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Using APSIM to explore wheat yield response to climate change in the North China Plain: the predicted adaptation of wheat cultivar types to vernalization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 November 2012

Y. ZHANG ,
L. P. FENG ,
J. WANG ,
E. L. WANG  and
Y. L. XU
Y. ZHANG
Affiliation:
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 100193 Beijing, China
L. P. FENG*
Affiliation:
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 100193 Beijing, China
J. WANG
Affiliation:
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 100193 Beijing, China
E. L. WANG
Affiliation:
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Y. L. XU
Affiliation:
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 100081 Beijing, China
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: fenglp@cau.edu.cn
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Summary

Cultivar selection is a dominant factor in crop production to obtain high yield. While previous studies have evaluated a range of impacts and adaptation of climate change (CC) on crop yield, few studies have focused on evaluating the effectiveness of changing cultivars with different vernalization requirements as an adaptation. In the present study, mean and inter-annual variability of yield were quantified for three winter wheat cultivar types at three ecological sites (Shangzhuang in Beijing, Quzhou in Hebei and Huangfanqu in Henan) in the North China Plain, by linking a crop model and the outputs of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) for both the baseline (1961–90) and future SRES scenarios A2 and B2 (2070–2100). The results showed that a warming trend prolonged the length of the vegetative growth period of local cultivars through reduced vernalization, generally leading to a negative impact on yield. However, the introduction of cultivars with relatively lower vernalization demands from warmer southern to cooler northern regions could be an effective adaptation strategy to offset the negative impact of climatic change. Adjustment in cultivars increased yield at Shangzhuang and maintained it at Quzhou and Huangfanqu. Elevated CO2 would significantly increase yield in the future with or without considering the sensitivities of the selected cultivars. The inter-annual variability of yield generally increased in the A2 scenario, but decreased in the B2 scenario. Overall, winter wheat with semi-winter types or weak-winter types would grow preferentially, while cultivars with winter types would probably be reduced in future.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 151 , Issue 6 , December 2013 , pp. 836 - 848
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012 

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