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Did Bush Voters Cause Obama's Victory?

  • Arthur Lupia (a1)


In the 2008 election, Barack Obama's campaign brought many new voters to the polls. Were these new voters necessary for Obama's victory? In this study, I find that they were not. The basis of this finding is an examination of decisions made by people who voted for George W. Bush in 2004. I show that Bush voters' decisions not to vote or to support Obama were a sufficient condition for Obama's victory.



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American National Election Studies (ANES). 2008. The ANES 2008 Time Series Study. Stanford University and the University of Michigan.
McDonald, Michael P. 2008. “The Return of the Voter: Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election.” The Forum 6 (4).
Weisman, Jonathan, and Meckler, Laura. 2008. “Obama Sweeps to Historic Victory.” Wall Street Journal, November 6, A1.


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