Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T21:20:51.679Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Decision Support Aid for Beef Cattle Investment Using Expert Systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Lawrence L. Falconer
Affiliation:
Texas Agricultural Extension Service, Corpus Christi
Charles R. Long
Affiliation:
Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, Overton
James M. McGrann
Affiliation:
Texas Agricultural Extension Service, College Station
Get access

Abstract

The beef cattle investment decision provides an excellent opportunity to increase the economic efficiency of beef cattle production. The investment questions that face beef cattle producers are of interest to beef cattle producers, educators, and financial institutions involved in lending to beef cattle producing firms. This study develops a decision support aid utilizing expert system technology to assist beef cattle producers in making well-founded investment decisions with respect to the firm's beef cattle herd.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1996

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barry, P. J., Hopkin, J. A., and Baker, C. B.. Financial Management in Agriculture. Danville IL: The Interstate Printers and Publishers, Inc., 1983.Google Scholar
Bentley, E., and Shumway, C. R.. “Adaptive Planning Over the Cattle Price CycleS. J. Agr. Econ. 13(1981): 139–48.Google Scholar
Bentley, E., Waters, J. R., and Shumway, C. R.. “Determining Optimal Replacement Age of Beef Cows in the Presence of Stochastic ElementsS. J. Agr. Econ. 8(1976): 1317.Google Scholar
Brody, S. Bioenergetics and Growth. New York: Rein-hold Publishing Co., 1945.Google Scholar
Burt, O. R.Optimal Replacement Under RiskJ. Farm Econ. 47(1965):324–45.Google Scholar
Bussey, L. E. The Economics of Industrial Projects. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1978.Google Scholar
Falconer, L. L.Beef Cow Enterprise Investment/Disinvestment Analysis with Expert Systems.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Texas A&M University, December 1992.Google Scholar
Falconer, L. L., and Neibergs, J. S.. “Replacement Cow Market Development Study.” Unpublished paper, Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1991.Google Scholar
Farm Financial Standards Task Force. Recommendations of the Farm Financial Standards Task Force. American Banker's Association, Washington DC, May 1991.Google Scholar
Frasier, W. M., and Pfeiffer, G. H.. “Optimal Replacement and Management Policies for Beef CowsAmer. J. Agr. Econ. 76(November 1994):847–58.Google Scholar
Freund, J. E., and Walpole, R. E.. Mathematical Statistics, 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1987.Google Scholar
Greer, R. C., Whitman, R.W., and Woodward, R. R.. “Estimation of Probability of Beef Cows Being Culled and Calculation of Expected Herd LifeJ. Animal Sci. 51(1980): 1019.Google Scholar
Innes, R., and Carman, H.. “Tax Reform and Beef Cow Replacement StrategyWest. J. Agr. Econ. 13(1988):254–66.Google Scholar
Johnson, D. G., Conner, J. M., Josling, T., Schmitz, A., and Schuh, G. E.. Competitive Issues in the Beef Sector: Can Beef Compete in the 1990s? Humphrey Institute Rep. No. 1, Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 1989.Google Scholar
Kay, R. D., and Rister, E.. “Income Tax Effects on Beef Cow Replacement Strategy.”S. J. Agr. Econ. 9(1977):169–72.Google Scholar
Keen, P. G. W., and Morton, M. S.. Decision Support Systems: An Organizational Perspective. Reading MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1978.Google Scholar
Law, A. M., and Kelton, W. D.. Simulation Modeling and Analysis. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1982.Google Scholar
Long, C. R., Cartwright, T. C., and Fitzhugh, H. A. Jr.Systems Analysis of Sources of Genetic Variation in Efficiency of Beef Production: Cow Size and Herd ManagementJ. Animal Sci. 40(1975):409–20.Google Scholar
Long, C. R., Stewart, T. S., Cartwright, T. C., and Jenkins, T. G.. “Characterization of Cattle of a Five-Breed Diallel: I. Measures of Size, Condition, and Growth in BullsJ. Animal Sci. 49(1979):418–31.Google Scholar
McElhenney, W. H., Long, C. R., Baker, J. F., and T. C. Cartwright. “Production Characters of First-Generation Cows of a Five-Breed Diallel: Reproduction of Young Cows and Preweaning Performance of Inter Se CalvesJ. Animal Sci. 61(1985):5565.Google Scholar
McGrann, J. M.Guidelines for Production and Financial Performance Analysis for the Cow-Calf Producer.” Prepared for the National Cattlemen's Association, through Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1991.Google Scholar
McGrann, J. M., Karkosh, K. L., Falconer, L. L., and Neibergs, J. S.. “AFAES—Agricultural Financial Analysis Expert Systems.” Texas Agr. Exp. Sta., Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1990.Google Scholar
McGrann, J. M., Parker, J., Falconer, L. L., Clary, G., Neibergs, J. S., and Gutierrez, P.. “Standardized Performance Analysis (SPA) Shows Low Profit, Effects of Economy of Size and Opportunities for Change in the Cow-Calf Sector.” Texas Agr. Ext. Sen, Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1992.Google Scholar
McGrann, J. M., Parker, J., and Neibergs, J. S.. “FIN-YEAR—Farm/Ranch Financial Statement Preparation Package.” Computer program, Texas Agr. Exp. Sta., Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1991.Google Scholar
Nelsen, T. C., Long, C. R., and Cartwright, T. C.. “Post-inflection Growth in Straightbred and Crossbred Cattle: I. Heterosis for Weight, Height, and Maturing RateJ. Animal Sci. 55(1982):280–92.Google Scholar
Penson, J. B., and Taylor, C. R.. “Modeling the Interface Between Agriculture and the General Economy.” AFPC Policy Work. Pap. No. 90-13, Agricultural and Food Policy Center, Texas Agr. Exp. Sta./Agr. Ext. Ser., Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1990.Google Scholar
Perrin, R. K.Asset Replacement PrinciplesAmer. J. Agr. Econ. 54(1972):6067.Google Scholar
Richardson, J. W., Zimmel, P., Gerloff, D., Anderson, D., Helms, G., Lovell, A., Gray, A., Allen, G., Cochran, M., Wong, S., Justice, D., and Rister, M.. “CIRMAN: Crop Insurance Risk-Management Analyzer.Agricultural and Food Policy Center, Texas Agr. Exp. Sta./Agr. Ext. Ser., Dept. of Agr. Econ., Texas A&M University, 1992.Google Scholar
Rogers, L.Economics of Replacement Rates in Commercial HerdsJ. Animal Sci. 34(1972):921–25.Google Scholar
Trapp, J. N.Investment and Disinvestment Principles with Nonconstant Prices and Varying Firm Size Applied to Beef-Breeding HerdsAmer. J. Agr. Econ. 68(1986):691703.Google Scholar
Tronstad, R., and Gum, R.. “Cow Culling Decisions Adapted for Management with CARTAmer. J. Agr. Econ. 76(May 1994):237–49.Google Scholar
Yager, W. A., Greer, R. C., and Burt, O. R.. “Optimal Policies for Marketing Cull Beef CowsAmer. J. Agr. Econ. 62(1980): 456–67.Google Scholar