Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ph5wq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T22:51:29.928Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Following Through on an Intention to Vote: Present Bias and Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 November 2018

Seth J. Hill*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: sjhill@ucsd.edu

Abstract

Many citizens express an intention to vote but then fail to follow through on their motivation. It is well known that impulsiveness contributes to unsound behaviors with adverse individual consequences like smoking, overeating, and undersaving. I apply these findings and theory to political participation and argue that present bias is also likely to limit collective behaviors. Those who desire to act are challenged by impulsiveness in following through on their motivation. In a nationally representative survey merged to administrative records, those with present bias are around ten points less likely to vote. Importantly, those with present bias are less likely to vote even after expressing pre-election intention to do so. Along with a formal decision-theoretic model of turnout with present bias, the results provide a new framework to reason about the choice to vote, an alternative interpretation of the over-report of turnout, and have implications for policy approaches to promote individual action in the public interest.

Type
Research Note
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association, 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ainslie, G (1975) Specious Reward: A Behavioral Theory of Impulsiveness and Impulse Control. Psychological Bulletin 82(4), 463496.Google ScholarPubMed
Ali, SN (2011) Learning Self-Control. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, 857893.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ameriks, J, Caplin, A, Leahy, J Tyler, T (2007) Measuring Self-Control Problems. American Economic Review 97(3), 966972.Google Scholar
Angeletos, G-M, Laibson, D, Repetto, A, Tobacman, J Weinberg, S (2001) The Hyperbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(3), 4768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashraf, N, Karlan, D Yin, W (2006) Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence from a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines. Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(2), 635672.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bisin, A, Lizzeri, A Yariv, L (2015) Government Policy with Time Inconsistent Voters. American Economic Review 105(6), 17111737.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldeira, GA Patterson, SC (1982) Contextual Influences on Participation in U.S. State Legislative Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 7(3), 359381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dawes, C Loewen, PJ (2018) “Behavioural Anomalies Explain Variation in Voter Turnout.” In Peter John Loewen and Daniel Rubenson (eds), Duty and Choice: The Evolution of the Study of Voting and Voters. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Denny, K Doyle, O (2008) Political Interest, Cognitive Ability and Personality: Determinants of Voter Turnout in Britain. British Journal of Political Science 38(2), 291310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fowler, JH Kam, CD (2006) Patience as a Political Virtue: Delayed Gratification and Turnout. Political Behavior 28, 113128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraga, B Hersh, E (2010) Voting Costs and Voter Turnout in Competitive Elections. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5, 339356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freud, S (1956) Formulations on the Two Principles of Mental Functioning. In The Standard Edition of the Complete Psychological Works of Sigmund Freud, eds J Strachey and A Freud. London: Hogarth.Google Scholar
Gerber, AS, Huber, GA Hill, SJ (2013) Identifying the Effects of All-Mail Elections on Turnout: Staggered Reform in the Evergreen State. Political Science Research and Methods 1(1), 91116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, AS, Huber, GA, Doherty, D, Dowling, CM Hill, SJ (2013) Do Perceptions of Ballot Secrecy Influence Turnout? Results from a Field Experiment. American Journal of Political Science 57(3), 537551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, DP, McGrath, MC Aronow, PM (2013) Field Experiments and the Study of Voter Turnout. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 23(1), 2748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbein, JB (2017) Childhood Skill Development and Adult Political Participation. American Political Science Review 111(3), 572583.Google Scholar
Key, VO (1958) Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups. New York: Crowell.Google Scholar
Leighley, JE Nagler, J (2014) Who Votes Now? Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Meier, S Sprenger, C (2010) Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2(1), 193210.Google Scholar
Meier, S Sprenger, CD (2015) Temporal Stability of Time Preferences. Review of Economics and Statistics 97(2), 273286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meredith, M (2009) Persistence in Political Participation. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4(3), 187209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Panagopoulos, C (2013) Extrinsic Rewards, Intrinsic Motivation and Voting. Journal of Politics 75(1), 266280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samuelson, PA (1937) A Note on Measurement of Utility. Review of Economic Studies 4(2), 155161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thaler, RH (1981) Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency. Economics Letters 8(3), 201207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Volpp, KG, Troxel, AB, Pauly, MV, Glick, HA, Puig, A, Asch, DA, Galvin, R, Zhu, J, Wan, F, DeGuzman, J, Corbett, E, Weiner, J Audrain-McGovern, J (2009) A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Financial Incentives for Smoking Cessation. New England Journal of Medicine 360(7), 699709.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Supplementary material: Link
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Hill supplementary material

Hill supplementary material 1

Download Hill supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 293.6 KB