Post-Palin Calculus: The 2012 Republican Veepstakes.” PS: Politics & Political Science 45 (4): 605–9.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Jody C. 2015. The Vice Presidency: From the Shadow to the Spotlight. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Berg, Rebecca. 2016. “In Pence, Trump May Have Found His VP Match.” Real Clear Politics. Published July 12. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/07/12/in_pence_trump_may_have_found_his_vp_match_131173.html. Accessed July 12, 2016.Google Scholar
Browne, Ryan. 2016. “Gen. Michael Flynn: Possible Trump VP Pick and Foreign Policy Architect.” CNN. Published July 12, 2016. http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/11/politics/michael-flynn-general-trump-vp-option/. Accessed July 12, 2016.Google Scholar
Claiborne, Matthew. 2016. “Hillary Clinton Meets With Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper in Vice President Search.” ABC News. Published July 16. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-meets-colorado-gov-hickenlooper-vice-president/story?id=40636955. Accessed July 16, 2016.Google Scholar
Costa, Robert and Rucker, Philip. 2016. Donald Trump Favors Christie, Pence and Gingrich as He Closes in on VP Pick.” ChicagoTribune.Com. Published July 11. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-donald-trump-vice-president-20160711-story.html. Accessed July 11, 2016.Google Scholar
Dovere, Edward-Isaac and Debenedetti, Gabriel. 2016. “Inside the VP Hunt: How Clinton Picked Kaine.” Politico. July 23. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/tim-kaine-vp-ticktock-226069. Accessed July 23, 2916.Google Scholar
Garraty, John A. and Carnes, Mark C., eds. 1999. American National Biography. New York: Oxford.Google Scholar
Gass, Nick. 2016. “Clinton Talks up VP Possibilities.” Politico. July 19, 2016. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-vice-president-possibilities-225811. Accessed July 19, 2016.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Joel K. 1982. The Modern American Vice Presidency: The Transformation of a Political Institution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University.Google Scholar
Greene, William H. 2003. Econometric Analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Hiller, Mark and Kriner, Douglas. 2008. “Institutional Change and the Dynamic of Vice Presidential Selection.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 38 (3): 401–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karni, Annie and Debenedetti, Gabriel. 2016. “Kaine Rises to Top of Clinton’s Veep List.” Politico. Published July 23, 2016. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/kaine-rises-to-top-of-clintons-veep-list-224702. Accessed July 23. 2016.Google Scholar
Kurtz, Howard. 2016. “Christie? Pence? Newt? Why Donald Trump is Torn on His VP Pick.” FOX News. Published July 14, 2016. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/14/christie-pence-newt-why-donald-trump-is-torn-on-his-vp-pick.html. Accessed July 14, 2016.Google Scholar
Marquis. 1940 et seq. Who’s Who in America. Chicago: A.N. Marquis.Google Scholar
Mayer, William G. 2000. “A Brief History of Vice Presidential Selection,” in Mayer, William G., ed., In Pursuit of the White House 2000: How We Choose Our Presidential Nominees. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.Google Scholar
McFadden, Daniel. 1974. “Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior,” in Zarembka, Paul, ed., Frontiers in Econometrics. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Noble, Jason. 2016. “For Clinton, Vilsack Could be the Perfect VP.” DesMoinesRegister.Com. Published July 21. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/07/21/clinton-vilsack-could-perfect-vp/87141650/. Accessed July 21, 2016.Google Scholar
Reuters. 2016. “Donald Trump Vice President Picks: A Look at the Republican’s Potential Running Mate Choices.” Reuters. Published July 13. http://www.amny.com/news/elections/donald-trump-vice-president-picks-a-look-at-the-republican-s-potential-running-mate-choices-1.12038080. Accessed July 13, 2016.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee and Wahlbeck, Paul J.. 1997. “The “Veepstakes”: Strategic Choice in Presidential Running Mate Selection.” American Political Science Review 91 (4): 855–64.Google Scholar
Stokols, Eli and Everett, Burgess. 2016. “Trump’s performance raises hard question: Who’d want to be his VP?” Politico. Published July 17. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-vice-president-224488. Accessed July 17, 2016.Google Scholar
US Congress. (n.d.) “The Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (1774–Present).” Available at <http://bioguide.congress.gov/>).).>Google Scholar
Wikipedia. 2016a. “Democratic Party Vice Presidential Candidate Selection, 2016.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. June 28. Retrieved July 1, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Democratic_Party_vice_presidential_candidate_selection,_2016&oldid=727332378.Google Scholar
Wikipedia. 2016b. “Republican Party Vice Presidential Candidate Selection, 2016.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. June 29. Retrieved July 1, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Republican_Party_vice_presidential_candidate_selection,_2016&oldid=727535860.Google Scholar
Zeleny, Jeff and Merica, Dan. 2016. “Hillary Clinton Poised to Reveal VP Pick.” CNN. Published July 22. http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/hillary-clinton-vice-president-search/index.html?. Accessed July 22, 2016.Google Scholar