Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-45l2p Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T13:09:09.205Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Daryll E. Ray ,
James W. Richardson ,
Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte  and
Kelly H. Tiller
Daryll E. Ray
Affiliation:
University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center
James W. Richardson
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte
Affiliation:
University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center
Kelly H. Tiller
Affiliation:
University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center
Get access

Abstract

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998–2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986–96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

Keywords

POLYSYS modelprice variabilitystochastic simulation
Type
Invited Paper Sessions
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 30 , Issue 1 , July 1998 , pp. 21 - 33
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Devadoss, S., Westhoff, P., Helmar, M., Grundmeier, E., Skold, K.E., Meyers, W.H., and Johnson, S.R.. “The FAPRI Modeling System: A Documentation Summary.” In Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Description and Selected Policy Applications, eds., Taylor, C.R., Johnson, S.R., and Reichelderfer, K.H., Chap. 7. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
English, B.C., Smith, E.G., Atwood, J.D., Johnson, S.R., and Oamek, G.E.. “The CARD LP Model: A Documentation Summary.” In Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Description and Selected Policy Applications, eds., Taylor, C.R., Johnson, S.R., and Reichelderfer, K.H., Chap. 5. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Ferris, J.N. “AGMOD: An Econometric Model of U.S.and World Agriculture.” In Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Description and Selected Policy Applications, eds., Taylor, C.R., Johnson, S.R., and Reichelderfer, K.H., Chap. 4. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). November 1997 U.S.Agricultural Outlook. FAPRI, University of Missouri, Columbia, December 1997.Google Scholar
Penson, J.B., and Chen, D.T.. “General Design of COMGEM: A Macroeconomic Model Emphasizing Agriculture.” In Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Description and Selected Policy Applications, eds., Taylor, C.R., Johnson, S.R., and Reichelderfer, K.H., Chap. 8. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Ray, D.E. “The 1996 Farm Bill: Implications for Farmers, Families, Consumers, and Rural Communities.” Paper presented at the National Public Policy Education Conference, Providence RI, September 1996.Google Scholar
Ray, D.E., De La Torre Ugarte, D.G., Dicks, M.R., and Tiller, K.H.. “The POLYSYS Modeling Framework: A Documentation.” Work. Pap., Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, November 1997.Google Scholar
Ray, D.E., De La Torre Ugarte, D.G., Dicks, M.R., and White, R.L.. Farm Bill Series. Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Various selections, Issue Nos. 1–8, 1995.Google Scholar
Ray, D.E., and Tiller, K.H.. “U.S. Agricultural Exports: Projected Changes Under FAIR and Potential Unanticipated Changes.” Paper presented at the Western Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings, Reno NV, July 1997.Google Scholar
Richardson, J.W., and Nixon, C.J.. “Description of FLIPSIM V: A General Firm-Level Policy Simulation Model.” Bull. No. B-1528, Texas Agr. Exp. Sta., College Station, 1986.Google Scholar
Taylor, C.R. “AGSIM: An Econometric-Simulation Model of Regional Crop and National Livestock Production in the United States.” In Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Description and Selected Policy Applications, eds., Taylor, C.R., Johnson, S.R., and Reichelderfer, K.H., Chap. 3. Ames IA: Iowa State University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Taylor, C.R. “Deterministic versus Stochastic Evaluation of the Aggregate Economic Effects of Price Support Programs.” Agr. Systems 44(1994): 461-73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar