Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T03:33:06.669Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Response of rice production to climate change based on self-adaptation in Fujian Province

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 May 2017

M. JIANG ,
C. L. SHI ,
Y. LIU  and
Z. Q. JIN
M. JIANG
Affiliation:
College of Crop Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
C. L. SHI
Affiliation:
Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, China
Y. LIU
Affiliation:
Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, China
Z. Q. JIN*
Affiliation:
Institute of Agricultural Economy and Information, Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, China
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: jaasjzq@163.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Climate change has greatly affected agricultural production, and will lead to further changes in cropping system, varietal type and cultivation techniques for each region. The potential effects of climate change on rice production in Fujian Province, China, were explored in the current study with CERES-Rice model and climate-change scenarios, based on the self-adaptation of rice production. The results indicated that simulated yields of early rice in the double-rice region in south-eastern Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 15·9, 18·0 and 19·2%, respectively, and correspondingly those of late rice increased by 9·2, 7·4 and 7·4% when self-adaptation adjustment was considered, compared to scenarios without that consideration. In the double-rice region in north-western Fujian, simulated yields of early rice increased by 21·2, 20·5 and 18·9% and those of late rice by 14·7, 14·8 and 7·2% under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B, respectively, when self-adaptation was considered, compared to without consideration. Similar results were obtained for the single-rice region in the mountain areas of north-western Fujian, correspondingly increasing by 4·9, 5·0 and 2·9% when self-adaptation was considered compared to when it was not. In this single-rice region, double rice might be grown in the future at the Changting site under scenarios A1 and B2. When the self-adaptation adjustment was considered, the simulated overall output of rice crops in Fujian under scenarios A2, B2 and A1B increased by 5·9, 5·2 and 5·1%, respectively. Thus, more optimistic results were obtained when the self-adaptation ability of rice production was considered.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 155 , Issue 5 , July 2017 , pp. 751 - 765
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

Joint first authors; they contributed equally to the current study.

