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A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

  • James E. Campbell (a1), Helmut Norpoth (a2), Alan I. Abramowitz (a3), Michael S. Lewis-Beck (a4), Charles Tien (a5), James E. Campbell (a6), Robert S. Erikson (a7), Christopher Wlezien (a8), Brad Lockerbie (a9), Thomas M. Holbrook (a10), Bruno Jerôme (a11), Véronique Jerôme-Speziari (a12), Andreas Graefe (a13), J. Scott Armstrong (a14), Randall J. Jones (a15) and Alfred G. Cuzán (a16)...



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Campbell, James E. 2008. The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote, second edition, College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press.
Campbell, James E. 2016. “The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections,” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 664–68.
Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, Scott, and Jones, Randall J.. 2005. “How we Computed the PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 51–2.
Erikson, Robert S. and Wlezien, Christopher. 2016. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 449–72.
Graefe, Andreas. 2014. “Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 78 (S1): 204–32.
Graefe, Andreas., Armstrong, Scott, Jones, Randall J., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014a. “Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 4354.
Graefe, Andreas., Armstrong, Scott J., Cuzán, Alfred G., and Jones, Randall J.. 2014b. “Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 427–31.
Wasserman, David. 2017. “2016 Popular Vote Tracker,” The Cook Political Report (January 2, 2017).
Wlezien, Christopher Erikson, Robert S.. 1996. “Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts.” American Politics Research 24: 492505.
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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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