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Transient Modeling in Simulation of Hospital Operations for Emergency Response

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 June 2012

Jomon Aliyas Paul ,
Santhosh K. George ,
Pengfei Yi  and
Li Lin
Jomon Aliyas Paul
Affiliation:
Department of Industrial Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
Santhosh K. George
Affiliation:
Department of Industrial Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
Pengfei Yi
Affiliation:
Department of Industrial Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
Li Lin*
Affiliation:
Department of Industrial Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
*
Dr. Li Lin 438 Bell Hall, Department of Industrial Engineering University at Buffalo Buffalo, New York 14260, USA E-mail lilin@eng.buffalo.edu
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Abstract

Rapid estimates of hospital capacity after an event that may cause a disaster can assist disaster-relief efforts. Due to the dynamics of hospitals, following such an event, it is necessary to accurately model the behavior of the system. A transient modeling approach using simulation and exponential functions is presented, along with its applications in an earthquake situation. The parameters of the exponential model are regressed using outputs from designed simulation experiments. The developed model is capable of representing transient, patient waiting times during a disaster. Most importantly, the modeling approach allows real-time capacity estimation of hospitals of various sizes and capabilities. Further, this research is an analysis of the effects of priority-based routing of patients within the hospital and the effects on patient waiting times determined using various patient mixes. The model guides the patients based on the severity of injuries and queues the patients requiring critical care depending on their remaining survivability time. The model also accounts the impact of prehospital transport time on patient waiting time.

Keywords

arrival ratemeta-modelpatient mixregressionseverity typesimulationsurvivability timetransient
Type
Original Research
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 21 , Issue 4 , August 2006 , pp. 223 - 236
Copyright
Copyright © World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine 2006

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