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The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election

  • Andreas Graefe (a1), Randall J. Jones (a2), J. Scott Armstrong (a3) and Alfred G. Cuzán (a4)
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References

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Armstrong, J. Scott. 2001. “Combining Forecasts.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Armstrong, J. Scott, Editor. New York: Springer, 417–39.
Armstrong, J. Scott and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2006. “Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections.” Foresight: International Journal of Applied Forecasting 3: 1013.
Armstrong, J. Scott and Graefe, Andreas. 2011. “Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A Test of the Index Method.” Journal of Business Research 64 (7): 699706.
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Campbell, James E. 2013 “Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election,” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (1): 37.
Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr. 2005a. “How we Computed the PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 51–2.
Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr.. 2005b. “The PollyVote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election.” Paper presented at the 2005 International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio.
Cuzán, Alfred G. and Bundrick, Charles M.. 2009. “Predicting Presidential Elections with Equally Weighted Regressors in Fair’s Equation and the Fiscal Model.” Political Analysis 17 (3): 333–40.
Franklin, Benjamin. 1956. “Benjamin Franklin’s 1772 letter to Joseph Priestley.” Available: http://www.procon.org/view.background-resource.php?resourceID=1474.
Graefe, Andreas. 2013. “Issue and Leader Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Electoral Studies 32 (4): 644–57.
Graefe, Andreas. 2014. “Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 78 (S1): 204–32.
Graefe, Andreas. 2015a. “Accuracy Gains of Adding Vote Expectation Surveys to a Combined Forecast of US Presidential Election Outcomes.” Research & Politics 2 (1): 15.
Graefe, Andreas. 2015b. “Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors.” Journal of Business Research 68 (8): 1792–99.
Graefe, Andreas. 2016. “Political Markets.” Forthcoming (subject to changes) in the SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behavior. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292615991_Political_markets.
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014a. “Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 4354.
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014b. “Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 427–31.
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2009. “Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 12: 4142.
Graefe, Andreas, Küchenhoff, Helmut, Stierle, Veronika, and Riedl, Bernard. 2015. “Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems,” International Journal of Forecasting 31 (3): 943951.
Jones, Randall J. Jr. 2008. “The State Of Presidential Election Forecasting: The 2004 Experience.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 310–21.
Jones, Randall J. Jr. and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. “Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation.” Presented at the 2013 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Skalaban, Andrew. 1989. “Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?” British Journal of Political Science 19 (1): 146153.
Lichtman, Alan J. 2005. “The Keys To The White House: An Index Forecast For 2008.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 301–09.

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