1.Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2016 Year in Review (2017).
2.Energy Information Administration: Electric Power Monthly (February 2017).
3.International Energy Agency: 2015 Snapshot of Global Photovoltaic Markets (2016).
4.GTM Research: U.S. PV System Pricing H1: 2017: Breakdowns and Forecasts (2017).
5.GTM Research: Global Solar Demand Monitor: Q1 2017 Market Trends Update (2017).
6.Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2015 Year in Review (2016).
7.Haegel, N.M., Margolis, R., Buonassisi, T., Feldman, D., Froitzheim, A., Garabedian, R., Green, M., Glunz, S., Henning, H., Holder, B., Kaizuka, I., Kroposki, B., Matsubara, K., Niki, S., Sakurai, K., Schindler, R.A., Tumas, W., Weber, E.R., Wilson, G., Woodhouse, M., and Kurtz, S.: Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges. Science 356, 141–143 (2017).
8.Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (2007); Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (2011); Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (2014).
9.The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that solar will supply 5% of U.S. electricity in 2030 and 12% in 2050 in the 2017 World Energy Outlook reference case. Projections using NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System, which is used elsewhere in this paper, are for solar to supply 5% in 2030 and 17% in 2050.
10.Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2017. DOE/EIA-0484 (2017).
11.Cole, W.J., Frew, B., Gagnon, P., Richards, J., Sun, Y., Zuboy, J., Woodhouse, M., and Margolis, R.: SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future. NREL/TP-6A20-68105 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2017).
12.Jones-Albertus, R., Feldman, D., Fu, R., Horowitz, K., and Woodhouse, M.: Technology advances needed for photovoltaics to achieve widespread grid price parity. Prog. Photovoltaics 24, 1272 (2016).
13.Eurek, K., Cole, W., Bielen, D.A., Blair, N., Cohen, S., Frew, B., Ho, J., Krishnan, V., Mai, T., and Steinberg, D.: Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2016. NREL/TP-6A20-67067 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2016).
14.Fu, R., Feldman, D., Margolis, R., Woodhouse, M., and Ardani, K.: U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2017. NREL/TP-6A20-68925 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2017).
15.The Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) depreciation benefit allows the initial PV system cost basis to be allocated over a federally-set, 5 year schedule for use as a deduction when calculating taxable income. Because a depreciation expense works to lower taxable income, its value can be calculated by multiplying the owner’s tax rate by the present value of the deduction that is allowed during each year of the depreciation schedule. The value of depreciation can only be realized if the PV system owner has pending tax liabilities of sufficient size, which is one reason why many project developers, non-profits, and government entities partner with tax equity investors.
17.Mills, A. and Wiser, R.: Changes in the Economic Value of Variable Generation at High Penetration Levels. A Pilot Case Study of California. LBNL-5445E (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 2012).
18.Sivaram, V. and Kann, S.: Solar power needs a more ambitious cost target. Nat. Energy 1, 16036 (2016).
19.Denholm, P.; Clark, K., and O’Connell, M.: On the Path to SunShot: Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System. NREL/TP-6A20-65800 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2016).
20.Gevorgian, V. and O’Neill, B.: Advanced Grid-Friendly Controls Demonstration Project for Utility-Scale PV Power Plants. NREL/TP-5D00-65368 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2016).
21.Schmidt, O., Hawkes, A., Gambhir, A., and Staell, I.: The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates. Nat. Energy 2, 17110 (2017).
22.Denholm, P.; Eichman, J., and Margolis, R.: Evaluating the Technical and Economic Performance of PV Plus Storage Power Plants. NREL/TP-6A20-68737 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2017).
23.Cole, W.J., Marcy, C., Krishnan, V.K., and Margolis, R.: Utility-scale lithium-ion storage cost projections for use in capacity expansion models. In Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE North America Power System Meeting (IEEE, Denver, CO, 2016); p. 1.
24.Feldman, D., Margolis, R., Denholm, P., and Stekli, J.: Exploring the Potential Competitiveness of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Plus Batteries with Concentrating Solar Power, 2015–2030. NREL/TP-6A20-66592 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, 2016).