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Using a Climate Index to Measure Crop Yield Response

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Ruohong Cai
Affiliation:
Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Jeffrey D. Mullen
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
John C. Bergstrom
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
W. Donald Shurley
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
Michael E. Wetzstein
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia
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Abstract

Using principal component analysis, a climate index is developed to estimate the linkage between climate and crop yields. The indices based on three climate projections are then applied to forecast future crop yield responses. We identify spatial heterogeneity of crop yield responses to future climate change across a number of U.S. northern and southern states. The results indicate that future hotter/drier weather conditions will likely have significant negative impacts on southern states, whereas only mild impacts are expected in most northern states.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2013

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