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Reassessing the Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24

  • Nipa J. Bhatt (a1) and Rajmal Jain (a2)

Abstract

Predictions of sunspot cycle are important due to their space weather effects. Bhatt et al. (2009) predicted sunspot cycle 24 (Maximum amplitude: 92.8±19.6; Timing:October 2012±4 months) using relative sunspot number (International Sunspot Number), and average geomagnetic activity index aa considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum. Owing to the extended solar minimum till 2009, we re-examine our prediction model. Also, the newly calibrated international sunspot number reduces many discrepancies in the old dataset and is available from Solar Influences Data Center (SIDC) website. Considering 2009 as sunspot minimum year and newly calibrated international sunspot number, (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 118.5±24.4 (observed = 113.3±0.1), (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months (observed in February 2014). Our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator for the predictability of cycle 25.

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Bhatt, N. J., Jain, R., & Aggarwal, M., 2009, Solar Phys., 260, 225
Clette, F. & Laure, L. 2016, Solar Phys., vol. 291, Issue 9–10, 2629
Jain, R., 1997, Solar Phys., 176, 431
Owens, M. J., Lockwood, M., Barnard, L., & Davis, C. J. 2011, Geophys.Research Letters, 38
Pesnell, W. D., 2016, Space Weather, 14, 10
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