Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

  • Shaun W. Molloy (a1), Allan H. Burbidge (a1), Sarah Comer (a2) and Robert A. Davis (a1)

Abstract

Translocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris
      Available formats
      ×

      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris
      Available formats
      ×

Copyright

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Corresponding author

(Corresponding author) E-mail shaunecologist@gmail.com

Footnotes

Hide All
*

Also at: Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Science and Conservation Division, Perth, Australia

Supplementary material for this article is available at https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605318000923

Footnotes

References

Hide All
Adhikari, D., Barik, S.K. & Upadhaya, K. (2012) Habitat distribution modelling for reintroduction of Ilex khasiana Purk., a Critically Endangered tree species of northeastern India. Ecological Engineering, 40, 3743.
Agresti, A. & Kateri, M. (2011) Categorical Data Analysis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany.
Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon, R. (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 12231232.
Araújo, M.B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. (2011) Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecology Letters, 14, 484492.
Australian Government (2018) Western Ground Parrot—Emergency Intervention. Http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-birds-by-2020/western-ground-parrot [accessed 14 November 2018].
Barbet-Massin, M., Jiguet, F., Albert, C.H. & Thuiller, W. (2012) Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: how, where and how many? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3, 327338.
Bay, R.A., Harrigan, R.J., Underwood, V.L., Gibbs, H.L., Smith, T.B. & Ruegg, K. (2018) Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird. Science, 359, 8386.
Beaumont, L.J., Hughes, L. & Poulsen, M. (2005) Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species’ current and future distributions. Ecological Modelling, 186, 251270.
Booth, T.H., Nix, H.A., Busby, J.R. & Hutchinson, M.F. (2014) BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MAXENT studies. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 19.
Brambilla, M., Pedrini, P., Rolando, A. & Chamberlain, D.E. (2016) Climate change will increase the potential conflict between skiing and high-elevation bird species in the Alps. Journal of Biogeography, 43, 22992309.
Brook, B.W., Sodhi, N.S. & Bradshaw, C.J.A. (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 23, 453460.
Burbidge, A.H., Rolfe, J., McNee, S., Newbey, B. & Williams, M. (2007) Monitoring population change in the cryptic and threatened Western Ground Parrot in relation to fire. Emu, 107, 7988.
Burbidge, A., Comer, S., Lees, C., Page, M. & Stanley, F. (2016) Creating a Future for the Western Ground Parrot: Workshop Report. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Australia.
Cahill, A.E., Aiello-Lammens, M.E., Fisher-Reid, M.C., Hua, X., Karanewsky, C.J., Ryu, H.Y. et al. (2013) How does climate change cause extinction? Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 280, 20121890.
CSIRO & BoM (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation & Bureau of Meteorology) (2017) Climate Change in Australia. CSIRO, Canberra, Australia and BoM, Melbourne, Australia. Http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/ [accessed 10 May 2017].
Davis, R.A., Valentine, L.E., Craig, M.D., Wilson, B., Bancroft, W.J. & Mallie, M. (2014) Impact of Phytophthora-dieback on birds in Banksia woodlands in south west Western Australia. Biological Conservation, 171, 136144.
Department of Parks and Wildlife (2007) NatureMap: Mapping Western Australia's Biodiversity. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Australia. Https://naturemap.dpaw.wa.gov.au/ [accessed 1 May 2018].
Department of Parks and Wildlife (2014) South Coast Threatened Birds Recovery Plan. Western Australian Wildlife Management Program No. 44. Department of Parks and Wildlife, Perth, Australia.
Doherty, T.S., Davis, R.A., van Etten, E.J.B., Algar, D., Collier, N., Dickman, C.R. et al. (2015) A continental-scale analysis of feral cat diet in Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 964975.
Elith, J. & Leathwick, J.R. (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40, 677–697.
Elith, J., Kearney, M. & Phillips, S. (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 330342.
Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y.E. & Yates, C.J. (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions, 17, 4357.
Engler, J.O., Stiels, D., Schidelko, K., Strubbe, D., Quillfeldt, P. & Brambilla, M. (2017) Avian SDMs: current state, challenges, and opportunities. Journal of Avian Biology, 48, 14831504.
Flemons, P., Raymond, B., Brenton, P. & Belbin, L. (2010) Atlas of Living Australia. Https://www.ala.org.au/ [accessed 1 May 2018].
Fortini, L.B., Kaiser, L.R., Vorsino, A.E., Paxton, E.H. & Jacobi, J.D. (2017) Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 91199130.
Fourcade, Y., Engler, J.O., Rödder, D. & Secondi, J. (2014) Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias. PLOS ONE, 9, e97122.
Gibson, L., Barrett, B. & Burbidge, A. (2007) Dealing with uncertain absences in habitat modelling: a case study of a rare ground-dwelling parrot. Diversity & Distributions, 13, 704713.
Grenouillet, G., Buisson, L., Casajus, N. & Lek, S. (2011) Ensemble modelling of species distribution: the effects of geographical and environmental ranges. Ecography, 34, 917.
Hällfors, M.H., Liao, J., Dzurisin, J., Grundel, R., Hyvärinen, M., Towle, K. et al. (2016) Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change. Ecological Applications, 26, 11541169.
Hijmans, R.J. (2012) Cross-validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model. Ecology, 93, 679688.
Hijmans, R.J. & Graham, C.H. (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 22722281.
Hobbs, R.J. (2001) Synergisms among habitat fragmentation, livestock grazing, and biotic invasions in southwestern Australia. Conservation Biology, 15, 15221528.
