Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-skm99 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T14:46:45.485Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

AGENCY COSTS, RISK SHOCKS, AND INTERNATIONAL CYCLES

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2017

Marc-André Letendre*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Joel Wagner
Affiliation:
Bank of Canada
*
Address correspondence to: Marc-André Letendre, Department of Economics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4M4, Canada; e-mail: letendre@mcmaster.ca.

Abstract

We add agency costs into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously. Despite the fact that technology shocks are uncorrelated across countries, the relative price of investment is positively correlated across countries in our model, much as it is in detrended U.S./Euro-area data. We also find that financial frictions tend to increase the volatility of the terms of trade and the international correlations of consumption, hours worked, output, and investment. We then compare this model to an alternative model that also includes risk shocks. We use credit spread data (for the United States) to calibrate the AR(1) process for risk shocks. We find that risk shocks are too small to significantly impact the model's dynamics.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We would like to thank conference participants at the 2013 Canadian Economics Association meeting, Alok Johri, Bill Scarth, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada.

References

REFERENCES

Agénor, Richard-Pierre, Bratsiotis, George J., and Pfajfar, Damjan (2014) Credit frictions, collateral, and the cyclical behavior of the finance premium. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 985997.Google Scholar
Armington, Paul S. (1969) A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. International Monetary Fund Staff Paper 16, 159178.Google Scholar
Backus, David K., Kehoe, Patrick J., and Kydland, Finn E. (1992) International real business cycles. Journal of Political Economy 100, 745775.Google Scholar
Backus, David K., Kehoe, Patrick J., and Kydland, Finn E. (1994) Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: The J-curve. American Economic Review 84, 84103.Google Scholar
Baxter, Marianne and Crucini, Mario J. (1995) Business cycles and the asset structure of foreign trade. International Economic Review 36, 821854.Google Scholar
Benigno, Gianluca and Thoenissen, Christoph (2008) Consumption and real exchange rates with incomplete markets and non-traded goods. Journal of International Money and Finance 27, 926948.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben and Gertler, Mark (1989) Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. American Economic Review 79, 1431.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben, Gertler, Mark, and Gilchrist, Simon (1999) The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In Taylor, John B. and Woodford, Michael (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1C, pp. 13411393. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.Google Scholar
Bodenstein, Martin (2011) Closing large open economy models. Journal of International Economics 84, 160177.Google Scholar
Boileau, Martin (2002) Trade in capital goods and the volatility of net exports and the terms of trade. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26, 963984.Google Scholar
Carlstrom, Charles T. and Fuerst, Timothy S. (1997) Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: A computable general equilibrium analysis. American Economic Review 87, 893910.Google Scholar
Chari, V.V., Kehoe, Patrick J., and McGrattan, Ellen R. (2002) Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates? Review of Economic Studies 69, 533563.Google Scholar
Christiano, Laurence J., Motto, Roberto, and Rostagno, Massimo (2014) Risk shocks. American Economic Review 104, 2765.Google Scholar
Cogley, Timothy and Nason, James M. (1995) Output dynamics in real business cycle models. American Economic Review 85, 492511.Google Scholar
Correia, Isabel, Neves, Joao C., and Rebelo, Sergio T. (1995) Business cycles in a small open economy. European Economic Review 39, 10891113.Google Scholar
Corsetti, Giancarlo, Dedola, Luca, and Leduc, Sylvain (2008) International risk sharing and the transmission of productivity shocks. Review of Economic Studies 75, 443473.Google Scholar
Cummins, Jason G. and Violante, Giovanni L. (2002) Investment-specific technical change in the United States (1947–2000): Measurement and macroeconomic consequences. Review of Economic Dynamics 5, 243284.Google Scholar
Dmitriev, Alexandre and Roberts, Ivan (2012) International business cycles with complete markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36, 862875.Google Scholar
Fisher, Irving (1933) The debt-deflation theory of great depressions. Econometrica 1, 337357.Google Scholar
Fisher, Jonas D.M. (1999) Credit market imperfections and the heterogeneous response of firms to monetary shocks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31, 187211.Google Scholar
Fisher, Jonas D.M. (2006) The dynamic effect of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, Jonas D.M. (2009) Comment on “Letting different views about business cycles compete.” In Acemoglu, Daron, Rogoff, Kenneth, and Woodford, Michael (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp. 457474. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Floetotto, Max, Jaimovich, Nir, and Pruitt, Seth (2009) Markup Variation and Endogenous Fluctuations in the Price of Investment Goods. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System international finance discussion paper 968.Google Scholar
Gordon, Robert J. (1990) The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Greenwood, Jeremy, Hercowitz, Zvi, and Huffman, Gregory W. (1998) Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. American Economic Review 78, 402417.Google Scholar
Heathcote, Jonathan and Perri, Fabrizio (2002) Financial autarky and international business cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 601627.Google Scholar
Hooper, Peter, Johnson, Karen, and Marquez, Jaime (2000) Trade elasticities for G-7 countries. Princeton Studies in International Economics 87, 160.Google Scholar
Jaimovich, Nir and Rebelo, Sergio T. (2009) Can news about the future drive the business cycle? American Economic Review 99, 10971118.Google Scholar
Johri, Alok, Letendre, Marc-André, and Luo, Daqing (2011) Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment. Journal of Macroeconomics 33, 511523.Google Scholar
Justiniano, Alejandro, Primiceri, Giorgio E., and Tambalotti, Andrea (2011) Investment shocks and the relative price of investment. Review of Economic Dynamics 14, 101121.Google Scholar
King, Robert G., Plosser, Charles I., and Rebelo, Sergio T. (1988) Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model. Journal of Monetary Economics 21, 195232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Letendre, Marc-André and Luo, Daqing (2007) Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small-open economy model. Canadian Journal of Economics 40, 650678.Google Scholar
Mandelman, Federico S., Rabanal, Pau, Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., and Vilan, Diego (2011) Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: An empirical assessment. Review of Economic Dynamics 13, 136155.Google Scholar
Miyamoto, Wataru and Nguyen, Thuy L. (2013) Understanding the Cross Country Effects of US Technology Shocks. Working paper, Columbia University and Santa Clara University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Raffo, Andrea (2008) Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models. Journal of International Economics 75, 1429.Google Scholar
Raffo, Andrea (2010) Technology Shocks, Novel Implications for International Business Cycles. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System international finance discussion paper 992.Google Scholar
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie and Uribe, Martín (2011) Business cycles with a common trend in neutral and investment-specific productivity. Review of Economic Dynamics 14, 122135.Google Scholar
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie and Uribe, Martín (2012) What's news in business cycles. Econometrica 80, 27332764.Google Scholar
Stockman, Allan C. and Tesar, Linda L. (1995) Taste and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international comovements. American Economic Review 85, 168185.Google Scholar
Taylor, J. (1999) Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy: From Economic Design to Practical Operations. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company Inc.Google Scholar
Yao, Wen (2012) International Business Cycles and Financial Frictions. Bank of Canada working paper 19.Google Scholar