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Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls: The 2010 Midterm Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 October 2010

Joseph Bafumi
Affiliation:
Dartmouth College
Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Christopher Wlezien
Affiliation:
Temple University

Extract

In this article, we present a forecast of the 2010 midterm House election based on information available in early July 2010. We combine this forecast with a note of caution, explaining why electoral circumstances might lead our forecast to err. Finally, we present guidance regarding how to update the electoral forecast for 2010 based on new information that will become available leading up to Election Day.

Type
Symposium
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2010

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References

Bafumi, Joseph, Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2008. “Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls.” In Elections and Exit Polling, ed. Alvey, Wendy and Scheuren, Fritz, 118–23. New York: Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Bafumi, Joseph, Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2010. “Balancing, Generic Polls, and Midterm Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 72: 705–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, and Erikson, Robert S.. 2002. “The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 64: 969–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar