A quantitative risk assessment methodology is outlined for the source term for the proposed geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The methodology involves construction of a logical event tree to identify scenarios for the success or failure of the waste isolation system. Uncertainties in the intervening events between initial conditions and consequences can be quantified using probability distributions for steps along each scenario path. Likelihood is quantified according to the frequencies for each split fraction in the event tree. The result is a calculated probability of frequency curve for the release rate(s) of the modeled radionuclide(s).