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PROXY FORECASTS: A WORKING STRATEGY

  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck (a1) and Charles Tien (a2)

Extract

Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points.

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Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Martini, Nicholas, and Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 2012. “The Nature of Economic Perceptions in Mass Publics.” Paper presented at The Shambaugh Conference on the “New Economic Voter,” Department of Political Science, University of Iowa.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2012a. “Nowcasts For and Against Obama: Final Models Collide.” September 18. http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/09/18/potpourri-88/ (November 7, 2012).
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2012b. “Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 625–29.
Tien, Charles, Nadeau, Richard, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2012. “Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 591–95.

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