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Use of Forecasts in Decisionmaking: The Case of Stocker Cattle in Florida

  • Thomas H. Spreen (a1) and Carlos A. Arnade (a2)

Abstract

The decision to overwinter feeder cattle hinges directly on the forecast of spring cattle prices. An analysis of price forecasts from several alternative models is presented. The models are evaluated using both the traditional mean square criterion and alternative criteria. The alternative criteria evaluate the profitability of the decision implemented based upon the forecast.

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References

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Arnade, Carlos A.An Evaluation of Alternative Price Forecasting Mechanisms in Relation to the Florida Stocker Decision.” M.S. Thesis, University of Florida. 1982.
Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M.. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, 2nd ed. San Francisco: Holden-Day. 1976.
Box, G.E.P., and Pierce, D A.. “Distributions of Residual Autocorrelations in ARIMA Time Series Models.Journal of the American Statistical Association 64:1209. 1970.
Brandt, Jon A.Statistical and Economic Performance Evaluations of Alternative Forecasting Approaches for Livestock Prices.” Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association meetings, W. Lafayette, Indiana, July 1983.
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Beef Cattle in Florida. Bulletin No. 28. Gainesville, Florida 1977.
Gunter, D., and Westberry, G.. “The Cost and Returns of Grazing Stocker Calves on Annual Pastures in North Florida.” Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, Gainesville. 1979.
Harris, Kim S.Model Selection Among Alternative Steer Prices Forecasting Techniques.” Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association meetings, W. Lafayette, Indiana, July 1983.
Judge, G., Hill, R., Griffiths, W., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T.C.. Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons. 1982.
Nelson, C.R. Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting. San Francisco: Holden-Day. 1973.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Prices. Washington, D.C. 1960-1982.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Livestock and Meat Statistics. Washington, D.C. 1960-1982.

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Use of Forecasts in Decisionmaking: The Case of Stocker Cattle in Florida

  • Thomas H. Spreen (a1) and Carlos A. Arnade (a2)

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