Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-01T02:27:28.841Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Are voters' views about proportional outcomes shaped by partisan preferences? A survey experiment in the context of a real election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 June 2021

André Blais Open the ORCID record for André Blais [Opens in a new window] ,
Semra Sevi Open the ORCID record for Semra Sevi [Opens in a new window]  and
Carolina Plescia Open the ORCID record for Carolina Plescia [Opens in a new window]
André Blais
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Semra Sevi*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Carolina Plescia
Affiliation:
University of Vienna, Wien, Austria
*
*Corresponding author. Email: semra.sevi@umontreal.ca
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We examine citizens' evaluations of majoritarian and proportional electoral outcomes through an innovative experimental design. We ask respondents to react to six possible electoral outcomes during the 2019 Canadian federal election campaign. There are two treatments: the performance of the party and the proportionality of electoral outcomes. There are three performance conditions: the preferred party's vote share corresponds to vote intentions as reported in the polls at the time of the survey (the reference), or it gets 6 percentage points more (fewer) votes. There are two electoral outcome conditions: disproportional and proportional. We find that proportional outcomes are slightly preferred and that these preferences are partly conditional on partisan considerations. In the end, however, people focus on the ultimate outcome, that is, who is likely to form the government. People are happy when their party has a plurality of seats and is therefore likely to form the government, and relatively unhappy otherwise. We end with a discussion of the merits and limits of our research design.

Keywords

Selection modelssurvey methodology
Type
Research Note
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , April 2022 , pp. 445 - 451
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aarts, K and Thomassen, J (2008) Satisfaction with democracy: do institutions matter? Electoral Studies 27, 5–18.10.1016/j.electstud.2007.11.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, CJ and Guillory, CA (1997) Political institutions and satisfaction with democracy: a cross-national analysis of consensus and majoritarian systems. American Political Science Review 91, 66–81.10.2307/2952259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banducci, SA and Karp, JA (1999) Perceptions of fairness and support for proportional representation. Political Behavior 21, 217–238.10.1023/A:1022083416605CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birch, S (2008) Electoral institutions and popular confidence in electoral processes: a cross-national analysis. Electoral studies 27, 305–320.10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Criado, H and Herreros, F (2007) Political support: taking into account the institutional context. Comparative Political Studies 40, 1511–1532.10.1177/0010414006292117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, RJ (2004) Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices: The Erosion of Political Support in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199268436.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, RJ (2014) Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Los Angeles: Sage.Google Scholar
Fournier, P, van der Kolk, H, Kenneth Carty, R, Blais, A and Rose, J (2011) When Citizens Decide: Lessons From Citizen Assemblies on Electoral Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199567843.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, R, Blais, A, Brady, H and Crête, J (1992) Letting the People Decide: The Dynamics of Canadian Elections. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A (1999) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Massicotte, L (2008) Electoral reform in Canada. In Blais, A (ed). To Keep or To Change First Past the Post? The Politics of Electoral Reform. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 112–139.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199539390.003.0005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Plescia, C, Blais, A and Högström, J (2020) Do people want a ‘fairer'electoral system? An experimental study in four countries. European Journal of Political Research 59(4), 733–751.10.1111/1475-6765.12372CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, GB Jr (2000) Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Reiljan, A (2019) Fear and loathing across party lines (also) in Europe: affective polarization in European party systems. European Journal of Political Research 59(2), 376–396.10.1111/1475-6765.12351CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stephenson, LB, Lawlor, A, Cross, WP, Blais, A and Gidengil, E (2019) Provincial Battles, National Prize? Elections in a Federal State. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Stiers, D, Daoust, J-F and Blais, A (2018) What makes people believe that their party won the election? Electoral Studies 55, 21–29.10.1016/j.electstud.2018.07.002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Blais et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IL8WSB
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Blais et al. supplementary material

Blais et al. supplementary material

Download Blais et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 309.7 KB