Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
×
Home

A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival

  • Daina Chiba (a1), Lanny W. Martin (a2) and Randolph T. Stevenson (a3)

Abstract

Theories of coalition politics in parliamentary democracies have suggested that government formation and survival are jointly determined outcomes. An important empirical implication of these theories is that the sample of observed governments analyzed in studies of government survival may be nonrandomly selected from the population of potential governments. This can lead to serious inferential problems. Unfortunately, current empirical models of government survival are unable to account for the possible biases arising from nonrandom selection. In this study, we use a copula-based framework to assess, and correct for, the dependence between the processes of government formation and survival. Our results suggest that existing studies of government survival, by ignoring the selection problem, overstate the substantive importance of several covariates commonly included in empirical models.

Copyright

Corresponding author

Footnotes

Hide All

Authors' note: Supplementary materials for this article are available on the Political Analysis web site. Replication files are available on the Political Analysis Dataverse at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/26966.

Footnotes

References

Hide All
Achen, Christopher H. 1986. The statistical analysis of quasi-experiments. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Bäck, Hanna, and Dumont, Patrick. 2007. Combining large-N and small-n strategies: The way forward in coalition research. West European Politics 30(3): 467501.
Boehmke, Frederick J., Morey, Daniel S., and Shannon, Megan. 2006. Selection bias and continuous-time duration models: Consequences and a proposed solution. American Journal of Political Science 50(1): 192207.
Bourguignon, François, and Fournier, Martin. 2007. Selection bias corrections based on the multinomial logit model: Monte Carlo comparisons. Journal of Economic Surveys 21(1): 174205.
Browne, Eric C., Frendreis, John P., and Gleiber, Dennis W. 1984. An ‘events’ approach to the problem of cabinet stability. Comparative Political Studies 17:167–97.
Cann, Damon M. 2008. Modeling committee chair selection in the U.S. House of Representatives. Political Analysis 16(3): 274–89.
Cunningham, David E. 2011. Barriers to peace in civil war. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
De Swaan, Abram. 1973. Coalition theories and cabinet formations: A study of formal theories of coalition formation applied to nine European parliaments after 1918. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Co.
Diermeier, Daniel. 2006. Coalition government. In The Oxford handbook of political economy, eds. Weingast, Barry R. and Wittman, A., 162–79. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Diermeier, Daniel, Eraslan, Hülya, and Merlo, Antonio. 2003. A structural model of government formation. Econometrica 71(1): 2770.
Diermeier, Daniel, and Stevenson, Randolph T. 2000. Cabinet terminations and critical events. American Political Science Review 94(3): 627–40.
Diermeier, Daniel, and Stevenson, Randy T. 1999. Cabinet survival and competing risks. American Journal of Political Science 43(4): 1051–68.
Dubin, Jeffrey A., and Rivers, Douglas. 1989. Selection bias in linear regression, logit and probit models. Sociological Methods and Research 18(2): 360–90.
Gordon, Sanford C. 2002. Stochastic dependence in competing risks. American Journal of Political Science 46(1): 200217.
Heberlig, Eric S. 2003. Congressional parties, fundraising, and committee ambition. Political Research Quarterly 56(2): 151–61.
Heckman, James J. 1976. The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection and limited dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5(4): 475–92.
Indridason, Indridi H. 2008. Does terrorism influence domestic politics? Coalition formation and terrorist incidents. Journal of Peace Research 45(2): 241–59.
Katz, Jonathan N., and Sala, Brian R. 1996. Careerism, committee assignments, and the electoral connection. American Political Science Review 90(1): 2133.
King, Gary, Alt, James E., Burns, Nancy E., and Laver, Michael. 1990. A unified model of cabinet dissolution in parliamentary democracies. American Journal of Political Science 34(3): 846–71.
Laakso, Markku, and Taagepera, Rein. 1979. Effective number of parties: A measure with application to West Europe. Comparative Political Studies 12(3): 327.
Laver, M. J., and Budge, Ian. 1992. Party policy and government coalitions. New York: St. Martin's Press.
Laver, Michael, and Shepsle, Kenneth A. 1996. Making and breaking governments: Cabinets and legislatures in parliamentary democracies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Laver, Michael, and Schofield, Norman. 1990. Multiparty government: The politics of coalition in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lupia, Arthur, and Strom, Kaare. 1995. Coalition termination and the strategic timing of parliamentary elections. American Political Science Review 89(3): 648–65.
Martin, Lanny W., and Stevenson, Randolph T. 2001. Government formation in parliamentary democracies. American Journal of Political Science 45(1): 3350.
Martin, Lanny W., and Stevenson, Randolph T. 2010. The conditional impact of incumbency on government formation. American Political Science Review 104(3):503–18.
McFadden, Daniel L. 1973. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behaviour. In Frontiers in Econometrics, ed. Zarembka, P. New York: Academic Press.
Powell, G. Bingham. 1982. Contemporary democracies: Participation, stability, and violence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Prieger, James E. 2002. A flexible parametric selection model for non-normal data with application to health care usage. Journal of Applied Econometrics 17(4): 367–92.
Sartori, Anne E. 2003. An estimator for some binary-outcome selection models without exclusion restrictions. Political Analysis 11(2): 111–38.
Sklar, A. 1959. Fonctions de Répartition à n Dimensions et Leurs Marges. Publications de l'Institut de Statistique de L’Université de Paris 8:229–31.
Trivedi, Pravin K., and Zimmer, David M. 2005. Copula modeling: An introduction for practitioners. Boston, MA: Now Publishers Inc.
Warwick, Paul. 1979. The durability of coalition governments in parliamentary democracies. Comparative Political Studies 11(4): 465–98.
Warwick, Paul. 1992. Economic trends and government survival in West European parliamentary democracies. American Political Science Review 86(4): 875–87.
Warwick, Paul. 1994. Government survival in parliamentary democracies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Warwick, Paul. 2005. When far apart becomes too far apart: Evidence for a threshold effect in coalition formation. British Journal of Political Science 35(3): 383401.
Warwick, Paul. 2006. Policy horizons and parliamentary government. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Political Analysis
  • ISSN: 1047-1987
  • EISSN: 1476-4989
  • URL: /core/journals/political-analysis
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×
MathJax
Type Description Title
UNKNOWN
Supplementary materials

Chiba et al. supplementary material
Supplementary Material

 Unknown (139 KB)
139 KB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed