Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T09:59:13.523Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Fatalism: thoughts about tomorrow's sea battle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 February 2019

Abstract

The hold of the fatalistic reasoning that Aristotle criticizes is dependent, first, on the idea, articulated by Frege, that the real candidates for truth and falsity are something other than particular contingent happenings such as affirmations or thinkings, and, second, on the idea that the demand for speculative reflection overrides any demand for practical deliberation. Standard challenges to the reasoning embody the same presuppositions and so simply perpetuate the core confusions. They do so most fundamentally in the assumption that we need a ‘metaphysical’ grounding for our idea of ourselves as agents who have influence on the course of events.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Philosophy 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Inwagen, Peter van, ‘Fatalism’, Fischer, Martin and Todd, Patrick (eds.), Freedom, Fatalism and Foreknowledge (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), 55Google Scholar.

2 Aristotle, On Interpretation, trans. Edghill, E. M., The Works of Aristotle, vol. I, ed. Ross, W. D. (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1928). Ch. 9, 18a–18bGoogle Scholar.

3 Unreferenced epigraph to Lucas, J.R., The Future (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1989)Google Scholar. See also Ryle, Gilbert, ‘It was to be’, in Dilemmas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1954)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

4 Wittgenstein, Ludwig, Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus, trans. Pears, D.F. and McGuinness, B.F. (London: Routlcdge and Kegan Paul, 1961), 6.373, 6.374Google Scholar.

5 Wittgenstein, Ludwig, Notebooks 1914–1916, trans. Anscombe, G.E.M. (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1969), 88Google Scholar.

6 And, for that matter, that nothing else that happens between now and then will have any impact on whether or not there is a sea battle tomorrow.

7 I will not explicitly consider where the fatalistic concerns of Christian and Islamic theology and philosophy, deriving from ideas of God's foreknowledge, fit into this.

8 Reconstructed, using Aristotle's own words, from On Interpretation, op. cit. note 2, chapter 9.

9 Byrd, Jeremy, ‘The necessity of tomorrow's sea battle’, Southern Journal of Philosophy, 48 (2010). 167CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Academic Search Premier, EBSCOhost, viewed 10 May 2018.

10 Prior, A.N., ‘It was to be’, Fischer, Martin and Todd, Patrick (eds), Freedom, Fatalism and Foreknowledge (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015). 319Google Scholar.

11 Anscombe, G.E.M., Intention (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1979), 87Google Scholar.

12 Aristotle, Categories, in Barnes, Jonathan ed., The Complete Works: The Revised Oxford Translation (Princeton University Press, 1984), 14b19-23Google Scholar. See also: ‘It is not because we think that you are white, that you are white, but because you are white we who say this have the truth’. Aristotle, Metaphysics, trans. Ross, W.D. in The basic works of Aristotle, ed. McKeon, Richard, (New York: Random House, 1941), 1051b 5-8Google Scholar.

13 Prior, op. cit. note 10, 319. Emphasis added.

14 A substantial portion of recent literature on so called ‘future contingents’ explores variations on this proposal. See section 5.

15 Lucas, J.R., A Treatise on Time and Space (London: Methuen, 1973), 4950Google Scholar.

16 Linda Zagzebski, ‘Omniscience and the arrow of time’, in Fischer and Todd (eds.), op. cit. note 10. 197.

17 I suspect that ‘Cartesian’ imagery of the self as an ethereal, insubstantial, entity is often in play at some level in discussion of these issues.

18 Perloff, Michael and Belnap, Nuel, ‘Future contingents and the battle tomorrow’, The Review of Metaphysics 64 (2011), 584Google Scholar.

19 Sweeney, Paula, ‘Future contingents, indeterminacy and context’, Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 96 (2015), 408Google Scholar.

20 Kodaj, Daniel, ‘Open future and modal anti-realism’, Philosophical Studies 168 (2014)Google Scholar.

21 Barnes, Elizabeth and Cameron, Ross, ‘The Open Future: Bivalence, Determinism and Ontology’, Philosophical Studies 146 (2009), 298Google Scholar. While I believe the intent is relatively clear from these freestanding quotations the sceptical reader may need to look at the context of the remarks in order to remove any possibility of doubt. For other relevant articulations see De Florio, Ciro, ‘In defense of the timeless solution to the problem of human free will and divine foreknowledge’, International Journal of the Philosophy of Religion 78 (2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Peter Øhrstrøm, Peter and Per Hasle, ‘Future Contingents’, in Edward N. Zalta (ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (https://plato.stanford.edu); Gaskin, Richard, ‘Fatalism, bivalence and the past’, The Philosophical Quarterly 48 (1998)Google Scholar; Denyer, N., Time, action and necessity (London: Duckworth, 1981), 70Google Scholar.

22 I highlight this in order to stress that my target is not everything that has, within philosophy, been labelled ‘metaphysics’.

23 Øhrstrøm and Hasle, op. cit. note 21.

24 See, for example, Lucas op. cit. note 15, 50.

25 Jan Łukasiewicz, 1967, ‘On Determinism’, in MacCall, Storrs (ed.) Polish Logic (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1967)Google Scholar

26 Hartshorne, Charles, ‘The Meaning of “Is going to be”’, Mind 74 (1965)Google Scholar. Prior, op. cit. note 10.

27 Barnes and Cameron, op. cit, note 21.

28 MacFarlane, John, ‘Future contingents and relative truth’, The Philosophical Quarterly 53 (2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

29 Geach, P., Providence and evil (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977)Google Scholar; Patrick Todd, ‘On behalf of a mutable future’, Synthese (2016).

30 Todd, Patrick, ‘Future Contingents are all False! On Behalf of a Russellian Open Future’, Mind 125 (2016)Google Scholar. A commitment to a redundancy theory of truth might tempt one to reject all but the Ockhamist view out of hand. From the perspective of that theory, there will seem something extremely odd in the suggestion that while assertions of the form ‘There will be a sea battle tomorrow’ or ‘It will come down heads’ are quite in order the response ‘That's true’ is philosophically problematic. But the way in which ascriptions of ‘true’ and ‘false’ operate in the context of assertions in the future tense is considerably more complex than the redundancy theory would have us believe. For a particularly illuminating discussion of issues that arise here see Frank Ebersole, ‘Was the sea-battle rigged?’, in his Things We Know (Xlibris, 2001).

31 I am indebted to Chryssi Sidiropoulou for confirmation that, while matters are not completely straightforward, this translation is accurate from the point of view of my concerns.

32 Frege, Gottlob, 1956, ‘The Thought: A Logical Inquiry’, Mind 65 (1956), 292, 307, 310Google Scholar.

33 Setting aside possible feedback complications, of the kind explored by Mackay, that may arise in any attempt to predict what I myself will do. See MacKay, D.M., ‘On the Logical Indeterminacy of a Free Choice’, Mind 69 (1960)Google Scholar.

34 Of course, if he can tell what is going to happen without taking account of any contribution he might make then the possibility that his decision and action will play any role in bringing about or preventing the event is excluded. But this platitude clearly poses no general fatalist threat.

35 Op. cit. note 2, chapter 9, 18b.

36 Bernstein, Mark, ‘Fatalism’, in Kane, Robert (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Free Will (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), 71Google Scholar.

37 Or whatever variants on these may seem more suitable in the light of potentially relevant and awkward questions about language, dating systems and proper names.

38 And, with that, nothing will satisfy Bernstein's specification of what a proposition is.

39 For more on what it will be a saying or thinking of see Levi, Don, ‘The Omniscient Being Knows’, in Gustafsson, Kronqvist, and Nykänen (eds.), Ethics and the Philosophy of Culture: Wittgensteinian Approaches (Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2013)Google Scholar.