Hoffmann, A.A. & Sgrò, C.M. (2011) Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature, 470, 479485.
Hopper, S.D. & Gioia, P. (2004) The southwest Australian floristic region: evolution and conservation of a global hot spot of biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 35, 623650.
Jetz, W. & Freckleton, R.P. (2015) Towards a general framework for predicting threat status of data-deficient species from phylogenetic, spatial and environmental information. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B, 370, 20140016.
Jiménez-Valverde, A. (2012) Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 498507.
Kearney, M., Phillips, B.L., Tracy, C.R., Christian, K.A., Betts, G. & Porter, W.P. (2008) Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates. Ecography, 31, 423434.
Kim, H.M., Webster, P.J. & Curry, J.A. (2012) Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L10701.
Lobo, J.M., Jiménez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145151.
Mitchell, N., Hipsey, M.R., Arnall, S., McGrath, G., Tareque, H.B., Kuchling, G. et al. (2012) Linking eco-energetics and eco-hydrology to select sites for the assisted colonization of Australia's rarest reptile. Biology, 2, 125.
Moise, A., Wilson, L., Grose, M., Whetton, P., Watterson, I., Bhend, J. et al. (2015) Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models over the Australian region to inform confidence in projections. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 65, 1953.
Molloy, S.W., Davis, R.A. & Van Etten, E.J.B. (2014) Species distribution modelling using bioclimatic variables to determine the impacts of a changing climate on the western ringtail possum (Pseudocheirus occidentalis; Pseudocheiridae). Environmental Conservation, 41, 176–186.
Molloy, S.W., Davis, R.A. & Van Etten, E.J.B. (2016) An evaluation and comparison of spatial modelling applications for the management of biodiversity: a case study on the fragmented landscapes of south-western Australia. Pacific Conservation Biology, 22, 338349.
Molloy, S.W., Davis, R.A., Dunlop, J.A. & van Etten, E.J.B. (2017) Applying surrogate species presences to correct sample bias in species distribution models: a case study using the Pilbara population of the northern quoll. Nature Conservation, 18, 27–46.
Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A. & Kent, J. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853858.
Osborne, P.E. & Seddon, P.J. (2012) Selecting suitable habitats for reintroductions: variation, change and the role of species distribution modelling. In Reintroduction Biology: Integrating Science and Management (eds Ewen, J.G., Armstrong, D.P., Parker, K.A. & Seddon, P.J.), pp. 73104. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
Payne, B.L. & Bro-Jørgensen, J. (2016) A framework for prioritizing conservation translocations to mimic natural ecological processes under climate change: a case study with African antelopes. Biological Conservation, 201, 230236.
Phillips, S.J. (2008) Transferability, sample selection bias and background data in presence-only modelling: a response to Peterson et al. (2007). Ecography, 31, 272278.
Phillips, S.J. & Dudík, M. (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161175.
Pliscoff, P. & Fuentes-Castillo, T. (2011) Modeling of the species distribution and ecosystems in time and space: a review of new available tools and approaches. Revista de Geografía Norte Grande, 48, 6179.
Revelle, W. (2014) psych: Procedures for Psychological, Psychometric, and Personality Research. R package version 1.0–95. Http://www2.uaem.mx/r-mirror/web/packages/psych/ [accessed 14 December 2018].
Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H. et al. (2016) Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature, 534, 631–639.
Seddon, P.J., Strauss, W.M. & Innes, J. (2012) Animal translocations: what are they and why do we do them? In Reintroduction Biology: Integrating Science and Management (eds Ewen, J.G., Armstrong, D.P., Parker, K.A. & Seddon, P.J.), pp. 1–32. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
Seddon, P.J., Griffiths, C.J., Soorae, P.S. & Armstrong, D.P. (2014) Reversing defaunation: restoring species in a changing world. Science, 345, 406412.
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S.E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E.M. et al. (2015) Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347, 1259855.
Stein, B.A., Glick, P., Edelson, N. & Staudt, A. (eds) (2014) Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC, USA.
Swets, J.A. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 12851293.
Taylor, K.E., Stouffer, R.J. & Meehl, G.A. (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485498.
Thomas, C.D. (2011) Translocation of species, climate change, and the end of trying to recreate past ecological communities. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 26, 216221.
Thuiller, W., Georges, D. & Engler, R. (2013) biomod2: Ensemble platform for species distribution modeling. R package version 3.0.3. Https://cran.r-project.org/package=biomod2 [accessed 13 December 2018].
Thuiller, W., Georges, D. & Engler, R. (2016) biomod2: Ensemble platform for species distribution modeling. R package version 3.37. Https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/biomod2/biomod2.pdf [accessed 7 June 2017].
Tsoar, A., Allouche, O., Steinitz, O., Rotem, D. & Kadmon, R. (2007) A comparative evaluation of presence-only methods for modelling species distribution. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 397405.
Yates, C.J., Elith, J., Latimer, A.M., Le Maitre, D., Midgley, G.F., Schurr, F.M. & West, A.G. (2010) Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: opportunities and challenges. Austral Ecology, 35, 374391.

Keywords

Type Description Title
PDF
Supplementary materials

Molloy et al. supplementary material
Molloy et al. supplementary material 1

 PDF (289 KB)
289 KB

Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

  • Shaun W. Molloy (a1), Allan H. Burbidge (a1), Sarah Comer (a2) and Robert A. Davis (a1)

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed