We present an optimal control model to simultaneously determine the optimal planting density, thinning schedules, harvest age, and revenues of an even-aged longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill) stand, an iconic species in the Southeastern United States. We assume that the forest stand is managed for timber production and carbon sequestration under different site indexes—a measurement of potential forest productivity. Our simulation results show that the optimal planting density tends to increase when longleaf pine is managed in medium and high site indexes. Furthermore, the optimal harvest age tends to be extended with payments for carbon sequestration.

We use a Bayesian approach to estimate elasticities of former Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land allocation and the impact of the US–China trade conflict on post-CRP land transitions. Economically acceptable elasticities of land exiting CRP are important for applied analysis, including market shocks and environmental policy. Taking as given the total area exiting the CRP, the Phase 1 deal raised the posterior mean of national post-CRP soybean area by 155 thousand acres and the market facilitation program by 89 thousand acres. Cross-commodity effects are important, and elasticities vary depending on the direction and magnitude of changes in net returns and payments.

This study examines the impact of land tenure rights on the adoption of short- and long-term agricultural practices and the impact of these practices on the income and food insecurity for rural households in Burkina Faso. The bivariate probit model and propensity score matching are used to analyze data collected from 4,398 rural households. The results show that ownership of permanent land rights only increases the likelihood of adopting long-term agricultural practices. In addition, adoption of short-term practices increases household income and reduces food insecurity, while adoption of long-term practices only increases household income.

Profitability, yield, and fertilizer use are compared across three different potassium (K) fertilizer rate recommendation ideologies. Existing agronomic, “build and maintain” rate recommendations (KE) are compared to profit-maximizing rates with and without taking long-run soil-test K (STK) implications into account. Regardless of starting STK, K use equilibrated over the course of 3 years irrespective of ideology. Since taking long-run STK into account did not alter ending STK and only led to a miniscule yield effect, we encourage producers to use annual profit-maximizing K rates that were 3–11% lower than KE rates and generated more profit with minimal yield loss.

We use a dynamic model of the U.S. apple industry separated into organic and conventional production to better measure the impacts of pest or disease outbreaks on producers and consumers, along with an equilibrium displacement model to simulate welfare effects from various shocks compared to a baseline. Our results show that the impacts of the outbreaks differ between organic and conventional production methods. Growers’ and consumers’ responses to shocks differ widely across the industry. Farmers and policy makers should use these findings to appropriately respond to different shocks and production methods.

Applying the difference-in-difference (DID) estimation procedure, this study quantifies the wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) induced losses in wheat yield, quantity of wheat sold, consumed, or stored, as well as wheat grain value in Bangladesh in 2016 following a disease outbreak that affected over 15,000 ha. Estimates show that the blast-induced yield loss was 540 kg ha−1 on average for households in blast-affected districts. Estimated total wheat production loss was approximately 8,205 tons worth USD 2.1 million in during the 2016 outbreak. Based on these insights, we discuss the need for long-term assured investment and concerted research efforts in controlling transboundary diseases such as wheat blast, including the importance of weather forecast driven early warning systems and the dissemination of blast-resistant varieties.

This study uses a marginal treatment effects approach and farm household rice survey data from Northern Ghana to examine the heterogeneous effects of agricultural technologies on household welfare. Results indicate significant heterogeneity in the gains from the adoption of improved rice technologies among farmers. We found significant evidence of a pattern of positive selection on unobserved gains from the adoption of agricultural technologies on rice yield and household dietary diversity scores (HDDS). Moreover, the policy-relevant treatment effects suggest that reducing the distance to sources of agricultural technologies increases rice yield and HDDS through technology adoption.

We determine optimal stocker strategies based on calving season, herd size, and the number of days of retention before marketing weaned calves. We estimate a hedonic pricing model for feeder cattle and incorporate this into a simulation model that considers the variability of cattle prices and feed costs. The profit and utility-maximizing decision for fall calving herd would be to retain weaned calves for 150-day postweaning. The producer marketing spring-born calves would prefer to sell these calves at weaning. The results are being utilized by extension to aid cattle producers in reducing their feed costs and increasing their profits.

U.S. soybean farmers are currently grappling with dicamba herbicide drift. Using a network diffusion framework that accommodates key features of soybean farmer networks, we estimate the damages incurred from dicamba drift across different regions. Under our baseline assumptions, we estimate an average yield loss of 3% and predict sizable levels of forced switching to dicamba-resistant seed in response to drift. The relative importance of drift on damage and seed choice holds across a range of economic and network assumptions. In the absence of policy, this damage may cause regional adoption rates of dicamba-resistant soybean seed to increase.

Adopting eco-friendly technologies, such as converting lawns to alternative low-input grass species, can reduce household expenditures and mitigate negative environmental impacts at the same time. However, the rate of adoption of these technologies has not been as high as expected. This study develops a behavioral framework to identify barriers to new technology adoption by incorporating both prospect theory and present bias. We apply the framework in a choice experiment to investigate the relative importance of several factors that shape decisions associated with adoption of low-input turfgrass. We find that loss aversion plays a significant role. Though consumers exhibit present bias, long-term benefits still matter to them. Insights from the behavior model suggest that marketing and government programs that promote cost–benefit-efficient technologies should focus on eliminating or reducing potential losses caused by product failure.

This study investigates the effects of genetic improvement policies on dairy production, with a particular emphasis on Artificial Insemination projects. Furthermore, we evaluate the major barriers and challenges of Artificial Insemination projects including water scarcity. Using the data-driven synthetic control method, we found evidence that the Artificial Insemination projects caused milk production to increase by 59 thousand tons on average from 2008 to 2018. This could be correlated with food security (i.e., synergies), but increased dairy production may also place strain on Senegal’s water resources (i.e. trade-offs). To achieve a more efficient outcome, Senegalese dairy policies should consider the negative externalities of these projects on water resources.

Faced with risky yields and returns, risk-averse farmers require a premium to take risks. In this paper, we estimate individual farmers’ degrees of risk aversion to adjust for the risk premium in returns and to replace the farmers’ realized returns with their certainty equivalent returns in the production function. In that way, the effect of the inputs on returns will automatically be risk-adjusted, i.e., we obtain risk-adjusted marginal effects of inputs, which can be used in decision-making support of farmers’ input choices in production. Using farm-level data from organic basmati rice smallholders in India, we illustrate this method using nonparametric production functions. The results show that the input elasticities and returns-to-scale estimates change when the farmers’ degree of risk aversion is taken into consideration.

The United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Marketing Service (USDA AMS) began publishing formula base price information in August 2021. Considerable variation in the types of cattle priced via formula has raised questions about the level of base price transparency that can be gleaned from formula base price reports. This study employs 6 years of transactions to estimate hedonic models assessing the capability of existing data to describe variation in formula base prices. Results suggest factors beyond those reported to USDA AMS by packers influence base prices. We offer suggestions for improved data collection to make hedonic modeling of base prices more effective for reporting market information.

We investigate the role of optimism bias in bull price expectations using incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments with Alabama and Tennessee cattle producers. We develop bull price prediction tasks and reward accurate predictions. We find that the EPD information provision prevents optimism bias from contaminating price expectations in the whole sample. However, we also document that, unlike buyers, sellers are prone to unrealistic optimistic expectations, and our results reveal that optimism bias can be moderated by the type of expected progeny difference information utilized, breed characteristics, and regional differences in cattle operations. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of behavioral biases.

As food producers face increasing costs, many greenhouse growers are turning to controlled environment agriculture. The use of light-emitting diode (LED) supplemental lighting systems may increase a producer’s profitability, but it also comes with a unique set of externalities. Using an online survey, we found that showing images of light pollution from supplemental LED lighting sources facilitated respondents to want more regulation with state government being the desired regulator. Several significant factors influenced survey respondents’ posttreatment preference outcomes for different levels of regulation and regulators including demographic characteristics as well as initial attitudes toward LED lighting systems before treatment.

This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method.

We develop and analyze an unexplored mechanism to reduce biorefinery supply chain costs when the feedstock is a perennial crop: adjusting the age structure, and hence yield, of the perennial feedstock. The non-monotonicity of the age-yield function introduces a non-convexity to the cost minimization problem. We show that, despite this, the problem has a solution and present analytic and numeric comparative statics, finding that larger refineries are most likely to benefit from optimizing age structure. The model is calibrated to the sugarcane industry in Brazil. The cost reductions from optimizing age, compared to the observed regional average age, are less than 1%.

The profitability of U.S. meat producers and the utility of U.S. meat consumers are impacted by the trade of meat. USDA publishes the most prominent publicly available meat trade projections. This study finds USDA projections typically underpredict meat export volumes and overpredict meat import volumes. USDA projections outperform naïve projections for beef and pork exports, but naïve projections at times outperform USDA projections for chicken exports and beef and pork imports, especially at shorter horizons. USDA projections exclude variety cuts, which comprise a sizeable share of beef and pork exports. There remains room for improvement in projecting U.S. meat trade.

The United States has a long history of providing ad hoc disaster assistance to agricultural producers. The latest version – the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) – follows five consecutive years of appropriations for disaster assistance. In response to ongoing appropriations, there is growing interest in establishing a permanent disaster program. However, with that comes concerns over the impact it could have on the existing farm safety net, particularly crop insurance. In this paper, we characterize the likely effects on crop insurance coverage levels of a permanent authorization of ERP. We assume that corn and soybean producers choose a coverage level based on the effects of that choice on the distribution of future ending wealth reflecting crop revenue, insurance indemnities, and ERP payments. We find very modest effects on crop insurance coverage level choices and crop insurance premiums collected.

We estimate the economic cost of nutrient reductions from riparian buffers in two counties in western Maryland. The costs and gains for farmers are estimated for establishing riparian buffers under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. For nutrient reductions, we utilize nitrogen and phosphorus mitigation loads from the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model and own estimates from our synoptic studies. We show that costs of reducing nutrients vary based on buffer type, its location, and the nutrient pollutant. We also show that installing riparian buffers alongside existing forests could be a more cost-effective practice for reducing nitrogen than other riparian buffers.