References

REFERENCES

Bassu, S., Asseng, S., Motzo, R. & Giunta, F. (2009). Optimising sowing date of durum wheat in a variable Mediterranean environment. Field Crops Research 111, 109–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, T. R., Saarikko, R. A. & Niemi, K. J. (1996). Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland. Agricultural & Food Science in Finland 5, 329–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, C., Jin, Z. Q., Zheng, Y. F. & Liu, J. D. (2004). Assessing the impacts of doubled CO2 climate change and its variability on winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China. Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences 20, 7–12.Google Scholar
Dettori, M., Cesaraccio, C., Motroni, A., Spano, D. & Duce, P. (2011). Using CERES-Wheat to simulate durum wheat production and phenology in Southern Sardinia, Italy. Field Crops Research 120, 179–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FAO (2002). World Agriculture Towards /2030 Summary Report. Rome, Italy: FAO.Google Scholar
Fischer, G., Shah, M., Tubiello, F. V. & van Velhuizen, H. (2005). Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 360, 2067–2083.Google Scholar
Fujian Meteorological Research Institute, Resources Planning Office of Fujian Province (2008). Research Report on Sustainable Use of Agricultural Resources and Consulting System for Optimal Crop Distribution in Fujian. Fuzhou, China.Google Scholar
Gao, Z. Q., Miao, G. Y., Zhang, G. H. & Liang, X. Q. (2003). Analysis of growth, development and yield compositions of winter wheat growing in original and northern region. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 36, 31–36.Google Scholar
Hoque, M. Z. (1984). Cropping Systems in Asia. On-farm Research and Management. Los Baños, The Philippines: International Rice Research Institute.Google Scholar
IPCC (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenario. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.Google Scholar
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, UK & New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jiang, M. & Jin, Z. Q. (2009). A method to upscale the genetic parameters of CERES-Rice in regional applications. Chinese Journal of Rice Science 23, 172–178.Google Scholar
Jiang, M., Jin, Z. Q., Yang, H., Zhu, Z. C. & Lin, W. X. (2012). Rice production simulation under IPCC SRES A1B scenario in Fujian Province. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture 20, 625–634.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jin, Z. Q. & Zhu, D. W. (2008). Impacts of changes in climate and its variability on food production in northeast China. Acta Agronomica Sinica 34, 1588–1597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jin, Z. Q., Fang, J., Ge, D. K., Zheng, X. L. & Chen, H. (1994). Prospect to the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in China. Acta Agronomica Sinica 20, 186–197.Google Scholar
Jin, Z. Q., Ge, D. K., Shi, C. L. & Gao, L. Z. (2002). Several strategies of food crop production in the Northeast China Plain for adaptation to global climate change: a modeling study. Acta Agronomica Sinica 28, 24–31.Google Scholar
Jones, R. G., Noguer, M., Hassell, D. C., Hudson, D., Wilson, S. S., Jenkins, G. J. & Mitchell, J. F. B. (2004). Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios using PRECIS. Exeter, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre.Google Scholar
Liu, Y. J. & Lin, E. (2007). Effects of climate change on agriculture in different regions of China. Advances in Climate Change Research 3, 229–233.Google Scholar
Liu, Y., Wang, E. L., Yang, X. G. & Wang, J. (2010). Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biology 16, 2287–2299.Google Scholar
Lobell, D. B. & Field, C. B. (2008). Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961. Global Change Biology 14, 39–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W. & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333, 616–620.Google Scholar
Long, S. P., Ainsworth, E. A., Leakey, A. D. B., Nösberger, J. & Ort, D. R. (2006). Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312, 1918–1921.Google Scholar
Meteorological Bureau of Fujian (1990). Fujian Agricultural Climatic Resources and Regional Planning. Fuzhou, China: Fujian Science and Technology Press.Google Scholar
Olesen, J. E., Jensen, T. & Petersen, J. (2000). Sensitivity of field-scale winter wheat production in Denmark to climate variability and climate change. Climate Research 15, 221–238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Qin, P. C., Yao, F. M., Cao, X. X., Zhang, J. H. & Cao, Q. (2011). Development process of modeling impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity based on crop models. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology 32, 240–245.Google Scholar
Ritchie, J. T., Alocilja, E. C., Singh, U. & Uehara, G. (1987). IBSNAT and the CERES-Rice model. In Weather and Rice: Proceedings of the International Workshop on the Impact of Weather Parameters on Growth and Yield of Rice, 7–10 April 1986. (Eds LaRue Pollard, M. & Cervantes, E. P.), pp. 271–281. Los Baños, The Philippines: International Rice Research Institute.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, C. & Parry, M. L. (1994). Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367, 133–138.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, C., Strzepek, K. M., Major, D. C., Iglesias, A., Yates, D. N., McCluskey, A. & Hillel, D. (2004). Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: International case studies. Global Environmental Change 14, 345–360.Google Scholar
Shi, X. Z., Yu, D. S., Xu, S. X., Warner, E. D., Wang, H. J., Sun, W. X., Zhao, Y. C. & Gong, Z. T. (2010). Cross-reference for relating Genetic Soil Classification of China with WRB at different scales. Geoderma 155, 344–350.Google Scholar
Shiferaw, B., Prasanna, B. M., Hellin, J. & Bänziger, M. (2011). Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Security 3, 307–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sirotenko, O. D., Abashina, H. V. & Pavlova, V. N. (1997). Sensitivity of the Russian agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility. Climatic Change 36, 217–232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sun, R., Liang, L. & Yang, L. (2007). Estimation of daily solar radiation in China based on weather station data. Meteorological & Environmental Sciences 30, 24–27.Google Scholar
Tong, W. X. (1990). Fujian Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning. Fuzhou, China: Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning.Google Scholar
Tsvetsinskaya, E. A., Mearns, L. O., Mavromatis, T., Gao, W., McDaniel, L. & Downton, M. W. (2003). The effect of spatial scale of climatic change scenarios on simulated maize, winter wheat, and rice production in the southeastern United States. Climatic Change 60, 37–72.Google Scholar
Tubiello, F. N., Donatelli, M., Rosenzweig, C. & Stockle, C. O. (2000). Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. European Journal of Agronomy 13, 179–189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xiong, W., Xu, Y., Lin, E. & Tian, Z. (2005). Simulation experiment of RCM and crop model combination and its uncertainty assessment. Chinese Journal of Ecology 24, 741–746.Google Scholar
Xiong, W., Holman, I., Conway, D., Lin, E. & Li, Y. (2008). A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies. Ecological Modelling 213, 365–380.Google Scholar
Xiong, W., Lin, E. D., Jiang, J. H., Li, Y. & Xu, Y. L. (2010). An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China's future grain production. Acta Geographica Sinica 65, 397–406.Google Scholar
Xiong, W., Balkovič, J., van der Velde, M., Zhang, X., Izaurralde, R. C., Skalský, R., Lin, E., Mueller, N. & Obersteiner, M. (2014). A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC. Ecological Modelling 273, 128–139.Google Scholar
Yang, S. B., Shen, S. H., Zhao, X. Y., Zhao, Y. X., Xu, Y. L., Wang, Z. Y., Liu, J. & Zhang, W. W. (2010). Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Acta Agronomica Sinica 36, 1519–1528.Google Scholar
Yao, F. M., Qin, P. C., Zhang, J. H., Lin, E. D. & Boken, V. (2011). Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods. Chinese Science Bulletin 56, 729–737.Google Scholar